Over the past few years, numerous computational models have been developed to solve Optimal Transport (OT) in a stochastic setting, where distributions are represented by samples. In such situations, the goal is to find a transport map that has good generalization properties on unseen data, ideally the closest map to the ground truth, unknown in practical settings. However, in the absence of ground truth, no quantitative criterion has been put forward to measure its generalization performance although it is crucial for model selection. We propose to leverage the Brenier formulation of OT to perform this task. Theoretically, we show that this formulation guarantees that, up to a distortion parameter that depends on the smoothness/strong convexity and a statistical deviation term, the selected map achieves the lowest quadratic error to the ground truth. This criterion, estimated via convex optimization, enables parameter and model selection among entropic regularization of OT, input convex neural networks and smooth and strongly convex nearest-Brenier (SSNB) models. Last, we make an experiment questioning the use of OT in Domain-Adaptation. Thanks to the criterion, we can identify the potential that is closest to the true OT map between the source and the target and we observe that this selected potential is not the one that performs best for the downstream transfer classification task.
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This paper addresses the problem of multi-step time series forecasting for non-stationary signals that can present sudden changes. Current state-of-the-art deep learning forecasting methods, often trained with variants of the MSE, lack the ability to provide sharp predictions in deterministic and probabilistic contexts. To handle these challenges, we propose to incorporate shape and temporal criteria in the training objective of deep models. We define shape and temporal similarities and dissimilarities, based on a smooth relaxation of Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and Temporal Distortion Index (TDI), that enable to build differentiable loss functions and positive semi-definite (PSD) kernels. With these tools, we introduce DILATE (DIstortion Loss including shApe and TimE), a new objective for deterministic forecasting, that explicitly incorporates two terms supporting precise shape and temporal change detection. For probabilistic forecasting, we introduce STRIPE++ (Shape and Time diverRsIty in Probabilistic forEcasting), a framework for providing a set of sharp and diverse forecasts, where the structured shape and time diversity is enforced with a determinantal point process (DPP) diversity loss. Extensive experiments and ablations studies on synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the benefits of leveraging shape and time features in time series forecasting.
This paper introduces a novel and generic framework to solve the flagship task of supervised labeled graph prediction by leveraging Optimal Transport tools. We formulate the problem as regression with the Fused Gromov-Wasserstein (FGW) loss and propose a predictive model relying on a FGW barycenter whose weights depend on inputs. First we introduce a non-parametric estimator based on kernel ridge regression for which theoretical results such as consistency and excess risk bound are proved. Next we propose an interpretable parametric model where the barycenter weights are modeled with a neural network and the graphs on which the FGW barycenter is calculated are additionally learned. Numerical experiments show the strength of the method and its ability to interpolate in the labeled graph space on simulated data and on a difficult metabolic identification problem where it can reach very good performance with very little engineering.
Finite order Markov models are theoretically well-studied models for dependent categorical data. Despite their generality, application in empirical work when the order is larger than one is quite rare. Practitioners avoid using higher order Markov models because (1) the number of parameters grow exponentially with the order, (2) the interpretation is often difficult. Mixture of transition distribution models (MTD) were introduced to overcome both limitations. MTD represent higher order Markov models as a convex mixture of single step Markov chains, reducing the number of parameters and increasing the interpretability. Nevertheless, in practice, estimation of MTD models with large orders are still limited because of curse of dimensionality and high algorithm complexity. Here, we prove that if only few lags are relevant we can consistently and efficiently recover the lags and estimate the transition probabilities of high order MTD models. The key innovation is a recursive procedure for the selection of the relevant lags of the model. Our results are based on (1) a new structural result of the MTD and (2) an improved martingale concentration inequality. Our theoretical results are illustrated through simulations.
Uncertainty quantification of predictive models is crucial in decision-making problems. Conformal prediction is a general and theoretically sound answer. However, it requires exchangeable data, excluding time series. While recent works tackled this issue, we argue that Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI, Gibbs and Cand{\`e}s, 2021), developed for distribution-shift time series, is a good procedure for time series with general dependency. We theoretically analyse the impact of the learning rate on its efficiency in the exchangeable and auto-regressive case. We propose a parameter-free method, AgACI, that adaptively builds upon ACI based on online expert aggregation. We lead extensive fair simulations against competing methods that advocate for ACI's use in time series. We conduct a real case study: electricity price forecasting. The proposed aggregation algorithm provides efficient prediction intervals for day-ahead forecasting. All the code and data to reproduce the experiments is made available.
Conventional supervised learning methods, especially deep ones, are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) examples, largely because the learned representation mixes the semantic factor with the variation factor due to their domain-specific correlation, while only the semantic factor causes the output. To address the problem, we propose a Causal Semantic Generative model (CSG) based on a causal reasoning so that the two factors are modeled separately, and develop methods for OOD prediction from a single training domain, which is common and challenging. The methods are based on the causal invariance principle, with a novel design for both efficient learning and easy prediction. Theoretically, we prove that under certain conditions, CSG can identify the semantic factor by fitting training data, and this semantic-identification guarantees the boundedness of OOD generalization error and the success of adaptation. Empirical study shows improved OOD performance over prevailing baselines.
While recent studies on semi-supervised learning have shown remarkable progress in leveraging both labeled and unlabeled data, most of them presume a basic setting of the model is randomly initialized. In this work, we consider semi-supervised learning and transfer learning jointly, leading to a more practical and competitive paradigm that can utilize both powerful pre-trained models from source domain as well as labeled/unlabeled data in the target domain. To better exploit the value of both pre-trained weights and unlabeled target examples, we introduce adaptive consistency regularization that consists of two complementary components: Adaptive Knowledge Consistency (AKC) on the examples between the source and target model, and Adaptive Representation Consistency (ARC) on the target model between labeled and unlabeled examples. Examples involved in the consistency regularization are adaptively selected according to their potential contributions to the target task. We conduct extensive experiments on several popular benchmarks including CUB-200-2011, MIT Indoor-67, MURA, by fine-tuning the ImageNet pre-trained ResNet-50 model. Results show that our proposed adaptive consistency regularization outperforms state-of-the-art semi-supervised learning techniques such as Pseudo Label, Mean Teacher, and MixMatch. Moreover, our algorithm is orthogonal to existing methods and thus able to gain additional improvements on top of MixMatch and FixMatch. Our code is available at //github.com/SHI-Labs/Semi-Supervised-Transfer-Learning.
One of the central problems in machine learning is domain adaptation. Unlike past theoretical work, we consider a new model for subpopulation shift in the input or representation space. In this work, we propose a provably effective framework for domain adaptation based on label propagation. In our analysis, we use a simple but realistic ``expansion'' assumption, proposed in \citet{wei2021theoretical}. Using a teacher classifier trained on the source domain, our algorithm not only propagates to the target domain but also improves upon the teacher. By leveraging existing generalization bounds, we also obtain end-to-end finite-sample guarantees on the entire algorithm. In addition, we extend our theoretical framework to a more general setting of source-to-target transfer based on a third unlabeled dataset, which can be easily applied in various learning scenarios.
This work presents a new strategy for multi-class classification that requires no class-specific labels, but instead leverages pairwise similarity between examples, which is a weaker form of annotation. The proposed method, meta classification learning, optimizes a binary classifier for pairwise similarity prediction and through this process learns a multi-class classifier as a submodule. We formulate this approach, present a probabilistic graphical model for it, and derive a surprisingly simple loss function that can be used to learn neural network-based models. We then demonstrate that this same framework generalizes to the supervised, unsupervised cross-task, and semi-supervised settings. Our method is evaluated against state of the art in all three learning paradigms and shows a superior or comparable accuracy, providing evidence that learning multi-class classification without multi-class labels is a viable learning option.
We propose a flipped-Adversarial AutoEncoder (FAAE) that simultaneously trains a generative model G that maps an arbitrary latent code distribution to a data distribution and an encoder E that embodies an "inverse mapping" that encodes a data sample into a latent code vector. Unlike previous hybrid approaches that leverage adversarial training criterion in constructing autoencoders, FAAE minimizes re-encoding errors in the latent space and exploits adversarial criterion in the data space. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed framework produces sharper reconstructed images while at the same time enabling inference that captures rich semantic representation of data.
We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empirical likelihood, and we provide a number of finite-sample and asymptotic results characterizing the theoretical performance of the estimator. In particular, we show that our procedure comes with certificates of optimality, achieving (in some scenarios) faster rates of convergence than empirical risk minimization by virtue of automatically balancing bias and variance. We give corroborating empirical evidence showing that in practice, the estimator indeed trades between variance and absolute performance on a training sample, improving out-of-sample (test) performance over standard empirical risk minimization for a number of classification problems.
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