The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) can predict the future value of a time series based on its current and previous values, making it a powerful algorithm for handling various types of time series. Numerous studies have explored the improvement of HMM using advanced techniques, leading to the development of several variations of HMM. Despite these studies indicating the increased competitiveness of HMM compared to other advanced algorithms, few have recognized the significance and impact of incorporating multistep stochastic states into its performance. In this work, we propose a Pyramidal Hidden Markov Model (PHMM) that can capture multiple multistep stochastic states. Initially, a multistep HMM is designed for extracting short multistep stochastic states. Next, a novel time series forecasting structure is proposed based on PHMM, which utilizes pyramid-like stacking to adaptively identify long multistep stochastic states. By employing these two schemes, our model can effectively handle non-stationary and noisy data, while also establishing long-term dependencies for more accurate and comprehensive forecasting. The experimental results on diverse multivariate time series datasets convincingly demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed PHMM compared to its competitive peers in time series forecasting.
相關內容
Interactive Natural Language Processing (iNLP) has emerged as a novel paradigm within the field of NLP, aimed at addressing limitations in existing frameworks while aligning with the ultimate goals of artificial intelligence. This paradigm considers language models as agents capable of observing, acting, and receiving feedback iteratively from external entities. Specifically, language models in this context can: (1) interact with humans for better understanding and addressing user needs, personalizing responses, aligning with human values, and improving the overall user experience; (2) interact with knowledge bases for enriching language representations with factual knowledge, enhancing the contextual relevance of responses, and dynamically leveraging external information to generate more accurate and informed responses; (3) interact with models and tools for effectively decomposing and addressing complex tasks, leveraging specialized expertise for specific subtasks, and fostering the simulation of social behaviors; and (4) interact with environments for learning grounded representations of language, and effectively tackling embodied tasks such as reasoning, planning, and decision-making in response to environmental observations. This paper offers a comprehensive survey of iNLP, starting by proposing a unified definition and framework of the concept. We then provide a systematic classification of iNLP, dissecting its various components, including interactive objects, interaction interfaces, and interaction methods. We proceed to delve into the evaluation methodologies used in the field, explore its diverse applications, scrutinize its ethical and safety issues, and discuss prospective research directions. This survey serves as an entry point for researchers who are interested in this rapidly evolving area and offers a broad view of the current landscape and future trajectory of iNLP.
While Reinforcement Learning (RL) achieves tremendous success in sequential decision-making problems of many domains, it still faces key challenges of data inefficiency and the lack of interpretability. Interestingly, many researchers have leveraged insights from the causality literature recently, bringing forth flourishing works to unify the merits of causality and address well the challenges from RL. As such, it is of great necessity and significance to collate these Causal Reinforcement Learning (CRL) works, offer a review of CRL methods, and investigate the potential functionality from causality toward RL. In particular, we divide existing CRL approaches into two categories according to whether their causality-based information is given in advance or not. We further analyze each category in terms of the formalization of different models, ranging from the Markov Decision Process (MDP), Partially Observed Markov Decision Process (POMDP), Multi-Arm Bandits (MAB), and Dynamic Treatment Regime (DTR). Moreover, we summarize the evaluation matrices and open sources while we discuss emerging applications, along with promising prospects for the future development of CRL.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been successfully used in many problems involving graph-structured data, achieving state-of-the-art performance. GNNs typically employ a message-passing scheme, in which every node aggregates information from its neighbors using a permutation-invariant aggregation function. Standard well-examined choices such as the mean or sum aggregation functions have limited capabilities, as they are not able to capture interactions among neighbors. In this work, we formalize these interactions using an information-theoretic framework that notably includes synergistic information. Driven by this definition, we introduce the Graph Ordering Attention (GOAT) layer, a novel GNN component that captures interactions between nodes in a neighborhood. This is achieved by learning local node orderings via an attention mechanism and processing the ordered representations using a recurrent neural network aggregator. This design allows us to make use of a permutation-sensitive aggregator while maintaining the permutation-equivariance of the proposed GOAT layer. The GOAT model demonstrates its increased performance in modeling graph metrics that capture complex information, such as the betweenness centrality and the effective size of a node. In practical use-cases, its superior modeling capability is confirmed through its success in several real-world node classification benchmarks.
Technology ecosystems often undergo significant transformations as they mature. For example, telephony, the Internet, and PCs all started with a single provider, but in the United States each is now served by a competitive market that uses comprehensive and universal technology standards to provide compatibility. This white paper presents our view on how the cloud ecosystem, barely over fifteen years old, could evolve as it matures.
This paper shows that masked autoencoders (MAE) are scalable self-supervised learners for computer vision. Our MAE approach is simple: we mask random patches of the input image and reconstruct the missing pixels. It is based on two core designs. First, we develop an asymmetric encoder-decoder architecture, with an encoder that operates only on the visible subset of patches (without mask tokens), along with a lightweight decoder that reconstructs the original image from the latent representation and mask tokens. Second, we find that masking a high proportion of the input image, e.g., 75%, yields a nontrivial and meaningful self-supervisory task. Coupling these two designs enables us to train large models efficiently and effectively: we accelerate training (by 3x or more) and improve accuracy. Our scalable approach allows for learning high-capacity models that generalize well: e.g., a vanilla ViT-Huge model achieves the best accuracy (87.8%) among methods that use only ImageNet-1K data. Transfer performance in downstream tasks outperforms supervised pre-training and shows promising scaling behavior.
Recently, a considerable literature has grown up around the theme of Graph Convolutional Network (GCN). How to effectively leverage the rich structural information in complex graphs, such as knowledge graphs with heterogeneous types of entities and relations, is a primary open challenge in the field. Most GCN methods are either restricted to graphs with a homogeneous type of edges (e.g., citation links only), or focusing on representation learning for nodes only instead of jointly propagating and updating the embeddings of both nodes and edges for target-driven objectives. This paper addresses these limitations by proposing a novel framework, namely the Knowledge Embedding based Graph Convolutional Network (KE-GCN), which combines the power of GCNs in graph-based belief propagation and the strengths of advanced knowledge embedding (a.k.a. knowledge graph embedding) methods, and goes beyond. Our theoretical analysis shows that KE-GCN offers an elegant unification of several well-known GCN methods as specific cases, with a new perspective of graph convolution. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show the advantageous performance of KE-GCN over strong baseline methods in the tasks of knowledge graph alignment and entity classification.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently been used for node and graph classification tasks with great success, but GNNs model dependencies among the attributes of nearby neighboring nodes rather than dependencies among observed node labels. In this work, we consider the task of inductive node classification using GNNs in supervised and semi-supervised settings, with the goal of incorporating label dependencies. Because current GNNs are not universal (i.e., most-expressive) graph representations, we propose a general collective learning approach to increase the representation power of any existing GNN. Our framework combines ideas from collective classification with self-supervised learning, and uses a Monte Carlo approach to sampling embeddings for inductive learning across graphs. We evaluate performance on five real-world network datasets and demonstrate consistent, significant improvement in node classification accuracy, for a variety of state-of-the-art GNNs.
Knowledge graph (KG) embedding encodes the entities and relations from a KG into low-dimensional vector spaces to support various applications such as KG completion, question answering, and recommender systems. In real world, knowledge graphs (KGs) are dynamic and evolve over time with addition or deletion of triples. However, most existing models focus on embedding static KGs while neglecting dynamics. To adapt to the changes in a KG, these models need to be re-trained on the whole KG with a high time cost. In this paper, to tackle the aforementioned problem, we propose a new context-aware Dynamic Knowledge Graph Embedding (DKGE) method which supports the embedding learning in an online fashion. DKGE introduces two different representations (i.e., knowledge embedding and contextual element embedding) for each entity and each relation, in the joint modeling of entities and relations as well as their contexts, by employing two attentive graph convolutional networks, a gate strategy, and translation operations. This effectively helps limit the impacts of a KG update in certain regions, not in the entire graph, so that DKGE can rapidly acquire the updated KG embedding by a proposed online learning algorithm. Furthermore, DKGE can also learn KG embedding from scratch. Experiments on the tasks of link prediction and question answering in a dynamic environment demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of DKGE.
We investigate a lattice-structured LSTM model for Chinese NER, which encodes a sequence of input characters as well as all potential words that match a lexicon. Compared with character-based methods, our model explicitly leverages word and word sequence information. Compared with word-based methods, lattice LSTM does not suffer from segmentation errors. Gated recurrent cells allow our model to choose the most relevant characters and words from a sentence for better NER results. Experiments on various datasets show that lattice LSTM outperforms both word-based and character-based LSTM baselines, achieving the best results.
Recent advance in fluorescence microscopy enables acquisition of 3D image volumes with better quality and deeper penetration into tissue. Segmentation is a required step to characterize and analyze biological structures in the images. 3D segmentation using deep learning has achieved promising results in microscopy images. One issue is that deep learning techniques require a large set of groundtruth data which is impractical to annotate manually for microscopy volumes. This paper describes a 3D nuclei segmentation method using 3D convolutional neural networks. A set of synthetic volumes and the corresponding groundtruth volumes are generated automatically using a generative adversarial network. Segmentation results demonstrate that our proposed method is capable of segmenting nuclei successfully in 3D for various data sets.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191