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We test the hypothesis that discourse predictability influences Hindi syntactic choice. While prior work has shown that a number of factors (e.g., information status, dependency length, and syntactic surprisal) influence Hindi word order preferences, the role of discourse predictability is underexplored in the literature. Inspired by prior work on syntactic priming, we investigate how the words and syntactic structures in a sentence influence the word order of the following sentences. Specifically, we extract sentences from the Hindi-Urdu Treebank corpus (HUTB), permute the preverbal constituents of those sentences, and build a classifier to predict which sentences actually occurred in the corpus against artificially generated distractors. The classifier uses a number of discourse-based features and cognitive features to make its predictions, including dependency length, surprisal, and information status. We find that information status and LSTM-based discourse predictability influence word order choices, especially for non-canonical object-fronted orders. We conclude by situating our results within the broader syntactic priming literature.

Machine learning (ML) models are costly to train as they can require a significant amount of data, computational resources and technical expertise. Thus, they constitute valuable intellectual property that needs protection from adversaries wanting to steal them. Ownership verification techniques allow the victims of model stealing attacks to demonstrate that a suspect model was in fact stolen from theirs. Although a number of ownership verification techniques based on watermarking or fingerprinting have been proposed, most of them fall short either in terms of security guarantees (well-equipped adversaries can evade verification) or computational cost. A fingerprinting technique introduced at ICLR '21, Dataset Inference (DI), has been shown to offer better robustness and efficiency than prior methods. The authors of DI provided a correctness proof for linear (suspect) models. However, in the same setting, we prove that DI suffers from high false positives (FPs) -- it can incorrectly identify an independent model trained with non-overlapping data from the same distribution as stolen. We further prove that DI also triggers FPs in realistic, non-linear suspect models. We then confirm empirically that DI leads to FPs, with high confidence. Second, we show that DI also suffers from false negatives (FNs) -- an adversary can fool DI by regularising a stolen model's decision boundaries using adversarial training, thereby leading to an FN. To this end, we demonstrate that DI fails to identify a model adversarially trained from a stolen dataset -- the setting where DI is the hardest to evade. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings, the viability of fingerprinting-based ownership verification in general, and suggest directions for future work.

Despite their strong performance on many tasks, pre-trained language models have been shown to struggle on out-of-distribution compositional generalization. Meanwhile, recent work has shown considerable improvements on many NLP tasks from model scaling. Can scaling up model size also improve compositional generalization in semantic parsing? We evaluate encoder-decoder models up to 11B parameters and decoder-only models up to 540B parameters, and compare model scaling curves for three different methods for applying a pre-trained language model to a new task: fine-tuning all parameters, prompt tuning, and in-context learning. We observe that fine-tuning generally has flat or negative scaling curves on out-of-distribution compositional generalization in semantic parsing evaluations. In-context learning has positive scaling curves, but is generally outperformed by much smaller fine-tuned models. Prompt-tuning can outperform fine-tuning, suggesting further potential improvements from scaling as it exhibits a more positive scaling curve. Additionally, we identify several error trends that vary with model scale. For example, larger models are generally better at modeling the syntax of the output space, but are also more prone to certain types of overfitting. Overall, our study highlights limitations of current techniques for effectively leveraging model scale for compositional generalization, while our analysis also suggests promising directions for future work.

In this paper, we consider recent progress in estimating the average treatment effect when extreme inverse probability weights are present and focus on methods that account for a possible violation of the positivity assumption. These methods aim at estimating the treatment effect on the subpopulation of patients for whom there is a clinical equipoise. We propose a systematic approach to determine their related causal estimands and develop new insights into the properties of the weights targeting such a subpopulation. Then, we examine the roles of overlap weights, matching weights, Shannon's entropy weights, and beta weights. This helps us characterize and compare their underlying estimators, analytically and via simulations, in terms of the accuracy, precision, and root mean squared error. Moreover, we study the asymptotic behaviors of their augmented estimators (that mimic doubly robust estimators), which lead to improved estimations when either the propensity or the regression models are correctly specified. Based on the analytical and simulation results, we conclude that overall overlap weights are preferable to matching weights, especially when there is moderate or extreme violations of the positivity assumption. Finally, we illustrate the methods using a real data example marked by extreme inverse probability weights.

Humans are excellent at understanding language and vision to accomplish a wide range of tasks. In contrast, creating general instruction-following embodied agents remains a difficult challenge. Prior work that uses pure language-only models lack visual grounding, making it difficult to connect language instructions with visual observations. On the other hand, methods that use pre-trained vision-language models typically come with divided language and visual representations, requiring designing specialized network architecture to fuse them together. We propose a simple yet effective model for robots to solve instruction-following tasks in vision-based environments. Our \ours method consists of a multimodal transformer that encodes visual observations and language instructions, and a policy transformer that predicts actions based on encoded representations. The multimodal transformer is pre-trained on millions of image-text pairs and natural language text, thereby producing generic cross-modal representations of observations and instructions. The policy transformer keeps track of the full history of observations and actions, and predicts actions autoregressively. We show that this unified transformer model outperforms all state-of-the-art pre-trained or trained-from-scratch methods in both single-task and multi-task settings. Our model also shows better model scalability and generalization ability than prior work.

Mixed-effect models are flexible tools for researchers in a myriad of medical fields, but that flexibility comes at the cost of complexity and if users are not careful in how their model is specified, they could be making faulty inferences from their data. We argue that there is significant confusion around appropriate random effects to be included in a model given the study design, with researchers generally being better at specifying the fixed effects of a model which map onto to their research hypotheses. To that end, we present an instructive framework for evaluating the random effects of a model in three different situations: (1) longitudinal designs; (2) factorial repeated measures; and (3) when dealing with multiple sources of variance. We provide worked examples with open-access code and data in an online repository. This framework will be helpful for students and researchers who are new to mixed effect models, and to reviewers who may have to evaluate a novel model as part of their review.

The goal of sequential event prediction is to estimate the next event based on a sequence of historical events, with applications to sequential recommendation, user behavior analysis and clinical treatment. In practice, the next-event prediction models are trained with sequential data collected at one time and need to generalize to newly arrived sequences in remote future, which requires models to handle temporal distribution shift from training to testing. In this paper, we first take a data-generating perspective to reveal a negative result that existing approaches with maximum likelihood estimation would fail for distribution shift due to the latent context confounder, i.e., the common cause for the historical events and the next event. Then we devise a new learning objective based on backdoor adjustment and further harness variational inference to make it tractable for sequence learning problems. On top of that, we propose a framework with hierarchical branching structures for learning context-specific representations. Comprehensive experiments on diverse tasks (e.g., sequential recommendation) demonstrate the effectiveness, applicability and scalability of our method with various off-the-shelf models as backbones.

Recent years have witnessed remarkable progress in artificial intelligence (AI) thanks to refined deep network structures, powerful computing devices, and large-scale labeled datasets. However, researchers have mainly invested in the optimization of models and computational devices, leading to the fact that good models and powerful computing devices are currently readily available, while datasets are still stuck at the initial stage of large-scale but low quality. Data becomes a major obstacle to AI development. Taking note of this, we dig deeper and find that there has been some but unstructured work on data optimization. They focus on various problems in datasets and attempt to improve dataset quality by optimizing its structure to facilitate AI development. In this paper, we present the first review of recent advances in this area. First, we summarize and analyze various problems that exist in large-scale computer vision datasets. We then define data optimization and classify data optimization algorithms into three directions according to the optimization form: data sampling, data subset selection, and active learning. Next, we organize these data optimization works according to data problems addressed, and provide a systematic and comparative description. Finally, we summarize the existing literature and propose some potential future research topics.

A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the remaining challenges. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or as a means to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the performance, robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the computational linguistics community.

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.