Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values is an important problem in many fields, including health care, astronomy, and climate. State-of-the-art methods for the task estimate only marginal distributions of observations in single channels and at single timepoints, assuming a fixed-shape parametric distribution. In this work, we propose a novel model, ProFITi, for probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled time series with missing values using conditional normalizing flows. The model learns joint distributions over the future values of the time series conditioned on past observations and queried channels and times, without assuming any fixed shape of the underlying distribution. As model components, we introduce a novel invertible triangular attention layer and an invertible non-linear activation function on and onto the whole real line. We conduct extensive experiments on four datasets and demonstrate that the proposed model provides $4$ times higher likelihood over the previously best model.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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We consider the aeroelastic simulation of flexible mechanical structures submerged in subsonic fluid flows at low Mach numbers. The nonlinear kinematics of flexible bodies are described in the total Lagrangian formulation and discretized by finite elements. The aerodynamic loads are computed using the unsteady vortex-lattice method wherein a free wake is tracked over time. Each implicit time step in the dynamic simulation then requires solving a nonlinear equation system in the structural variables with additional aerodynamic load terms. Our focus here is on the efficient numerical solution of this system by accelerating the Newton algorithm. The particular structure of the aeroelastic nonlinear system suggests the structural derivative as an approximation to the full derivative in the linear Newton system. We investigate and compare two promising algorithms based in this approximation, a quasi-Newton type algorithm and a novel inexact Newton algorithm. Numerical experiments are performed on a flexible plate and on a wind turbine. Our computational results show that the approximation can indeed accelerate the Newton algorithm substantially. Surprisingly, the theoretically preferable inexact Newton algorithm is much slower than the quasi-Newton algorithm, which motivates further research to speed up derivative evaluations.
Successive interference cancellation (SIC) is used to approach the achievable information rates (AIRs) of joint detection and decoding for long-haul optical fiber links. The AIRs of memoryless ring constellations are compared to those of circularly symmetric complex Gaussian modulation for surrogate channel models with correlated phase noise. Simulations are performed for 1000 km of standard single-mode fiber with ideal Raman amplification. In this setup, 32 rings and 16 SIC-stages with Gaussian message-passing receivers achieve the AIR peaks of previous work. The computational complexity scales in proportion to the number of SIC-stages, where one stage has the complexity of separate detection and decoding.
Masked time series modeling has recently gained much attention as a self-supervised representation learning strategy for time series. Inspired by masked image modeling in computer vision, recent works first patchify and partially mask out time series, and then train Transformers to capture the dependencies between patches by predicting masked patches from unmasked patches. However, we argue that capturing such patch dependencies might not be an optimal strategy for time series representation learning; rather, learning to embed patches independently results in better time series representations. Specifically, we propose to use 1) the simple patch reconstruction task, which autoencode each patch without looking at other patches, and 2) the simple patch-wise MLP that embeds each patch independently. In addition, we introduce complementary contrastive learning to hierarchically capture adjacent time series information efficiently. Our proposed method improves time series forecasting and classification performance compared to state-of-the-art Transformer-based models, while it is more efficient in terms of the number of parameters and training/inference time. Code is available at this repository: //github.com/seunghan96/pits.
Effective coordination is crucial for motion control with reinforcement learning, especially as the complexity of agents and their motions increases. However, many existing methods struggle to account for the intricate dependencies between joints. We introduce CoordiGraph, a novel architecture that leverages subequivariant principles from physics to enhance coordination of motion control with reinforcement learning. This method embeds the principles of equivariance as inherent patterns in the learning process under gravity influence, which aids in modeling the nuanced relationships between joints vital for motion control. Through extensive experimentation with sophisticated agents in diverse environments, we highlight the merits of our approach. Compared to current leading methods, CoordiGraph notably enhances generalization and sample efficiency.
Determining the optimal fidelity for the transmission of quantum information over noisy quantum channels is one of the central problems in quantum information theory. Recently, [Berta-Borderi-Fawzi-Scholz, Mathematical Programming, 2021] introduced an asymptotically converging semidefinite programming hierarchy of outer bounds for this quantity. However, the size of the semidefinite programs (SDPs) grows exponentially with respect to the level of the hierarchy, thus making their computation unscalable. In this work, by exploiting the symmetries in the SDP, we show that, for a fixed output dimension of the quantum channel, we can compute the SDP in time polynomial with respect to the level of the hierarchy and input dimension. As a direct consequence of our result, the optimal fidelity can be approximated with an accuracy of $\epsilon$ in $\mathrm{poly}(1/\epsilon, \text{input dimension})$ time.
We propose tensor time series imputation when the missing pattern in the tensor data can be general, as long as any two data positions along a tensor fibre are both observed for enough time points. The method is based on a tensor time series factor model with Tucker decomposition of the common component. One distinguished feature of the tensor time series factor model used is that there can be weak factors in the factor loadings matrix for each mode. This reflects reality better when real data can have weak factors which drive only groups of observed variables, for instance, a sector factor in financial market driving only stocks in a particular sector. Using the data with missing entries, asymptotic normality is derived for rows of estimated factor loadings, while consistent covariance matrix estimation enables us to carry out inferences. As a first in the literature, we also propose a ratio-based estimator for the rank of the core tensor under general missing patterns. Rates of convergence are spelt out for the imputations from the estimated tensor factor models. We introduce a new measure for gauging imputation performances, and simulation results show that our imputation procedure works well, with asymptotic normality and corresponding inferences also demonstrated. Re-imputation performances are also gauged when we demonstrate that using slightly larger rank then estimated gives superior re-imputation performances. An NYC taxi traffic data set is also analyzed by imposing general missing patterns and gauging the imputation performances.
We consider the problem of explaining the predictions of graph neural networks (GNNs), which otherwise are considered as black boxes. Existing methods invariably focus on explaining the importance of graph nodes or edges but ignore the substructures of graphs, which are more intuitive and human-intelligible. In this work, we propose a novel method, known as SubgraphX, to explain GNNs by identifying important subgraphs. Given a trained GNN model and an input graph, our SubgraphX explains its predictions by efficiently exploring different subgraphs with Monte Carlo tree search. To make the tree search more effective, we propose to use Shapley values as a measure of subgraph importance, which can also capture the interactions among different subgraphs. To expedite computations, we propose efficient approximation schemes to compute Shapley values for graph data. Our work represents the first attempt to explain GNNs via identifying subgraphs explicitly and directly. Experimental results show that our SubgraphX achieves significantly improved explanations, while keeping computations at a reasonable level.
Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.
Co-evolving time series appears in a multitude of applications such as environmental monitoring, financial analysis, and smart transportation. This paper aims to address the following challenges, including (C1) how to incorporate explicit relationship networks of the time series; (C2) how to model the implicit relationship of the temporal dynamics. We propose a novel model called Network of Tensor Time Series, which is comprised of two modules, including Tensor Graph Convolutional Network (TGCN) and Tensor Recurrent Neural Network (TRNN). TGCN tackles the first challenge by generalizing Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) for flat graphs to tensor graphs, which captures the synergy between multiple graphs associated with the tensors. TRNN leverages tensor decomposition to model the implicit relationships among co-evolving time series. The experimental results on five real-world datasets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.
Image segmentation is an important component of many image understanding systems. It aims to group pixels in a spatially and perceptually coherent manner. Typically, these algorithms have a collection of parameters that control the degree of over-segmentation produced. It still remains a challenge to properly select such parameters for human-like perceptual grouping. In this work, we exploit the diversity of segments produced by different choices of parameters. We scan the segmentation parameter space and generate a collection of image segmentation hypotheses (from highly over-segmented to under-segmented). These are fed into a cost minimization framework that produces the final segmentation by selecting segments that: (1) better describe the natural contours of the image, and (2) are more stable and persistent among all the segmentation hypotheses. We compare our algorithm's performance with state-of-the-art algorithms, showing that we can achieve improved results. We also show that our framework is robust to the choice of segmentation kernel that produces the initial set of hypotheses.
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