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We study optimal data pooling for shared learning in two common maintenance operations: condition-based maintenance and spare parts management. We consider a set of systems subject to Poisson input -- the degradation or demand process -- that are coupled through an a-priori unknown rate. Decision problems involving these systems are high-dimensional Markov decision processes (MDPs) and hence notoriously difficult to solve. We present a decomposition result that reduces such an MDP to two-dimensional MDPs, enabling structural analyses and computations. Leveraging this decomposition, we (i) demonstrate that pooling data can lead to significant cost reductions compared to not pooling, and (ii) show that the optimal policy for the condition-based maintenance problem is a control limit policy, while for the spare parts management problem, it is an order-up-to level policy, both dependent on the pooled data.

We describe a quantum algorithm based on an interior point method for solving a linear program with $n$ inequality constraints on $d$ variables. The algorithm explicitly returns a feasible solution that is $\epsilon$-close to optimal, and runs in time $\sqrt{n}\, \mathrm{poly}(d,\log(n),\log(1/\varepsilon))$ which is sublinear for tall linear programs (i.e., $n \gg d$). Our algorithm speeds up the Newton step in the state-of-the-art interior point method of Lee and Sidford [FOCS '14]. This requires us to efficiently approximate the Hessian and gradient of the barrier function, and these are our main contributions. To approximate the Hessian, we describe a quantum algorithm for the spectral approximation of $A^T A$ for a tall matrix $A \in \mathbb R^{n \times d}$. The algorithm uses leverage score sampling in combination with Grover search, and returns a $\delta$-approximation by making $O(\sqrt{nd}/\delta)$ row queries to $A$. This generalizes an earlier quantum speedup for graph sparsification by Apers and de Wolf [FOCS '20]. To approximate the gradient, we use a recent quantum algorithm for multivariate mean estimation by Cornelissen, Hamoudi and Jerbi [STOC '22]. While a naive implementation introduces a dependence on the condition number of the Hessian, we avoid this by pre-conditioning our random variable using our quantum algorithm for spectral approximation.

Simply-verifiable mathematical conditions for existence, uniqueness and explicit analytical computation of minimal adversarial paths (MAP) and minimal adversarial distances (MAD) for (locally) uniquely-invertible classifiers, for generalized linear models (GLM), and for entropic AI (EAI) are formulated and proven. Practical computation of MAP and MAD, their comparison and interpretations for various classes of AI tools (for neuronal networks, boosted random forests, GLM and EAI) are demonstrated on the common synthetic benchmarks: on a double Swiss roll spiral and its extensions, as well as on the two biomedical data problems (for the health insurance claim predictions, and for the heart attack lethality classification). On biomedical applications it is demonstrated how MAP provides unique minimal patient-specific risk-mitigating interventions in the predefined subsets of accessible control variables.

Thanks to the singularity of the solution of linear subdiffusion problems, most time-stepping methods on uniform meshes can result in $O(\tau)$ accuracy where $\tau$ denotes the time step. The present work aims to discover the reason why some type of Crank-Nicolson schemes (the averaging Crank-Nicolson scheme) for the subdiffusion can only yield $O(\tau^\alpha)$$(\alpha<1)$ accuracy, which is much lower than the desired. The existing well developed error analysis for the subdiffusion, which has been successfully applied to many time-stepping methods such as the fractional BDF-$p (1\leq p\leq 6)$, all requires singular points be out of the path of contour integrals involved. The averaging Crank-Nicolson scheme in this work is quite natural but fails to meet this requirement. By resorting to the residue theorem, some novel sharp error analysis is developed in this study, upon which correction methods are further designed to obtain the optimal $O(\tau^2)$ accuracy. All results are verified by numerical tests.

Stress prediction in porous materials and structures is challenging due to the high computational cost associated with direct numerical simulations. Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) based architectures have recently been proposed as surrogates to approximate and extrapolate the solution of such multiscale simulations. These methodologies are usually limited to 2D problems due to the high computational cost of 3D voxel based CNNs. We propose a novel geometric learning approach based on a Graph Neural Network (GNN) that efficiently deals with three-dimensional problems by performing convolutions over 2D surfaces only. Following our previous developments using pixel-based CNN, we train the GNN to automatically add local fine-scale stress corrections to an inexpensively computed coarse stress prediction in the porous structure of interest. Our method is Bayesian and generates densities of stress fields, from which credible intervals may be extracted. As a second scientific contribution, we propose to improve the extrapolation ability of our network by deploying a strategy of online physics-based corrections. Specifically, we condition the posterior predictions of our probabilistic predictions to satisfy partial equilibrium at the microscale, at the inference stage. This is done using an Ensemble Kalman algorithm, to ensure tractability of the Bayesian conditioning operation. We show that this innovative methodology allows us to alleviate the effect of undesirable biases observed in the outputs of the uncorrected GNN, and improves the accuracy of the predictions in general.

To improve the predictability of complex computational models in the experimentally-unknown domains, we propose a Bayesian statistical machine learning framework utilizing the Dirichlet distribution that combines results of several imperfect models. This framework can be viewed as an extension of Bayesian stacking. To illustrate the method, we study the ability of Bayesian model averaging and mixing techniques to mine nuclear masses. We show that the global and local mixtures of models reach excellent performance on both prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification and are preferable to classical Bayesian model averaging. Additionally, our statistical analysis indicates that improving model predictions through mixing rather than mixing of corrected models leads to more robust extrapolations.

The Causal Roadmap outlines a systematic approach to our research endeavors: define quantity of interest, evaluate needed assumptions, conduct statistical estimation, and carefully interpret of results. At the estimation step, it is essential that the estimation algorithm be chosen thoughtfully for its theoretical properties and expected performance. Simulations can help researchers gain a better understanding of an estimator's statistical performance under conditions unique to the real-data application. This in turn can inform the rigorous pre-specification of a Statistical Analysis Plan (SAP), not only stating the estimand (e.g., G-computation formula), the estimator (e.g., targeted minimum loss-based estimation [TMLE]), and adjustment variables, but also the implementation of the estimator -- including nuisance parameter estimation and approach for variance estimation. Doing so helps ensure valid inference (e.g., 95% confidence intervals with appropriate coverage). Failing to pre-specify estimation can lead to data dredging and inflated Type-I error rates.

In this paper, we propose a generic algorithm to train machine learning-based subgrid parametrizations online, i.e., with $\textit{a posteriori}$ loss functions for non-differentiable numerical solvers. The proposed approach leverage neural emulators to train an approximation of the reduced state-space solver, which is then used to allows gradient propagation through temporal integration steps. The algorithm is able to recover most of the benefit of online strategies without having to compute the gradient of the original solver. It is demonstrated that training the neural emulator and parametrization components separately with respective loss quantities is necessary in order to minimize the propagation of some approximation bias.

Artificial neural networks thrive in solving the classification problem for a particular rigid task, acquiring knowledge through generalized learning behaviour from a distinct training phase. The resulting network resembles a static entity of knowledge, with endeavours to extend this knowledge without targeting the original task resulting in a catastrophic forgetting. Continual learning shifts this paradigm towards networks that can continually accumulate knowledge over different tasks without the need to retrain from scratch. We focus on task incremental classification, where tasks arrive sequentially and are delineated by clear boundaries. Our main contributions concern 1) a taxonomy and extensive overview of the state-of-the-art, 2) a novel framework to continually determine the stability-plasticity trade-off of the continual learner, 3) a comprehensive experimental comparison of 11 state-of-the-art continual learning methods and 4 baselines. We empirically scrutinize method strengths and weaknesses on three benchmarks, considering Tiny Imagenet and large-scale unbalanced iNaturalist and a sequence of recognition datasets. We study the influence of model capacity, weight decay and dropout regularization, and the order in which the tasks are presented, and qualitatively compare methods in terms of required memory, computation time, and storage.

When and why can a neural network be successfully trained? This article provides an overview of optimization algorithms and theory for training neural networks. First, we discuss the issue of gradient explosion/vanishing and the more general issue of undesirable spectrum, and then discuss practical solutions including careful initialization and normalization methods. Second, we review generic optimization methods used in training neural networks, such as SGD, adaptive gradient methods and distributed methods, and theoretical results for these algorithms. Third, we review existing research on the global issues of neural network training, including results on bad local minima, mode connectivity, lottery ticket hypothesis and infinite-width analysis.