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Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for a large proportion of premature deaths in low- and middle-income countries. Early CVD detection and intervention is critical in these populations, yet many existing CVD risk scores require a physical examination or lab measurements, which can be challenging in such health systems due to limited accessibility. Here we investigated the potential to use photoplethysmography (PPG), a sensing technology available on most smartphones that can potentially enable large-scale screening at low cost, for CVD risk prediction. We developed a deep learning PPG-based CVD risk score (DLS) to predict the probability of having major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death) within ten years, given only age, sex, smoking status and PPG as predictors. We compared the DLS with the office-based refit-WHO score, which adopts the shared predictors from WHO and Globorisk scores (age, sex, smoking status, height, weight and systolic blood pressure) but refitted on the UK Biobank (UKB) cohort. In UKB cohort, DLS's C-statistic (71.1%, 95% CI 69.9-72.4) was non-inferior to office-based refit-WHO score (70.9%, 95% CI 69.7-72.2; non-inferiority margin of 2.5%, p<0.01). The calibration of the DLS was satisfactory, with a 1.8% mean absolute calibration error. Adding DLS features to the office-based score increased the C-statistic by 1.0% (95% CI 0.6-1.4). DLS predicts ten-year MACE risk comparable with the office-based refit-WHO score. It provides a proof-of-concept and suggests the potential of a PPG-based approach strategies for community-based primary prevention in resource-limited regions.

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Currently, over half of the computing power at CERN GRID is used to run High Energy Physics simulations. The recent updates at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) create the need for developing more efficient simulation methods. In particular, there exists a demand for a fast simulation of the neutron Zero Degree Calorimeter, where existing Monte Carlo-based methods impose a significant computational burden. We propose an alternative approach to the problem that leverages machine learning. Our solution utilises neural network classifiers and generative models to directly simulate the response of the calorimeter. In particular, we examine the performance of variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks, expanding the GAN architecture by an additional regularisation network and a simple, yet effective postprocessing step. Our approach increases the simulation speed by 2 orders of magnitude while maintaining the high fidelity of the simulation.

Most recent 6D object pose methods use 2D optical flow to refine their results. However, the general optical flow methods typically do not consider the target's 3D shape information during matching, making them less effective in 6D object pose estimation. In this work, we propose a shape-constraint recurrent matching framework for 6D object pose estimation. We first compute a pose-induced flow based on the displacement of 2D reprojection between the initial pose and the currently estimated pose, which embeds the target's 3D shape implicitly. Then we use this pose-induced flow to construct the correlation map for the following matching iterations, which reduces the matching space significantly and is much easier to learn. Furthermore, we use networks to learn the object pose based on the current estimated flow, which facilitates the computation of the pose-induced flow for the next iteration and yields an end-to-end system for object pose. Finally, we optimize the optical flow and object pose simultaneously in a recurrent manner. We evaluate our method on three challenging 6D object pose datasets and show that it outperforms the state of the art significantly in both accuracy and efficiency.

Cerebral Microbleeds (CMBs) are chronic deposits of small blood products in the brain tissues, which have explicit relation to various cerebrovascular diseases depending on their anatomical location, including cognitive decline, intracerebral hemorrhage, and cerebral infarction. However, manual detection of CMBs is a time-consuming and error-prone process because of their sparse and tiny structural properties. The detection of CMBs is commonly affected by the presence of many CMB mimics that cause a high false-positive rate (FPR), such as calcification and pial vessels. This paper proposes a novel 3D deep learning framework that does not only detect CMBs but also inform their anatomical location in the brain (i.e., lobar, deep, and infratentorial regions). For the CMB detection task, we propose a single end-to-end model by leveraging the U-Net as a backbone with Region Proposal Network (RPN). To significantly reduce the FPs within the same single model, we develop a new scheme, containing Feature Fusion Module (FFM) that detects small candidates utilizing contextual information and Hard Sample Prototype Learning (HSPL) that mines CMB mimics and generates additional loss term called concentration loss using Convolutional Prototype Learning (CPL). The anatomical localization task does not only tell to which region the CMBs belong but also eliminate some FPs from the detection task by utilizing anatomical information. The results show that the proposed RPN that utilizes the FFM and HSPL outperforms the vanilla RPN and achieves a sensitivity of 94.66% vs. 93.33% and an average number of false positives per subject (FPavg) of 0.86 vs. 14.73. Also, the anatomical localization task further improves the detection performance by reducing the FPavg to 0.56 while maintaining the sensitivity of 94.66%.

The effectiveness of machine learning in evaluating the creditworthiness of loan applicants has been demonstrated for a long time. However, there is concern that the use of automated decision-making processes may result in unequal treatment of groups or individuals, potentially leading to discriminatory outcomes. This paper seeks to address this issue by evaluating the effectiveness of 12 leading bias mitigation methods across 5 different fairness metrics, as well as assessing their accuracy and potential profitability for financial institutions. Through our analysis, we have identified the challenges associated with achieving fairness while maintaining accuracy and profitabiliy, and have highlighted both the most successful and least successful mitigation methods. Ultimately, our research serves to bridge the gap between experimental machine learning and its practical applications in the finance industry.

Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) have become the most popular measures of market risk in Financial and Insurance fields. However, the estimation of both risk measures is challenging, because it requires the knowledge of the tail of the distribution. Therefore, tools from Extreme Value Theory are usually employed, considering that the tail data follow a Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Using the existing relations from the parameters of the baseline distribution and the limit GPD's parameters, we define highly informative priors that incorporate all the information available for the whole set of observations. We show how to perform Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm to estimate VaR and CVaR employing the highly informative priors, in the case of exponential, stable and Gamma distributions. Afterwards, we perform a thorough simulation study to compare the accuracy and precision provided by three different methods. Finally, data from a real example is analyzed to show the practical application of the methods.

Hikers and hillwalkers typically use the gradient in the direction of travel (walking slope) as the main variable in established methods for predicting walking time (via the walking speed) along a route. Research into fell-running has suggested further variables which may improve speed algorithms in this context; the gradient of the terrain (hill slope) and the level of terrain obstruction. Recent improvements in data availability, as well as widespread use of GPS tracking now make it possible to explore these variables in a walking speed model at a sufficient scale to test statistical significance. We tested various established models used to predict walking speed against public GPS data from almost 88,000 km of UK walking / hiking tracks. Tracks were filtered to remove breaks and non-walking sections. A new generalised linear model (GLM) was then used to predict walking speeds. Key differences between the GLM and established rules were that the GLM considered the gradient of the terrain (hill slope) irrespective of walking slope, as well as the terrain type and level of terrain obstruction in off-road travel. All of these factors were shown to be highly significant, and this is supported by a lower root-mean-square-error compared to existing functions. We also observed an increase in RMSE between the GLM and established methods as hill slope increases, further supporting the importance of this variable.

Human motion prediction has achieved a brilliant performance with the help of CNNs, which facilitates human-machine cooperation. However, currently, there is no work evaluating the potential risk in human motion prediction when facing adversarial attacks, which may cause danger in real applications. The adversarial attack will face two problems against human motion prediction: 1. For naturalness, pose data is highly related to the physical dynamics of human skeletons where Lp norm constraints cannot constrain the adversarial example well; 2. Unlike the pixel value in images, pose data is diverse at scale because of the different acquisition equipment and the data processing, which makes it hard to set fixed parameters to perform attacks. To solve the problems above, we propose a new adversarial attack method that perturbs the input human motion sequence by maximizing the prediction error with physical constraints. Specifically, we introduce a novel adaptable scheme that facilitates the attack to suit the scale of the target pose and two physical constraints to enhance the imperceptibility of the adversarial example. The evaluating experiments on three datasets show that the prediction errors of all target models are enlarged significantly, which means current convolution-based human motion prediction models can be easily disturbed under the proposed attack. The quantitative analysis shows that prior knowledge and semantic information modeling can be the key to the adversarial robustness of human motion predictors. The qualitative results indicate that the adversarial sample is hard to be noticed when compared frame by frame but is relatively easy to be detected when the sample is animated.

The sensitivity of loss reserving techniques to outliers in the data or deviations from model assumptions is a well known challenge. It has been shown that the popular chain-ladder reserving approach is at significant risk to such aberrant observations in that reserve estimates can be significantly shifted in the presence of even one outlier. As a consequence the chain-ladder reserving technique is non-robust. In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of reserves and mean squared errors of prediction under Mack's Model (Mack, 1993). This is done through the derivation of impact functions which are calculated by taking the first derivative of the relevant statistic of interest with respect to an observation. We also provide and discuss the impact functions for quantiles when total reserves are assumed to be lognormally distributed. Additionally, comparisons are made between the impact functions for individual accident year reserves under Mack's Model and the Bornhuetter-Ferguson methodology. It is shown that the impact of incremental claims on these statistics of interest varies widely throughout a loss triangle and is heavily dependent on other cells in the triangle. Results are illustrated using data from a Belgian non-life insurer.

As a fundamental concept in information theory, mutual information ($MI$) has been commonly applied to quantify the association between random vectors. Most existing nonparametric estimators of $MI$ have unstable statistical performance since they involve parameter tuning. We develop a consistent and powerful estimator, called \texttt{fastMI}, that does not incur any parameter tuning. Based on a copula formulation, \texttt{fastMI} estimates $MI$ by leveraging Fast Fourier transform-based estimation of the underlying density. Extensive simulation studies reveal that \texttt{fastMI} outperforms state-of-the-art estimators with improved estimation accuracy and reduced run time for large data sets. \texttt{fastMI} provides a powerful test for independence that exhibits satisfactory type I error control. Anticipating that it will be a powerful tool in estimating mutual information in a broad range of data, we develop an R package \texttt{fastMI} for broader dissemination.

Breast cancer remains a global challenge, causing over 1 million deaths globally in 2018. To achieve earlier breast cancer detection, screening x-ray mammography is recommended by health organizations worldwide and has been estimated to decrease breast cancer mortality by 20-40%. Nevertheless, significant false positive and false negative rates, as well as high interpretation costs, leave opportunities for improving quality and access. To address these limitations, there has been much recent interest in applying deep learning to mammography; however, obtaining large amounts of annotated data poses a challenge for training deep learning models for this purpose, as does ensuring generalization beyond the populations represented in the training dataset. Here, we present an annotation-efficient deep learning approach that 1) achieves state-of-the-art performance in mammogram classification, 2) successfully extends to digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT; "3D mammography"), 3) detects cancers in clinically-negative prior mammograms of cancer patients, 4) generalizes well to a population with low screening rates, and 5) outperforms five-out-of-five full-time breast imaging specialists by improving absolute sensitivity by an average of 14%. Our results demonstrate promise towards software that can improve the accuracy of and access to screening mammography worldwide.

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