We study the problem of uncertainty quantification for time series prediction, with the goal of providing easy-to-use algorithms with formal guarantees. The algorithms we present build upon ideas from conformal prediction and control theory, are able to prospectively model conformal scores in an online setting, and adapt to the presence of systematic errors due to seasonality, trends, and general distribution shifts. Our theory both simplifies and strengthens existing analyses in online conformal prediction. Experiments on 4-week-ahead forecasting of statewide COVID-19 death counts in the U.S. show an improvement in coverage over the ensemble forecaster used in official CDC communications. We also run experiments on predicting electricity demand, market returns, and temperature using autoregressive, Theta, Prophet, and Transformer models. We provide an extendable codebase for testing our methods and for the integration of new algorithms, data sets, and forecasting rules.
We study batched bandit experiments and consider the problem of inference conditional on the realized stopping time, assignment probabilities, and target parameter, where all of these may be chosen adaptively using information up to the last batch of the experiment. Absent further restrictions on the experiment, we show that inference using only the results of the last batch is optimal. When the adaptive aspects of the experiment are known to be location-invariant, in the sense that they are unchanged when we shift all batch-arm means by a constant, we show that there is additional information in the data, captured by one additional linear function of the batch-arm means. In the more restrictive case where the stopping time, assignment probabilities, and target parameter are known to depend on the data only through a collection of polyhedral events, we derive computationally tractable and optimal conditional inference procedures.
This paper explicitly models a coarse and noisy quantization in a communication system empowered by orthogonal time frequency space (OTFS) for cost and power efficiency. We first point out, with coarse quantization, the effective channel is imbalanced and thus no longer able to circularly shift the transmitted symbols along the delay-Doppler domain. Meanwhile, the effective channel is non-isotropic, which imposes a significant loss to symbol detection algorithms like the original approximate message passing (AMP). Although the algorithm of generalized expectation consistent for signal recovery (GEC-SR) can mitigate this loss, the complexity in computation is prohibitively high, mainly due to an dramatic increase in the matrix size of OTFS. In this context, we propose a low-complexity algorithm that incorporates into the GEC-SR a quick inversion of quasi-banded matrices, reducing the complexity from a cubic order to a linear order while keeping the performance at the same level.
Numerically solving partial differential equations typically requires fine discretization to resolve necessary spatiotemporal scales, which can be computationally expensive. Recent advances in deep learning have provided a new approach to solving partial differential equations that involves the use of neural operators. Neural operators are neural network architectures that learn mappings between function spaces and have the capability to solve partial differential equations based on data. This study utilizes a novel neural operator called Hyena, which employs a long convolutional filter that is parameterized by a multilayer perceptron. The Hyena operator is an operation that enjoys sub-quadratic complexity and state space model to parameterize long convolution that enjoys a global receptive field. This mechanism enhances the model's comprehension of the input's context and enables data-dependent weight for different partial differential equations instances. To measure how effective the layers are in solving partial differential equations, we conduct experiments on Diffusion-Reaction equation and Navier Stokes equation. Our findings indicate Hyena Neural operator can serve as an efficient and accurate model for learning partial differential equations solution operator. The data and code used can be found at: //github.com/Saupatil07/Hyena-Neural-Operator
The introduction of the generative adversarial imitation learning (GAIL) algorithm has spurred the development of scalable imitation learning approaches using deep neural networks. Many of the algorithms that followed used a similar procedure, combining on-policy actor-critic algorithms with inverse reinforcement learning. More recently there have been an even larger breadth of approaches, most of which use off-policy algorithms. However, with the breadth of algorithms, everything from datasets to base reinforcement learning algorithms to evaluation settings can vary, making it difficult to fairly compare them. In this work we re-implement 6 different IL algorithms, updating 3 of them to be off-policy, base them on a common off-policy algorithm (SAC), and evaluate them on a widely-used expert trajectory dataset (D4RL) for the most common benchmark (MuJoCo). After giving all algorithms the same hyperparameter optimisation budget, we compare their results for a range of expert trajectories. In summary, GAIL, with all of its improvements, consistently performs well across a range of sample sizes, AdRIL is a simple contender that performs well with one important hyperparameter to tune, and behavioural cloning remains a strong baseline when data is more plentiful.
We present a novel framework for learning system design based on neural feature extractors by exploiting geometric structures in feature spaces. First, we introduce the feature geometry, which unifies statistical dependence and features in the same functional space with geometric structures. By applying the feature geometry, we formulate each learning problem as solving the optimal feature approximation of the dependence component specified by the learning setting. We propose a nesting technique for designing learning algorithms to learn the optimal features from data samples, which can be applied to off-the-shelf network architectures and optimizers. To demonstrate the application of the nesting technique, we further discuss multivariate learning problems, including conditioned inference and multimodal learning, where we present the optimal features and reveal their connections to classical approaches.
Humans perceive the world by concurrently processing and fusing high-dimensional inputs from multiple modalities such as vision and audio. Machine perception models, in stark contrast, are typically modality-specific and optimised for unimodal benchmarks, and hence late-stage fusion of final representations or predictions from each modality (`late-fusion') is still a dominant paradigm for multimodal video classification. Instead, we introduce a novel transformer based architecture that uses `fusion bottlenecks' for modality fusion at multiple layers. Compared to traditional pairwise self-attention, our model forces information between different modalities to pass through a small number of bottleneck latents, requiring the model to collate and condense the most relevant information in each modality and only share what is necessary. We find that such a strategy improves fusion performance, at the same time reducing computational cost. We conduct thorough ablation studies, and achieve state-of-the-art results on multiple audio-visual classification benchmarks including Audioset, Epic-Kitchens and VGGSound. All code and models will be released.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
Embedding entities and relations into a continuous multi-dimensional vector space have become the dominant method for knowledge graph embedding in representation learning. However, most existing models ignore to represent hierarchical knowledge, such as the similarities and dissimilarities of entities in one domain. We proposed to learn a Domain Representations over existing knowledge graph embedding models, such that entities that have similar attributes are organized into the same domain. Such hierarchical knowledge of domains can give further evidence in link prediction. Experimental results show that domain embeddings give a significant improvement over the most recent state-of-art baseline knowledge graph embedding models.
Benefit from the quick development of deep learning techniques, salient object detection has achieved remarkable progresses recently. However, there still exists following two major challenges that hinder its application in embedded devices, low resolution output and heavy model weight. To this end, this paper presents an accurate yet compact deep network for efficient salient object detection. More specifically, given a coarse saliency prediction in the deepest layer, we first employ residual learning to learn side-output residual features for saliency refinement, which can be achieved with very limited convolutional parameters while keep accuracy. Secondly, we further propose reverse attention to guide such side-output residual learning in a top-down manner. By erasing the current predicted salient regions from side-output features, the network can eventually explore the missing object parts and details which results in high resolution and accuracy. Experiments on six benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed approach compares favorably against state-of-the-art methods, and with advantages in terms of simplicity, efficiency (45 FPS) and model size (81 MB).
We advocate the use of implicit fields for learning generative models of shapes and introduce an implicit field decoder for shape generation, aimed at improving the visual quality of the generated shapes. An implicit field assigns a value to each point in 3D space, so that a shape can be extracted as an iso-surface. Our implicit field decoder is trained to perform this assignment by means of a binary classifier. Specifically, it takes a point coordinate, along with a feature vector encoding a shape, and outputs a value which indicates whether the point is outside the shape or not. By replacing conventional decoders by our decoder for representation learning and generative modeling of shapes, we demonstrate superior results for tasks such as shape autoencoding, generation, interpolation, and single-view 3D reconstruction, particularly in terms of visual quality.