Prediction of the future position of a target road user given its current position, velocity and type is formulated as a weighted average. Weights are determined from data of previously observed road users, specifically from those that are most similar to the target. This formulation results in an interpretable model with few parameters. The model is validated on a dataset of vehicles, bicycles, and pedestrians in real-world traffic situations. The model outperforms the baseline constant velocity model, wheras a baseline neural network model shows comparable performance, but this model lacks the same level of interpretability. A comparison is made with state-of-the-arts, where these show superior performance on a sparse dataset, for which it is expected that the weighted average model works less well. With some further refinements a weighted average formulation could yield a reliable and interpretable model, in constrast to one which is difficult to analyze and has a huge number of uninterpretable parameters.
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Anomaly detection among a large number of processes arises in many applications ranging from dynamic spectrum access to cybersecurity. In such problems one can often obtain noisy observations aggregated from a chosen subset of processes that conforms to a tree structure. The distribution of these observations, based on which the presence of anomalies is detected, may be only partially known. This gives rise to the need for a search strategy designed to account for both the sample complexity and the detection accuracy, as well as cope with statistical models that are known only up to some missing parameters. In this work we propose a sequential search strategy using two variations of the Generalized Local Likelihood Ratio statistic. Our proposed Hierarchical Dynamic Search (HDS) strategy is shown to be order-optimal with respect to the size of the search space and asymptotically optimal with respect to the detection accuracy. An explicit upper bound on the error probability of HDS is established for the finite sample regime. Extensive experiments are conducted, demonstrating the performance gains of HDS over existing methods.
Deep neural networks are highly susceptible to learning biases in visual data. While various methods have been proposed to mitigate such bias, the majority require explicit knowledge of the biases present in the training data in order to mitigate. We argue the relevance of exploring methods which are completely ignorant of the presence of any bias, but are capable of identifying and mitigating them. Furthermore, we propose using Bayesian neural networks with an epistemic uncertainty-weighted loss function to dynamically identify potential bias in individual training samples and to weight them during training. We find a positive correlation between samples subject to bias and higher epistemic uncertainties. Finally, we show the method has potential to mitigate visual bias on a bias benchmark dataset and on a real-world face detection problem, and we consider the merits and weaknesses of our approach.
We introduce a new constrained optimization method for policy gradient reinforcement learning, which uses two trust regions to regulate each policy update. In addition to using the proximity of one single old policy as the first trust region as done by prior works, we propose to form a second trust region through the construction of another virtual policy that represents a wide range of past policies. We then enforce the new policy to stay closer to the virtual policy, which is beneficial in case the old policy performs badly. More importantly, we propose a mechanism to automatically build the virtual policy from a memory buffer of past policies, providing a new capability for dynamically selecting appropriate trust regions during the optimization process. Our proposed method, dubbed as Memory-Constrained Policy Optimization (MCPO), is examined on a diverse suite of environments including robotic locomotion control, navigation with sparse rewards and Atari games, consistently demonstrating competitive performance against recent on-policy constrained policy gradient methods.
Cycling is a promising solution to unsustainable urban transport systems. However, prevailing bicycle network development follows a slow and piecewise process, without taking into account the structural complexity of transportation networks. Here we explore systematically the topological limitations of urban bicycle network development. For 62 cities we study different variations of growing a synthetic bicycle network between an arbitrary set of points routed on the urban street network. We find initially decreasing returns on investment until a critical threshold, posing fundamental consequences to sustainable urban planning: Cities must invest into bicycle networks with the right growth strategy, and persistently, to surpass a critical mass. We also find pronounced overlaps of synthetically grown networks in cities with well-developed existing bicycle networks, showing that our model reflects reality. Growing networks from scratch makes our approach a generally applicable starting point for sustainable urban bicycle network planning with minimal data requirements.
In the context of personalized federated learning (FL), the critical challenge is to balance local model improvement and global model tuning when the personal and global objectives may not be exactly aligned. Inspired by Bayesian hierarchical models, we develop a self-aware personalized FL method where each client can automatically balance the training of its local personal model and the global model that implicitly contributes to other clients' training. Such a balance is derived from the inter-client and intra-client uncertainty quantification. A larger inter-client variation implies more personalization is needed. Correspondingly, our method uses uncertainty-driven local training steps and aggregation rule instead of conventional local fine-tuning and sample size-based aggregation. With experimental studies on synthetic data, Amazon Alexa audio data, and public datasets such as MNIST, FEMNIST, CIFAR10, and Sent140, we show that our proposed method can achieve significantly improved personalization performance compared with the existing counterparts.
Federated learning (FL) promotes predictive model training at the Internet of things (IoT) devices by evading data collection cost in terms of energy, time, and privacy. We model the learning gain achieved by an IoT device against its participation cost as its utility. Due to the device-heterogeneity, the local model learning cost and its quality, which can be time-varying, differs from device to device. We show that this variation results in utility unfairness because the same global model is shared among the devices. By default, the master is unaware of the local model computation and transmission costs of the devices, thus it is unable to address the utility unfairness problem. Also, a device may exploit this lack of knowledge at the master to intentionally reduce its expenditure and thereby enhance its utility. We propose to control the quality of the global model shared with the devices, in each round, based on their contribution and expenditure. This is achieved by employing differential privacy to curtail global model divulgence based on the learning contribution. In addition, we devise adaptive computation and transmission policies for each device to control its expenditure in order to mitigate utility unfairness. Our results show that the proposed scheme reduces the standard deviation of the energy cost of devices by 99% in comparison to the benchmark scheme, while the standard deviation of the training loss of devices varies around 0.103.
Recognizing the type of connected devices to a network helps to perform security policies. In smart grids, identifying massive number of grid metering terminals based on network traffic analysis is almost blank and existing research has not proposed a targeted end-to-end model to solve the flow classification problem. Therefore, we proposed a hierarchical terminal recognition approach that applies the details of grid data. We have formed a two-level model structure by segmenting the grid data, which uses the statistical characteristics of network traffic and the specific behavior characteristics of grid metering terminals. Moreover, through the selection and reconstruction of features, we combine three algorithms to achieve accurate identification of terminal types that transmit network traffic. We conduct extensive experiments on a real dataset containing three types of grid metering terminals, and the results show that our research has improved performance compared to common recognition models. The combination of an autoencoder, K-Means and GradientBoost algorithm achieved the best recognition rate with F1 value of 98.3%.
Proactive dialogue system is able to lead the conversation to a goal topic and has advantaged potential in bargain, persuasion and negotiation. Current corpus-based learning manner limits its practical application in real-world scenarios. To this end, we contribute to advance the study of the proactive dialogue policy to a more natural and challenging setting, i.e., interacting dynamically with users. Further, we call attention to the non-cooperative user behavior -- the user talks about off-path topics when he/she is not satisfied with the previous topics introduced by the agent. We argue that the targets of reaching the goal topic quickly and maintaining a high user satisfaction are not always converge, because the topics close to the goal and the topics user preferred may not be the same. Towards this issue, we propose a new solution named I-Pro that can learn Proactive policy in the Interactive setting. Specifically, we learn the trade-off via a learned goal weight, which consists of four factors (dialogue turn, goal completion difficulty, user satisfaction estimation, and cooperative degree). The experimental results demonstrate I-Pro significantly outperforms baselines in terms of effectiveness and interpretability.
Recently, deep learning has achieved very promising results in visual object tracking. Deep neural networks in existing tracking methods require a lot of training data to learn a large number of parameters. However, training data is not sufficient for visual object tracking as annotations of a target object are only available in the first frame of a test sequence. In this paper, we propose to learn hierarchical features for visual object tracking by using tree structure based Recursive Neural Networks (RNN), which have fewer parameters than other deep neural networks, e.g. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). First, we learn RNN parameters to discriminate between the target object and background in the first frame of a test sequence. Tree structure over local patches of an exemplar region is randomly generated by using a bottom-up greedy search strategy. Given the learned RNN parameters, we create two dictionaries regarding target regions and corresponding local patches based on the learned hierarchical features from both top and leaf nodes of multiple random trees. In each of the subsequent frames, we conduct sparse dictionary coding on all candidates to select the best candidate as the new target location. In addition, we online update two dictionaries to handle appearance changes of target objects. Experimental results demonstrate that our feature learning algorithm can significantly improve tracking performance on benchmark datasets.
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