In this study, we examine a clustering problem in which the covariates of each individual element in a dataset are associated with an uncertainty specific to that element. More specifically, we consider a clustering approach in which a pre-processing applying a non-linear transformation to the covariates is used to capture the hidden data structure. To this end, we approximate the sets representing the propagated uncertainty for the pre-processed features empirically. To exploit the empirical uncertainty sets, we propose a greedy and optimistic clustering (GOC) algorithm that finds better feature candidates over such sets, yielding more condensed clusters. As an important application, we apply the GOC algorithm to synthetic datasets of the orbital properties of stars generated through our numerical simulation mimicking the formation process of the Milky Way. The GOC algorithm demonstrates an improved performance in finding sibling stars originating from the same dwarf galaxy. These realistic datasets have also been made publicly available.
相關內容
In experiments that study social phenomena, such as peer influence or herd immunity, the treatment of one unit may influence the outcomes of others. Such "interference between units" violates traditional approaches for causal inference, so that additional assumptions are often imposed to model or limit the underlying social mechanism. For binary outcomes, we propose an approach that does not require such assumptions, allowing for interference that is both unmodeled and strong, with confidence intervals derived using only the randomization of treatment. However, the estimates will have wider confidence intervals and weaker causal implications than those attainable under stronger assumptions. The approach allows for the usage of regression, matching, or weighting, as may best fit the application at hand. Inference is done by bounding the distribution of the estimation error over all possible values of the unknown counterfactual, using an integer program. Examples are shown using using a vaccination trial and two experiments investigating social influence.
Graph convolutional networks (GCNs) can successfully learn the graph signal representation by graph convolution. The graph convolution depends on the graph filter, which contains the topological dependency of data and propagates data features. However, the estimation errors in the propagation matrix (e.g., the adjacency matrix) can have a significant impact on graph filters and GCNs. In this paper, we study the effect of a probabilistic graph error model on the performance of the GCNs. We prove that the adjacency matrix under the error model is bounded by a function of graph size and error probability. We further analytically specify the upper bound of a normalized adjacency matrix with self-loop added. Finally, we illustrate the error bounds by running experiments on a synthetic dataset and study the sensitivity of a simple GCN under this probabilistic error model on accuracy.
Analyzing time series in the frequency domain enables the development of powerful tools for investigating the second-order characteristics of multivariate stochastic processes. Parameters like the spectral density matrix and its inverse, the coherence or the partial coherence, encode comprehensively the complex linear relations between the component processes of the multivariate system. In this paper, we develop inference procedures for such parameters in a high-dimensional, time series setup. In particular, we first focus on the derivation of consistent estimators of the coherence and, more importantly, of the partial coherence which possess manageable limiting distributions that are suitable for testing purposes. Statistical tests of the hypothesis that the maximum over frequencies of the coherence, respectively, of the partial coherence, do not exceed a prespecified threshold value are developed. Our approach allows for testing hypotheses for individual coherences and/or partial coherences as well as for multiple testing of large sets of such parameters. In the latter case, a consistent procedure to control the false discovery rate is developed. The finite sample performance of the inference procedures proposed is investigated by means of simulations and applications to the construction of graphical interaction models for brain connectivity based on EEG data are presented.
Estimating the effects of continuous-valued interventions from observational data is a critically important task for climate science, healthcare, and economics. Recent work focuses on designing neural network architectures and regularization functions to allow for scalable estimation of average and individual-level dose-response curves from high-dimensional, large-sample data. Such methodologies assume ignorability (observation of all confounding variables) and positivity (observation of all treatment levels for every covariate value describing a set of units), assumptions problematic in the continuous treatment regime. Scalable sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to understand the ignorance induced in causal estimates when these assumptions are relaxed are less studied. Here, we develop a continuous treatment-effect marginal sensitivity model (CMSM) and derive bounds that agree with the observed data and a researcher-defined level of hidden confounding. We introduce a scalable algorithm and uncertainty-aware deep models to derive and estimate these bounds for high-dimensional, large-sample observational data. We work in concert with climate scientists interested in the climatological impacts of human emissions on cloud properties using satellite observations from the past 15 years. This problem is known to be complicated by many unobserved confounders.
Several deep neural networks have recently been shown to generate activations similar to those of the brain in response to the same input. These algorithms, however, remain largely implausible: they require (1) extraordinarily large amounts of data, (2) unobtainable supervised labels, (3) textual rather than raw sensory input, and / or (4) implausibly large memory (e.g. thousands of contextual words). These elements highlight the need to identify algorithms that, under these limitations, would suffice to account for both behavioral and brain responses. Focusing on the issue of speech processing, we here hypothesize that self-supervised algorithms trained on the raw waveform constitute a promising candidate. Specifically, we compare a recent self-supervised architecture, Wav2Vec 2.0, to the brain activity of 412 English, French, and Mandarin individuals recorded with functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI), while they listened to ~1h of audio books. Our results are four-fold. First, we show that this algorithm learns brain-like representations with as little as 600 hours of unlabelled speech -- a quantity comparable to what infants can be exposed to during language acquisition. Second, its functional hierarchy aligns with the cortical hierarchy of speech processing. Third, different training regimes reveal a functional specialization akin to the cortex: Wav2Vec 2.0 learns sound-generic, speech-specific and language-specific representations similar to those of the prefrontal and temporal cortices. Fourth, we confirm the similarity of this specialization with the behavior of 386 additional participants. These elements, resulting from the largest neuroimaging benchmark to date, show how self-supervised learning can account for a rich organization of speech processing in the brain, and thus delineate a path to identify the laws of language acquisition which shape the human brain.
Markov decision processes (MDP) and continuous-time MDP (CTMDP) are the fundamental models for non-deterministic systems with probabilistic uncertainty. Mean payoff (a.k.a. long-run average reward) is one of the most classic objectives considered in their context. We provide the first algorithm to compute mean payoff probably approximately correctly in unknown MDP; further, we extend it to unknown CTMDP. We do not require any knowledge of the state space, only a lower bound on the minimum transition probability, which has been advocated in literature. In addition to providing probably approximately correct (PAC) bounds for our algorithm, we also demonstrate its practical nature by running experiments on standard benchmarks.
We analyze the epistemic uncertainty (EU) of supervised learning in Bayesian inference by focusing on the excess risk. Existing analysis is limited to the Bayesian setting, which assumes a correct model and exact Bayesian posterior distribution. Thus we cannot apply the existing theory to modern Bayesian algorithms, such as variational inference. To address this, we present a novel EU analysis in the frequentist setting, where data is generated from an unknown distribution. We show a relation between the generalization ability and the widely used EU measurements, such as the variance and entropy of the predictive distribution. Then we show their convergence behaviors theoretically. Finally, we propose new variational inference that directly controls the prediction and EU evaluation performances based on the PAC-Bayesian theory. Numerical experiments show that our algorithm significantly improves the EU evaluation over the existing methods.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications and related issues such as safety requirements, new problems and challenges have recently been identified by machine learning scholars, and these problems may call for new methodological developments. In particular, this includes the importance of distinguishing between (at least) two different types of uncertainty, often refereed to as aleatoric and epistemic. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the topic of uncertainty in machine learning as well as an overview of hitherto attempts at handling uncertainty in general and formalizing this distinction in particular.
Clustering is one of the most fundamental and wide-spread techniques in exploratory data analysis. Yet, the basic approach to clustering has not really changed: a practitioner hand-picks a task-specific clustering loss to optimize and fit the given data to reveal the underlying cluster structure. Some types of losses---such as k-means, or its non-linear version: kernelized k-means (centroid based), and DBSCAN (density based)---are popular choices due to their good empirical performance on a range of applications. Although every so often the clustering output using these standard losses fails to reveal the underlying structure, and the practitioner has to custom-design their own variation. In this work we take an intrinsically different approach to clustering: rather than fitting a dataset to a specific clustering loss, we train a recurrent model that learns how to cluster. The model uses as training pairs examples of datasets (as input) and its corresponding cluster identities (as output). By providing multiple types of training datasets as inputs, our model has the ability to generalize well on unseen datasets (new clustering tasks). Our experiments reveal that by training on simple synthetically generated datasets or on existing real datasets, we can achieve better clustering performance on unseen real-world datasets when compared with standard benchmark clustering techniques. Our meta clustering model works well even for small datasets where the usual deep learning models tend to perform worse.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191