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In this work we connect two notions: That of the nonparametric mode of a probability measure, defined by asymptotic small ball probabilities, and that of the Onsager-Machlup functional, a generalized density also defined via asymptotic small ball probabilities. We show that in a separable Hilbert space setting and under mild conditions on the likelihood, modes of a Bayesian posterior distribution based upon a Gaussian prior exist and agree with the minimizers of its Onsager-Machlup functional and thus also with weak posterior modes. We apply this result to inverse problems and derive conditions on the forward mapping under which this variational characterization of posterior modes holds. Our results show rigorously that in the limit case of infinite-dimensional data corrupted by additive Gaussian or Laplacian noise, nonparametric maximum a posteriori estimation is equivalent to Tikhonov-Phillips regularization. In comparison with the work of Dashti, Law, Stuart, and Voss (2013), the assumptions on the likelihood are relaxed so that they cover in particular the important case of white Gaussian process noise. We illustrate our results by applying them to a severely ill-posed linear problem with Laplacian noise, where we express the maximum a posteriori estimator analytically and study its rate of convergence in the small noise limit.

Originating from cooperative game theory, Shapley values have become one of the most widely used measures for variable importance in applied Machine Learning. However, the statistical understanding of Shapley values is still limited. In this paper, we take a nonparametric (or smoothing) perspective by introducing Shapley curves as a local measure of variable importance. We propose two estimation strategies and derive the consistency and asymptotic normality both under independence and dependence among the features. This allows us to construct confidence intervals and conduct inference on the estimated Shapley curves. We propose a novel version of the wild bootstrap procedure, specifically adjusted to give good finite sample coverage of the Shapley curves. The asymptotic results are validated in extensive experiments. In an empirical application, we analyze which attributes drive the prices of vehicles.

Profile likelihoods are rarely used in geostatistical models due to the computational burden imposed by repeated decompositions of large variance matrices. Accounting for uncertainty in covariance parameters can be highly consequential in geostatistical models as some covariance parameters are poorly identified, the problem is severe enough that the differentiability parameter of the Matern correlation function is typically treated as fixed. The problem is compounded with anisotropic spatial models as there are two additional parameters to consider. In this paper, we make the following contributions: 1, A methodology is created for profile likelihoods for Gaussian spatial models with Mat\'ern family of correlation functions, including anisotropic models. This methodology adopts a novel reparametrization for generation of representative points, and uses GPUs for parallel profile likelihoods computation in software implementation. 2, We show the profile likelihood of the Mat\'ern shape parameter is often quite flat but still identifiable, it can usually rule out very small values. 3, Simulation studies and applications on real data examples show that profile-based confidence intervals of covariance parameters and regression parameters have superior coverage to the traditional standard Wald type confidence intervals.

The chain graph model admits both undirected and directed edges in one graph, where symmetric conditional dependencies are encoded via undirected edges and asymmetric causal relations are encoded via directed edges. Though frequently encountered in practice, the chain graph model has been largely under investigated in literature, possibly due to the lack of identifiability conditions between undirected and directed edges. In this paper, we first establish a set of novel identifiability conditions for the Gaussian chain graph model, exploiting a low rank plus sparse decomposition of the precision matrix. Further, an efficient learning algorithm is built upon the identifiability conditions to fully recover the chain graph structure. Theoretical analysis on the proposed method is conducted, assuring its asymptotic consistency in recovering the exact chain graph structure. The advantage of the proposed method is also supported by numerical experiments on both simulated examples and a real application on the Standard & Poor 500 index data.

We focus on the task of approximating the optimal value function in deep reinforcement learning. This iterative process is comprised of approximately solving a sequence of optimization problems where the objective function can change per iteration. The common approach to solving the problem is to employ modern variants of the stochastic gradient descent algorithm such as Adam. These optimizers maintain their own internal parameters such as estimates of the first and the second moment of the gradient, and update these parameters over time. Therefore, information obtained in previous iterations is being used to solve the optimization problem in the current iteration. We hypothesize that this can contaminate the internal parameters of the employed optimizer in situations where the optimization landscape of the previous iterations is quite different from the current iteration. To hedge against this effect, a simple idea is to reset the internal parameters of the optimizer when starting a new iteration. We empirically investigate this resetting strategy by employing various optimizers in conjunction with the Rainbow algorithm. We demonstrate that this simple modification unleashes the true potential of modern optimizers, and significantly improves the performance of deep RL on the Atari benchmark.

The univariate generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is the most commonly used tool for analyzing the properties of rare events. The ever greater utilization of Bayesian methods for extreme value analysis warrants detailed theoretical investigation, which has thus far been underdeveloped. Even the most basic asymptotic results are difficult to obtain because the GEV fails to satisfy standard regularity conditions. Here, we prove that the posterior distribution of the GEV parameter vector, given $n$ independent and identically distributed samples, converges in distribution to a trivariate normal distribution. The proof necessitates analyzing integrals of the GEV likelihood function over the entire parameter space, which requires considerable care because the support of the GEV density depends on the parameters in complicated ways.

In order to solve tasks like uncertainty quantification or hypothesis tests in Bayesian imaging inverse problems, we often have to draw samples from the arising posterior distribution. For the usually log-concave but high-dimensional posteriors, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on time discretizations of Langevin diffusion are a popular tool. If the potential defining the distribution is non-smooth, these discretizations are usually of an implicit form leading to Langevin sampling algorithms that require the evaluation of proximal operators. For some of the potentials relevant in imaging problems this is only possible approximately using an iterative scheme. We investigate the behaviour of a proximal Langevin algorithm under the presence of errors in the evaluation of proximal mappings. We generalize existing non-asymptotic and asymptotic convergence results of the exact algorithm to our inexact setting and quantify the bias between the target and the algorithm's stationary distribution due to the errors. We show that the additional bias stays bounded for bounded errors and converges to zero for decaying errors in a strongly convex setting. We apply the inexact algorithm to sample numerically from the posterior of typical imaging inverse problems in which we can only approximate the proximal operator by an iterative scheme and validate our theoretical convergence results.

In this paper, practically computable low-order approximations of potentially high-dimensional differential equations driven by geometric rough paths are proposed and investigated. In particular, equations are studied that cover the linear setting, but we allow for a certain type of dissipative nonlinearity in the drift as well. In a first step, a linear subspace is found that contains the solution space of the underlying rough differential equation (RDE). This subspace is associated to covariances of linear Ito-stochastic differential equations which is shown exploiting a Gronwall lemma for matrix differential equations. Orthogonal projections onto the identified subspace lead to a first exact reduced order system. Secondly, a linear map of the RDE solution (quantity of interest) is analyzed in terms of redundant information meaning that state variables are found that do not contribute to the quantity of interest. Once more, a link to Ito-stochastic differential equations is used. Removing such unnecessary information from the RDE provides a further dimension reduction without causing an error. Finally, we discretize a linear parabolic rough partial differential equation in space. The resulting large-order RDE is subsequently tackled with the exact reduction techniques studied in this paper. We illustrate the enormous complexity reduction potential in the corresponding numerical experiments.

We propose a dynamical low-rank algorithm for a gyrokinetic model that is used to describe strongly magnetized plasmas. The low-rank approximation is based on a decomposition into variables parallel and perpendicular to the magnetic field, as suggested by the physics of the underlying problem. We show that the resulting scheme exactly recovers the dispersion relation even with rank 1. We then perform a simulation of kinetic shear Alfv\'en waves and show that using the proposed dynamical low-rank algorithm a drastic reduction (multiple orders of magnitude) in both computational time and memory consumption can be achieved. We also compare the performance of robust first and second-order projector splitting, BUG (also called unconventional), and augmented BUG integrators as well as a FFT-based spectral and Lax--Wendroff discretization.

Due to its empirical success in few-shot classification and reinforcement learning, meta-learning has recently received significant interest. Meta-learning methods leverage data from previous tasks to learn a new task in a sample-efficient manner. In particular, model-agnostic methods look for initialisation points from which gradient descent quickly adapts to any new task. Although it has been empirically suggested that such methods perform well by learning shared representations during pretraining, there is limited theoretical evidence of such behavior. More importantly, it has not been rigorously shown that these methods still learn a shared structure, despite architectural misspecifications. In this direction, this work shows, in the limit of an infinite number of tasks, that first-order ANIL with a linear two-layer network architecture successfully learns linear shared representations. This result even holds with a misspecified network parameterisation; having a width larger than the dimension of the shared representations results in an asymptotically low-rank solution. The learnt solution then yields a good adaptation performance on any new task after a single gradient step. Overall this illustrates how well model-agnostic methods such as first-order ANIL can learn shared representations.