Effective evaluation methods remain a significant challenge for research on open-domain conversational dialogue systems. Explicit satisfaction ratings can be elicited from users, but users often do not provide ratings when asked, and those they give can be highly subjective. Post-hoc ratings by experts are an alternative, but these can be both expensive and complex to collect. Here, we explore the creation of automated methods for predicting both expert and user ratings of open-domain dialogues. We compare four different approaches. First, we train a baseline model using an end-to-end transformer to predict ratings directly from the raw dialogue text. The other three methods are variants of a two-stage approach in which we first extract interpretable features at the turn level that capture, among other aspects, user dialogue behaviors indicating contradiction, repetition, disinterest, compliments, or criticism. We project these features to the dialogue level and train a dialogue-level MLP regression model, a dialogue-level LSTM, and a novel causal inference model called counterfactual-LSTM (CF-LSTM) to predict ratings. The proposed CF-LSTM is a sequential model over turn-level features which predicts ratings using multiple regressors depending on hypotheses derived from the turn-level features. As a causal inference model, CF-LSTM aims to learn the underlying causes of a specific event, such as a low rating. We also bin the user ratings and perform classification experiments with all four models. In evaluation experiments on conversational data from the Alexa Prize SocialBot, we show that the CF-LSTM achieves the best performance for predicting dialogue ratings and classification.
Monte Carlo (MC) methods are the most widely used methods to estimate the performance of a policy. Given an interested policy, MC methods give estimates by repeatedly running this policy to collect samples and taking the average of the outcomes. Samples collected during this process are called online samples. To get an accurate estimate, MC methods consume massive online samples. When online samples are expensive, e.g., online recommendations and inventory management, we want to reduce the number of online samples while achieving the same estimate accuracy. To this end, we use off-policy MC methods that evaluate the interested policy by running a different policy called behavior policy. We design a tailored behavior policy such that the variance of the off-policy MC estimator is provably smaller than the ordinary MC estimator. Importantly, this tailored behavior policy can be efficiently learned from existing offline data, i,e., previously logged data, which are much cheaper than online samples. With reduced variance, our off-policy MC method requires fewer online samples to evaluate the performance of a policy compared with the ordinary MC method. Moreover, our off-policy MC estimator is always unbiased.
Domain generalization (DG) tends to alleviate the poor generalization capability of deep neural networks by learning model with multiple source domains. A classical solution to DG is domain augmentation, the common belief of which is that diversifying source domains will be conducive to the out-of-distribution generalization. However, these claims are understood intuitively, rather than mathematically. Our explorations empirically reveal that the correlation between model generalization and the diversity of domains may be not strictly positive, which limits the effectiveness of domain augmentation. This work therefore aim to guarantee and further enhance the validity of this strand. To this end, we propose a new perspective on DG that recasts it as a convex game between domains. We first encourage each diversified domain to enhance model generalization by elaborately designing a regularization term based on supermodularity. Meanwhile, a sample filter is constructed to eliminate low-quality samples, thereby avoiding the impact of potentially harmful information. Our framework presents a new avenue for the formal analysis of DG, heuristic analysis and extensive experiments demonstrate the rationality and effectiveness.
We present new benchmarks on evaluation code generation models: MBXP and Multilingual HumanEval, and MathQA-X. These datasets cover over 10 programming languages and are generated using a scalable conversion framework that transpiles prompts and test cases from the original Python datasets into the corresponding data in the target language. Using these benchmarks, we are able to assess the performance of code generation models in a multi-lingual fashion, and discovered generalization ability of language models on out-of-domain languages, advantages of multi-lingual models over mono-lingual, the ability of few-shot prompting to teach the model new languages, and zero-shot translation abilities even on mono-lingual settings. Furthermore, we use our code generation model to perform large-scale bootstrapping to obtain synthetic canonical solutions in several languages, which can be used for other code-related evaluations such as code insertion, robustness, or summarization tasks. Overall, our benchmarks represents a significant step towards a deeper understanding of language models' code generation abilities. We publicly release our code and datasets at //github.com/amazon-research/mxeval.
Recently, causal inference has attracted increasing attention from researchers of recommender systems (RS), which analyzes the relationship between a cause and its effect and has a wide range of real-world applications in multiple fields. Causal inference can model the causality in recommender systems like confounding effects and deal with counterfactual problems such as offline policy evaluation and data augmentation. Although there are already some valuable surveys on causal recommendations, these surveys introduce approaches in a relatively isolated way and lack theoretical analysis of existing methods. Due to the unfamiliarity with causality to RS researchers, it is both necessary and challenging to comprehensively review the relevant studies from the perspective of causal theory, which might be instructive for the readers to propose new approaches in practice. This survey attempts to provide a systematic review of up-to-date papers in this area from a theoretical standpoint. Firstly, we introduce the fundamental concepts of causal inference as the basis of the following review. Then we propose a new taxonomy from the perspective of causal techniques and further discuss technical details about how existing methods apply causal inference to address specific recommender issues. Finally, we highlight some promising directions for future research in this field.
The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.
Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natural languages to adopt CCR to the potential-outcomes framework, which is the first such attempt for commonsense tasks. We propose a novel framework, ROCK, to Reason O(A)bout Commonsense K(C)ausality, which utilizes temporal signals as incidental supervision, and balances confounding effects using temporal propensities that are analogous to propensity scores. The ROCK implementation is modular and zero-shot, and demonstrates good CCR capabilities on various datasets.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.
Neural network models usually suffer from the challenge of incorporating commonsense knowledge into the open-domain dialogue systems. In this paper, we propose a novel knowledge-aware dialogue generation model (called TransDG), which transfers question representation and knowledge matching abilities from knowledge base question answering (KBQA) task to facilitate the utterance understanding and factual knowledge selection for dialogue generation. In addition, we propose a response guiding attention and a multi-step decoding strategy to steer our model to focus on relevant features for response generation. Experiments on two benchmark datasets demonstrate that our model has robust superiority over compared methods in generating informative and fluent dialogues. Our code is available at //github.com/siat-nlp/TransDG.
User engagement is a critical metric for evaluating the quality of open-domain dialogue systems. Prior work has focused on conversation-level engagement by using heuristically constructed features such as the number of turns and the total time of the conversation. In this paper, we investigate the possibility and efficacy of estimating utterance-level engagement and define a novel metric, {\em predictive engagement}, for automatic evaluation of open-domain dialogue systems. Our experiments demonstrate that (1) human annotators have high agreement on assessing utterance-level engagement scores; (2) conversation-level engagement scores can be predicted from properly aggregated utterance-level engagement scores. Furthermore, we show that the utterance-level engagement scores can be learned from data. These scores can improve automatic evaluation metrics for open-domain dialogue systems, as shown by correlation with human judgements. This suggests that predictive engagement can be used as a real-time feedback for training better dialogue models.