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Online learning naturally arises in many statistical and machine learning problems. The most widely used methods in online learning are stochastic first-order algorithms. Among this family of algorithms, there is a recently developed algorithm, Recursive One-Over-T SGD (ROOT-SGD). ROOT-SGD is advantageous in that it converges at a non-asymptotically fast rate, and its estimator further converges to a normal distribution. However, this normal distribution has unknown asymptotic covariance; thus cannot be directly applied to measure the uncertainty. To fill this gap, we develop two estimators for the asymptotic covariance of ROOT-SGD. Our covariance estimators are useful for statistical inference in ROOT-SGD. Our first estimator adopts the idea of plug-in. For each unknown component in the formula of the asymptotic covariance, we substitute it with its empirical counterpart. The plug-in estimator converges at the rate $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{t})$, where $t$ is the sample size. Despite its quick convergence, the plug-in estimator has the limitation that it relies on the Hessian of the loss function, which might be unavailable in some cases. Our second estimator is a Hessian-free estimator that overcomes the aforementioned limitation. The Hessian-free estimator uses the random-scaling technique, and we show that it is an asymptotically consistent estimator of the true covariance.

We introduce an ensemble learning method based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for predicting conditional expected stock returns given stock-level and macro-economic information. Our ensemble learning approach significantly reduces the computational complexity inherent in GPR inference and lends itself to general online learning tasks. We conduct an empirical analysis on a large cross-section of US stocks from 1962 to 2016. We find that our method dominates existing machine learning models statistically and economically in terms of out-of-sample $R$-squared and Sharpe ratio of prediction-sorted portfolios. Exploiting the Bayesian nature of GPR, we introduce the mean-variance optimal portfolio with respect to the predictive uncertainty distribution of the expected stock returns. It appeals to an uncertainty averse investor and significantly dominates the equal- and value-weighted prediction-sorted portfolios, which outperform the S&P 500.

Label Shift has been widely believed to be harmful to the generalization performance of machine learning models. Researchers have proposed many approaches to mitigate the impact of the label shift, e.g., balancing the training data. However, these methods often consider the underparametrized regime, where the sample size is much larger than the data dimension. The research under the overparametrized regime is very limited. To bridge this gap, we propose a new asymptotic analysis of the Fisher Linear Discriminant classifier for binary classification with label shift. Specifically, we prove that there exists a phase transition phenomenon: Under certain overparametrized regime, the classifier trained using imbalanced data outperforms the counterpart with reduced balanced data. Moreover, we investigate the impact of regularization to the label shift: The aforementioned phase transition vanishes as the regularization becomes strong.

Recent successes of massively overparameterized models have inspired a new line of work investigating the underlying conditions that enable overparameterized models to generalize well. This paper considers a framework where the possibly overparametrized model includes fake features, i.e., features that are present in the model but not in the data. We present a non-asymptotic high-probability bound on the generalization error of the ridge regression problem under the model misspecification of having fake features. Our high-probability results characterize the interplay between the implicit regularization provided by the fake features and the explicit regularization provided by the ridge parameter. We observe that fake features may improve the generalization error, even though they are irrelevant to the data.

This paper studies the high-dimensional quantile regression problem under the transfer learning framework, where possibly related source datasets are available to make improvements on the estimation or prediction based solely on the target data. In the oracle case with known transferable sources, a smoothed two-step transfer learning algorithm based on convolution smoothing is proposed and the L1/L2 estimation error bounds of the corresponding estimator are also established. To avoid including non-informative sources, we propose a clustering-based algorithm to select the transferable sources adaptively and establish its selection consistency under regular conditions; we also provide an alternative model averaging procedure, of which the optimality of the excess risk is proved. Monte Carlo simulations as well as an empirical analysis of gene expression data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure.

Textual entailment recognition is one of the basic natural language understanding(NLU) tasks. Understanding the meaning of sentences is a prerequisite before applying any natural language processing(NLP) techniques to automatically recognize the textual entailment. A text entails a hypothesis if and only if the true value of the hypothesis follows the text. Classical approaches generally utilize the feature value of each word from word embedding to represent the sentences. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to identifying the textual entailment relationship between text and hypothesis, thereby introducing a new semantic feature focusing on empirical threshold-based semantic text representation. We employ an element-wise Manhattan distance vector-based feature that can identify the semantic entailment relationship between the text-hypothesis pair. We carried out several experiments on a benchmark entailment classification(SICK-RTE) dataset. We train several machine learning(ML) algorithms applying both semantic and lexical features to classify the text-hypothesis pair as entailment, neutral, or contradiction. Our empirical sentence representation technique enriches the semantic information of the texts and hypotheses found to be more efficient than the classical ones. In the end, our approach significantly outperforms known methods in understanding the meaning of the sentences for the textual entailment classification task.

Many scientific problems require identifying a small set of covariates that are associated with a target response and estimating their effects. Often, these effects are nonlinear and include interactions, so linear and additive methods can lead to poor estimation and variable selection. Unfortunately, methods that simultaneously express sparsity, nonlinearity, and interactions are computationally intractable -- with runtime at least quadratic in the number of covariates, and often worse. In the present work, we solve this computational bottleneck. We show that suitable interaction models have a kernel representation, namely there exists a "kernel trick" to perform variable selection and estimation in $O$(# covariates) time. Our resulting fit corresponds to a sparse orthogonal decomposition of the regression function in a Hilbert space (i.e., a functional ANOVA decomposition), where interaction effects represent all variation that cannot be explained by lower-order effects. On a variety of synthetic and real data sets, our approach outperforms existing methods used for large, high-dimensional data sets while remaining competitive (or being orders of magnitude faster) in runtime.

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) enables statistical inference in simulator-based models whose likelihoods are difficult to calculate but easy to simulate from. ABC constructs a kernel-type approximation to the posterior distribution through an accept/reject mechanism which compares summary statistics of real and simulated data. To obviate the need for summary statistics, we directly compare empirical distributions with a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence estimator obtained via contrastive learning. In particular, we blend flexible machine learning classifiers within ABC to automate fake/real data comparisons. We consider the traditional accept/reject kernel as well as an exponential weighting scheme which does not require the ABC acceptance threshold. Our theoretical results show that the rate at which our ABC posterior distributions concentrate around the true parameter depends on the estimation error of the classifier. We derive limiting posterior shape results and find that, with a properly scaled exponential kernel, asymptotic normality holds. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach on simulated examples as well as real data in the context of stock volatility estimation.

The order/dimension of models derived on the basis of data is commonly restricted by the number of observations, or in the context of monitored systems, sensing nodes. This is particularly true for structural systems (e.g., civil or mechanical structures), which are typically high-dimensional in nature. In the scope of physics-informed machine learning, this paper proposes a framework -- termed Neural Modal ODEs -- to integrate physics-based modeling with deep learning for modeling the dynamics of monitored and high-dimensional engineered systems. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations -- Neural ODEs are exploited as the deep learning operator. In this initiating exploration, we restrict ourselves to linear or mildly nonlinear systems. We propose an architecture that couples a dynamic version of variational autoencoders with physics-informed Neural ODEs (Pi-Neural ODEs). An encoder, as a part of the autoencoder, learns the abstract mappings from the first few items of observational data to the initial values of the latent variables, which drive the learning of embedded dynamics via physics-informed Neural ODEs, imposing a modal model structure on that latent space. The decoder of the proposed model adopts the eigenmodes derived from an eigen-analysis applied to the linearized portion of a physics-based model: a process implicitly carrying the spatial relationship between degrees-of-freedom (DOFs). The framework is validated on a numerical example, and an experimental dataset of a scaled cable-stayed bridge, where the learned hybrid model is shown to outperform a purely physics-based approach to modeling. We further show the functionality of the proposed scheme within the context of virtual sensing, i.e., the recovery of generalized response quantities in unmeasured DOFs from spatially sparse data.

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In our leading example, we model CATE by interacting the base treatment variable with explanatory variables. The first step of our procedure is orthogonalization, where we partial out the controls and unit effects from the outcome and the base treatment and take the cross-fitted residuals. This step uses a novel generic cross-fitting method we design for weakly dependent time series and panel data. This method "leaves out the neighbors" when fitting nuisance components, and we theoretically power it by using Strassen's coupling. As a result, we can rely on any modern machine learning method in the first step, provided it learns the residuals well enough. Second, we construct an orthogonal (or residual) learner of CATE -- the Lasso CATE -- that regresses the outcome residual on the vector of interactions of the residualized treatment with explanatory variables. If the complexity of CATE function is simpler than that of the first-stage regression, the orthogonal learner converges faster than the single-stage regression-based learner. Third, we perform simultaneous inference on parameters of the CATE function using debiasing. We also can use ordinary least squares in the last two steps when CATE is low-dimensional. In heterogeneous panel data settings, we model the unobserved unit heterogeneity as a weakly sparse deviation from Mundlak (1978)'s model of correlated unit effects as a linear function of time-invariant covariates and make use of L1-penalization to estimate these models. We demonstrate our methods by estimating price elasticities of groceries based on scanner data. We note that our results are new even for the cross-sectional (i.i.d) case.