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In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach for analyzing task fMRI data that simultaneously detects activation signatures and background connectivity. Our modeling involves a new hybrid tensor spatial-temporal basis strategy that enables scalable computing yet captures nearby and distant intervoxel correlation and long-memory temporal correlation. The spatial basis involves a composite hybrid transform with two levels: the first accounts for within-ROI correlation, and second between-ROI distant correlation. We demonstrate in simulations how our basis space regression modeling strategy increases sensitivity for identifying activation signatures, partly driven by the induced background connectivity that itself can be summarized to reveal biological insights. This strategy leads to computationally scalable fully Bayesian inference at the voxel or ROI level that adjusts for multiple testing. We apply this model to Human Connectome Project data to reveal insights into brain activation patterns and background connectivity related to working memory tasks.

A prompt is a sequence of symbol or tokens, selected from a vocabulary according to some rule, which is prepended/concatenated to a textual query. A key problem is how to select the sequence of tokens: in this paper we formulate it as a combinatorial optimization problem. The high dimensionality of the token space com-pounded by the length of the prompt sequence requires a very efficient solution. In this paper we propose a Bayesian optimization method, executed in a continuous em-bedding of the combinatorial space. In this paper we focus on hard prompt tuning (HPT) which directly searches for discrete tokens to be added to the text input with-out requiring access to the large language model (LLM) and can be used also when LLM is available only as a black-box. This is critically important if LLMs are made available in the Model as a Service (MaaS) manner as in GPT-4. The current manu-script is focused on the optimization of discrete prompts for classification tasks. The discrete prompts give rise to difficult combinatorial optimization problem which easily become intractable given the dimension of the token space in realistic applications. The optimization method considered in this paper is Bayesian optimization (BO) which has become the dominant approach in black-box optimization for its sample efficiency along with its modular structure and versatility. In this paper we use BoTorch, a library for Bayesian optimization research built on top of pyTorch. Albeit preliminary and obtained using a 'vanilla' version of BO, the experiments on RoB-ERTa on six benchmarks, show a good performance across a variety of tasks and enable an analysis of the tradeoff between size of the search space, accuracy and wall clock time.

We present ParrotTTS, a modularized text-to-speech synthesis model leveraging disentangled self-supervised speech representations. It can train a multi-speaker variant effectively using transcripts from a single speaker. ParrotTTS adapts to a new language in low resource setup and generalizes to languages not seen while training the self-supervised backbone. Moreover, without training on bilingual or parallel examples, ParrotTTS can transfer voices across languages while preserving the speaker specific characteristics, e.g., synthesizing fluent Hindi speech using a French speaker's voice and accent. We present extensive results in monolingual and multi-lingual scenarios. ParrotTTS outperforms state-of-the-art multi-lingual TTS models using only a fraction of paired data as latter.

The trace plot is seldom used in meta-analysis, yet it is a very informative plot. In this article we define and illustrate what the trace plot is, and discuss why it is important. The Bayesian version of the plot combines the posterior density of tau, the between-study standard deviation, and the shrunken estimates of the study effects as a function of tau. With a small or moderate number of studies, tau is not estimated with much precision, and parameter estimates and shrunken study effect estimates can vary widely depending on the correct value of tau. The trace plot allows visualization of the sensitivity to tau along with a plot that shows which values of tau are plausible and which are implausible. A comparable frequentist or empirical Bayes version provides similar results. The concepts are illustrated using examples in meta-analysis and meta-regression; implementaton in R is facilitated in a Bayesian or frequentist framework using the bayesmeta and metafor packages, respectively.

Many approaches have been proposed to use diffusion models to augment training datasets for downstream tasks, such as classification. However, diffusion models are themselves trained on large datasets, often with noisy annotations, and it remains an open question to which extent these models contribute to downstream classification performance. In particular, it remains unclear if they generalize enough to improve over directly using the additional data of their pre-training process for augmentation. We systematically evaluate a range of existing methods to generate images from diffusion models and study new extensions to assess their benefit for data augmentation. Personalizing diffusion models towards the target data outperforms simpler prompting strategies. However, using the pre-training data of the diffusion model alone, via a simple nearest-neighbor retrieval procedure, leads to even stronger downstream performance. Our study explores the potential of diffusion models in generating new training data, and surprisingly finds that these sophisticated models are not yet able to beat a simple and strong image retrieval baseline on simple downstream vision tasks.

Inverse imaging problems that are ill-posed can be encountered across multiple domains of science and technology, ranging from medical diagnosis to astronomical studies. To reconstruct images from incomplete and distorted data, it is necessary to create algorithms that can take into account both, the physical mechanisms responsible for generating these measurements and the intrinsic characteristics of the images being analyzed. In this work, the sparse representation of images is reviewed, which is a realistic, compact and effective generative model for natural images inspired by the visual system of mammals. It enables us to address ill-posed linear inverse problems by training the model on a vast collection of images. Moreover, we extend the application of sparse coding to solve the non-linear and ill-posed problem in microwave tomography imaging, which could lead to a significant improvement of the state-of-the-arts algorithms.

We consider M-estimators and derive supremal-inequalities of exponential-or polynomial type according as a boundedness- or a moment-condition is fulfilled. This enables us to derive rates of r-complete convergence and also to show r-qick convergence in the sense of Strasser.

Prediction models are used amongst others to inform medical decisions on interventions. Typically, individuals with high risks of adverse outcomes are advised to undergo an intervention while those at low risk are advised to refrain from it. Standard prediction models do not always provide risks that are relevant to inform such decisions: e.g., an individual may be estimated to be at low risk because similar individuals in the past received an intervention which lowered their risk. Therefore, prediction models supporting decisions should target risks belonging to defined intervention strategies. Previous works on prediction under interventions assumed that the prediction model was used only at one time point to make an intervention decision. In clinical practice, intervention decisions are rarely made only once: they might be repeated, deferred and re-evaluated. This requires estimated risks under interventions that can be reconsidered at several potential decision moments. In the current work, we highlight key considerations for formulating estimands in sequential prediction under interventions that can inform such intervention decisions. We illustrate these considerations by giving examples of estimands for a case study about choosing between vaginal delivery and cesarean section for women giving birth. Our formalization of prediction tasks in a sequential, causal, and estimand context provides guidance for future studies to ensure that the right question is answered and appropriate causal estimation approaches are chosen to develop sequential prediction models that can inform intervention decisions.

Conjugate heat transfer (CHT) models are vital for the design of many engineering systems. However, high-fidelity CHT models are computationally intensive, which limits their use in applications such as design optimization, where hundreds to thousands of model evaluations are required. In this work, we develop a modular deep convolutional encoder-decoder hierarchical (DeepEDH) neural network, a novel deep-learning-based surrogate modeling methodology for computationally intensive CHT models. Leveraging convective temperature dependencies, we propose a two-stage temperature prediction architecture that couples velocity and temperature models. The proposed DeepEDH methodology is demonstrated by modeling the pressure, velocity, and temperature fields for a liquid-cooled cold-plate-based battery thermal management system with variable channel geometry. A computational model of the cold plate is developed and solved using the finite element method (FEM), generating a dataset of 1,500 simulations. The FEM results are transformed and scaled from unstructured to structured, image-like meshes to create training and test datasets. The DeepEDH methodology's performance is examined in relation to data scaling, training dataset size, and network depth. Our performance analysis covers the impact of the novel architecture, separate field models, output geometry masks, multi-stage temperature models, and optimizations of the hyperparameters and architecture. Furthermore, we quantify the influence of the CHT thermal boundary condition on surrogate model performance, highlighting improved temperature model performance with higher heat fluxes. Compared to other deep learning neural network surrogate models, such as U-Net and DenseED, the proposed DeepEDH methodology for CHT models exhibits up to a 65% enhancement in the coefficient of determination ($R^{2}$).

Recent advances in 3D fully convolutional networks (FCN) have made it feasible to produce dense voxel-wise predictions of volumetric images. In this work, we show that a multi-class 3D FCN trained on manually labeled CT scans of several anatomical structures (ranging from the large organs to thin vessels) can achieve competitive segmentation results, while avoiding the need for handcrafting features or training class-specific models. To this end, we propose a two-stage, coarse-to-fine approach that will first use a 3D FCN to roughly define a candidate region, which will then be used as input to a second 3D FCN. This reduces the number of voxels the second FCN has to classify to ~10% and allows it to focus on more detailed segmentation of the organs and vessels. We utilize training and validation sets consisting of 331 clinical CT images and test our models on a completely unseen data collection acquired at a different hospital that includes 150 CT scans, targeting three anatomical organs (liver, spleen, and pancreas). In challenging organs such as the pancreas, our cascaded approach improves the mean Dice score from 68.5 to 82.2%, achieving the highest reported average score on this dataset. We compare with a 2D FCN method on a separate dataset of 240 CT scans with 18 classes and achieve a significantly higher performance in small organs and vessels. Furthermore, we explore fine-tuning our models to different datasets. Our experiments illustrate the promise and robustness of current 3D FCN based semantic segmentation of medical images, achieving state-of-the-art results. Our code and trained models are available for download: //github.com/holgerroth/3Dunet_abdomen_cascade.