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Combination and aggregation techniques can significantly improve forecast accuracy. This also holds for probabilistic forecasting methods where predictive distributions are combined. There are several time-varying and adaptive weighting schemes such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA). However, the quality of different forecasts may vary not only over time but also within the distribution. For example, some distribution forecasts may be more accurate in the center of the distributions, while others are better at predicting the tails. Therefore, we introduce a new weighting method that considers the differences in performance over time and within the distribution. We discuss pointwise combination algorithms based on aggregation across quantiles that optimize with respect to the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). After analyzing the theoretical properties of pointwise CRPS learning, we discuss B- and P-Spline-based estimation techniques for batch and online learning, based on quantile regression and prediction with expert advice. We prove that the proposed fully adaptive Bernstein online aggregation (BOA) method for pointwise CRPS online learning has optimal convergence properties. They are confirmed in simulations and a probabilistic forecasting study for European emission allowance (EUA) prices.

We apply the meta reinforcement learning framework to optimize an integrated and adaptive guidance and flight control system for an air-to-air missile, implementing the system as a deep recurrent neural network (the policy). The policy maps observations directly to commanded rates of change for the missile's control surface deflections, with the observations derived with minimal processing from the computationally stabilized line of sight unit vector measured by a strap down radar seeker, estimated rotational velocity from rate gyros, and control surface deflection angles. The system induces intercept trajectories against a maneuvering target that satisfy control constraints on fin deflection angles, and path constraints on look angle and load. We test the optimized system in a six degrees-of-freedom simulator that includes a non-linear radome model and a strapdown seeker model. Through extensive simulation, we demonstrate that the system can adapt to a large flight envelope and off nominal flight conditions that include perturbation of aerodynamic coefficient parameters and center of pressure locations. Moreover, we find that the system is robust to the parasitic attitude loop induced by radome refraction, imperfect seeker stabilization, and sensor scale factor errors. Importantly, we compare our system's performance to a longitudinal model of proportional navigation coupled with a three loop autopilot, and find that our system outperforms the benchmark by a large margin. Additional experiments investigate the impact of removing the recurrent layer from the policy and value function networks, and performance with an infrared seeker.

Recently, deep multiagent reinforcement learning (MARL) has become a highly active research area as many real-world problems can be inherently viewed as multiagent systems. A particularly interesting and widely applicable class of problems is the partially observable cooperative multiagent setting, in which a team of agents learns to coordinate their behaviors conditioning on their private observations and commonly shared global reward signals. One natural solution is to resort to the centralized training and decentralized execution paradigm. During centralized training, one key challenge is the multiagent credit assignment: how to allocate the global rewards for individual agent policies for better coordination towards maximizing system-level's benefits. In this paper, we propose a new method called Q-value Path Decomposition (QPD) to decompose the system's global Q-values into individual agents' Q-values. Unlike previous works which restrict the representation relation of the individual Q-values and the global one, we leverage the integrated gradient attribution technique into deep MARL to directly decompose global Q-values along trajectory paths to assign credits for agents. We evaluate QPD on the challenging StarCraft II micromanagement tasks and show that QPD achieves the state-of-the-art performance in both homogeneous and heterogeneous multiagent scenarios compared with existing cooperative MARL algorithms.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved many recent successes, yet experiment turn-around time remains a key bottleneck in research and in practice. We investigate how to optimize existing deep RL algorithms for modern computers, specifically for a combination of CPUs and GPUs. We confirm that both policy gradient and Q-value learning algorithms can be adapted to learn using many parallel simulator instances. We further find it possible to train using batch sizes considerably larger than are standard, without negatively affecting sample complexity or final performance. We leverage these facts to build a unified framework for parallelization that dramatically hastens experiments in both classes of algorithm. All neural network computations use GPUs, accelerating both data collection and training. Our results include using an entire DGX-1 to learn successful strategies in Atari games in mere minutes, using both synchronous and asynchronous algorithms.

Deep reinforcement learning is the combination of reinforcement learning (RL) and deep learning. This field of research has been able to solve a wide range of complex decision-making tasks that were previously out of reach for a machine. Thus, deep RL opens up many new applications in domains such as healthcare, robotics, smart grids, finance, and many more. This manuscript provides an introduction to deep reinforcement learning models, algorithms and techniques. Particular focus is on the aspects related to generalization and how deep RL can be used for practical applications. We assume the reader is familiar with basic machine learning concepts.

Matter evolved under influence of gravity from minuscule density fluctuations. Non-perturbative structure formed hierarchically over all scales, and developed non-Gaussian features in the Universe, known as the Cosmic Web. To fully understand the structure formation of the Universe is one of the holy grails of modern astrophysics. Astrophysicists survey large volumes of the Universe and employ a large ensemble of computer simulations to compare with the observed data in order to extract the full information of our own Universe. However, to evolve trillions of galaxies over billions of years even with the simplest physics is a daunting task. We build a deep neural network, the Deep Density Displacement Model (hereafter D$^3$M), to predict the non-linear structure formation of the Universe from simple linear perturbation theory. Our extensive analysis, demonstrates that D$^3$M outperforms the second order perturbation theory (hereafter 2LPT), the commonly used fast approximate simulation method, in point-wise comparison, 2-point correlation, and 3-point correlation. We also show that D$^3$M is able to accurately extrapolate far beyond its training data, and predict structure formation for significantly different cosmological parameters. Our study proves, for the first time, that deep learning is a practical and accurate alternative to approximate simulations of the gravitational structure formation of the Universe.

We propose accelerated randomized coordinate descent algorithms for stochastic optimization and online learning. Our algorithms have significantly less per-iteration complexity than the known accelerated gradient algorithms. The proposed algorithms for online learning have better regret performance than the known randomized online coordinate descent algorithms. Furthermore, the proposed algorithms for stochastic optimization exhibit as good convergence rates as the best known randomized coordinate descent algorithms. We also show simulation results to demonstrate performance of the proposed algorithms.

We introduce an approach for deep reinforcement learning (RL) that improves upon the efficiency, generalization capacity, and interpretability of conventional approaches through structured perception and relational reasoning. It uses self-attention to iteratively reason about the relations between entities in a scene and to guide a model-free policy. Our results show that in a novel navigation and planning task called Box-World, our agent finds interpretable solutions that improve upon baselines in terms of sample complexity, ability to generalize to more complex scenes than experienced during training, and overall performance. In the StarCraft II Learning Environment, our agent achieves state-of-the-art performance on six mini-games -- surpassing human grandmaster performance on four. By considering architectural inductive biases, our work opens new directions for overcoming important, but stubborn, challenges in deep RL.

Deep hierarchical reinforcement learning has gained a lot of attention in recent years due to its ability to produce state-of-the-art results in challenging environments where non-hierarchical frameworks fail to learn useful policies. However, as problem domains become more complex, deep hierarchical reinforcement learning can become inefficient, leading to longer convergence times and poor performance. We introduce the Deep Nested Agent framework, which is a variant of deep hierarchical reinforcement learning where information from the main agent is propagated to the low level $nested$ agent by incorporating this information into the nested agent's state. We demonstrate the effectiveness and performance of the Deep Nested Agent framework by applying it to three scenarios in Minecraft with comparisons to a deep non-hierarchical single agent framework, as well as, a deep hierarchical framework.

Policy gradient methods are widely used in reinforcement learning algorithms to search for better policies in the parameterized policy space. They do gradient search in the policy space and are known to converge very slowly. Nesterov developed an accelerated gradient search algorithm for convex optimization problems. This has been recently extended for non-convex and also stochastic optimization. We use Nesterov's acceleration for policy gradient search in the well-known actor-critic algorithm and show the convergence using ODE method. We tested this algorithm on a scheduling problem. Here an incoming job is scheduled into one of the four queues based on the queue lengths. We see from experimental results that algorithm using Nesterov's acceleration has significantly better performance compared to algorithm which do not use acceleration. To the best of our knowledge this is the first time Nesterov's acceleration has been used with actor-critic algorithm.