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Existing ML-based atmospheric models are not suitable for climate prediction, which requires long-term stability and physical consistency. We present ACE (AI2 Climate Emulator), a 200M-parameter, autoregressive machine learning emulator of an existing comprehensive 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. The formulation of ACE allows evaluation of physical laws such as the conservation of mass and moisture. The emulator is stable for 10 years, nearly conserves column moisture without explicit constraints and faithfully reproduces the reference model's climate, outperforming a challenging baseline on over 80% of tracked variables. ACE requires nearly 100x less wall clock time and is 100x more energy efficient than the reference model using typically available resources.

Approximated forms of the RII and RIII redistribution matrices are frequently applied to simplify the numerical solution of the radiative transfer problem for polarized radiation, taking partial frequency redistribution (PRD) effects into account. A widely used approximation for RIII is to consider its expression under the assumption of complete frequency redistribution (CRD) in the observer frame (RIII CRD). The adequacy of this approximation for modeling the intensity profiles has been firmly established. By contrast, its suitability for modeling scattering polarization signals has only been analyzed in a few studies, considering simplified settings. In this work, we aim at quantitatively assessing the impact and the range of validity of the RIII CRD approximation in the modeling of scattering polarization. Methods. We first present an analytic comparison between RIII and RIII CRD. We then compare the results of radiative transfer calculations, out of local thermodynamic equilibrium, performed with RIII and RIII CRD in realistic 1D atmospheric models. We focus on the chromospheric Ca i line at 4227 A and on the photospheric Sr i line at 4607 A.

When analyzing data researchers make some decisions that are either arbitrary, based on subjective beliefs about the data generating process, or for which equally justifiable alternative choices could have been made. This wide range of data-analytic choices can be abused, and has been one of the underlying causes of the replication crisis in several fields. Recently, the introduction of multiverse analysis provides researchers with a method to evaluate the stability of the results across reasonable choices that could be made when analyzing data. Multiverse analysis is confined to a descriptive role, lacking a proper and comprehensive inferential procedure. Recently, specification curve analysis adds an inferential procedure to multiverse analysis, but this approach is limited to simple cases related to the linear model, and only allows researchers to infer whether at least one specification rejects the null hypothesis, but not which specifications should be selected. In this paper we present a Post-selection Inference approach to Multiverse Analysis (PIMA) which is a flexible and general inferential approach that accounts for all possible models, i.e., the multiverse of reasonable analyses. The approach allows for a wide range of data specifications (i.e. pre-processing) and any generalized linear model; it allows testing the null hypothesis of a given predictor not being associated with the outcome, by merging information from all reasonable models of multiverse analysis, and provides strong control of the family-wise error rate such that it allows researchers to claim that the null-hypothesis can be rejected for each specification that shows a significant effect. The inferential proposal is based on a conditional resampling procedure. To be continued...

Digital MemComputing machines (DMMs), which employ nonlinear dynamical systems with memory (time non-locality), have proven to be a robust and scalable unconventional computing approach for solving a wide variety of combinatorial optimization problems. However, most of the research so far has focused on the numerical simulations of the equations of motion of DMMs. This inevitably subjects time to discretization, which brings its own (numerical) issues that would be absent in actual physical systems operating in continuous time. Although hardware realizations of DMMs have been previously suggested, their implementation would require materials and devices that are not so easy to integrate with traditional electronics. In this study, we propose a novel hardware design for DMMs that leverages only conventional electronic components. Our findings suggest that this design offers a marked improvement in speed compared to existing realizations of these machines, without requiring special materials or novel device concepts. We also show that these DMMs are robust against additive noise. Moreover, the absence of numerical noise promises enhanced stability over extended periods of the machines' operation, paving the way for addressing even more complex problems.

The accuracy of Earth system models is compromised by unknown and/or unresolved dynamics, making the quantification of systematic model errors essential. While a model parameter estimation, which allows parameters to change spatio-temporally, shows promise in quantifying and mitigating systematic model errors, the estimation of the spatio-temporally distributed model parameters has been practically challenging. Here we present an efficient and practical method to estimate time-varying parameters in high-dimensional spaces. In our proposed method, Hybrid Offline and Online Parameter Estimation with ensemble Kalman filtering (HOOPE-EnKF), model parameters estimated by EnKF are constrained by results of offline batch optimization, in which the posterior distribution of model parameters is obtained by comparing simulated and observed climatological variables. HOOPE-EnKF outperforms the original EnKF in synthetic experiments using a two-scale Lorenz96 model and a simple global general circulation model. One advantage of HOOPE-EnKF over traditional EnKFs is that its performance is not greatly affected by inflation factors for model parameters, thus eliminating the need for extensive tuning of inflation factors. We thoroughly discuss the potential of HOOPE-EnKF as a practical method for improving parameterizations of process-based models and prediction in real-world applications such as numerical weather prediction.

A finite element based computational scheme is developed and employed to assess a duality based variational approach to the solution of the linear heat and transport PDE in one space dimension and time, and the nonlinear system of ODEs of Euler for the rotation of a rigid body about a fixed point. The formulation turns initial-(boundary) value problems into degenerate elliptic boundary value problems in (space)-time domains representing the Euler-Lagrange equations of suitably designed dual functionals in each of the above problems. We demonstrate reasonable success in approximating solutions of this range of parabolic, hyperbolic, and ODE primal problems, which includes energy dissipation as well as conservation, by a unified dual strategy lending itself to a variational formulation. The scheme naturally associates a family of dual solutions to a unique primal solution; such `gauge invariance' is demonstrated in our computed solutions of the heat and transport equations, including the case of a transient dual solution corresponding to a steady primal solution of the heat equation. Primal evolution problems with causality are shown to be correctly approximated by non-causal dual problems.

Generalized cross-validation (GCV) is a widely-used method for estimating the squared out-of-sample prediction risk that employs a scalar degrees of freedom adjustment (in a multiplicative sense) to the squared training error. In this paper, we examine the consistency of GCV for estimating the prediction risk of arbitrary ensembles of penalized least squares estimators. We show that GCV is inconsistent for any finite ensemble of size greater than one. Towards repairing this shortcoming, we identify a correction that involves an additional scalar correction (in an additive sense) based on degrees of freedom adjusted training errors from each ensemble component. The proposed estimator (termed CGCV) maintains the computational advantages of GCV and requires neither sample splitting, model refitting, or out-of-bag risk estimation. The estimator stems from a finer inspection of ensemble risk decomposition and two intermediate risk estimators for the components in this decomposition. We provide a non-asymptotic analysis of the CGCV and the two intermediate risk estimators for ensembles of convex penalized estimators under Gaussian features and a linear response model. In the special case of ridge regression, we extend the analysis to general feature and response distributions using random matrix theory, which establishes model-free uniform consistency of CGCV.

We propose a penalized least-squares method to fit the linear regression model with fitted values that are invariant to invertible linear transformations of the design matrix. This invariance is important, for example, when practitioners have categorical predictors and interactions. Our method has the same computational cost as ridge-penalized least squares, which lacks this invariance. We derive the expected squared distance between the vector of population fitted values and its shrinkage estimator as well as the tuning parameter value that minimizes this expectation. In addition to using cross validation, we construct two estimators of this optimal tuning parameter value and study their asymptotic properties. Our numerical experiments and data examples show that our method performs similarly to ridge-penalized least-squares.

We introduce a flexible method to simultaneously infer both the drift and volatility functions of a discretely observed scalar diffusion. We introduce spline bases to represent these functions and develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to infer, a posteriori, the coefficients of these functions in the spline basis. A key innovation is that we use spline bases to model transformed versions of the drift and volatility functions rather than the functions themselves. The output of the algorithm is a posterior sample of plausible drift and volatility functions that are not constrained to any particular parametric family. The flexibility of this approach provides practitioners a powerful investigative tool, allowing them to posit a variety of parametric models to better capture the underlying dynamics of their processes of interest. We illustrate the versatility of our method by applying it to challenging datasets from finance, paleoclimatology, and astrophysics. In view of the parametric diffusion models widely employed in the literature for those examples, some of our results are surprising since they call into question some aspects of these models.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are popular nonparametric statistical models for learning unknown functions and quantifying the spatiotemporal uncertainty in data. Recent works have extended GPs to model scalar and vector quantities distributed over non-Euclidean domains, including smooth manifolds appearing in numerous fields such as computer vision, dynamical systems, and neuroscience. However, these approaches assume that the manifold underlying the data is known, limiting their practical utility. We introduce RVGP, a generalisation of GPs for learning vector signals over latent Riemannian manifolds. Our method uses positional encoding with eigenfunctions of the connection Laplacian, associated with the tangent bundle, readily derived from common graph-based approximation of data. We demonstrate that RVGP possesses global regularity over the manifold, which allows it to super-resolve and inpaint vector fields while preserving singularities. Furthermore, we use RVGP to reconstruct high-density neural dynamics derived from low-density EEG recordings in healthy individuals and Alzheimer's patients. We show that vector field singularities are important disease markers and that their reconstruction leads to a comparable classification accuracy of disease states to high-density recordings. Thus, our method overcomes a significant practical limitation in experimental and clinical applications.