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A new unimodal distribution family indexed by the mode and three other parameters is derived from a mixture of a Gumbel distribution for the maximum and a Gumbel distribution for the minimum. Properties of the proposed distribution are explored, including model identifiability and flexibility in capturing heavy-tailed data that exhibit different directions of skewness over a wide range. Both frequentist and Bayesian methods are developed to infer parameters in the new distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate satisfactory performance of both methods. By fitting the proposed model to simulated data and data from an application in hydrology, it is shown that the proposed flexible distribution is especially suitable for data containing extreme values in either direction, with the mode being a location parameter of interest. A regression model concerning the mode of a response given covariates based on the proposed unimodal distribution can be easily formulated, which we apply to data from an application in criminology to reveal interesting data features that are obscured by outliers.

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Learning on graphs, where instance nodes are inter-connected, has become one of the central problems for deep learning, as relational structures are pervasive and induce data inter-dependence which hinders trivial adaptation of existing approaches that assume inputs to be i.i.d.~sampled. However, current models mostly focus on improving testing performance of in-distribution data and largely ignore the potential risk w.r.t. out-of-distribution (OOD) testing samples that may cause negative outcome if the prediction is overconfident on them. In this paper, we investigate the under-explored problem, OOD detection on graph-structured data, and identify a provably effective OOD discriminator based on an energy function directly extracted from graph neural networks trained with standard classification loss. This paves a way for a simple, powerful and efficient OOD detection model for GNN-based learning on graphs, which we call GNNSafe. It also has nice theoretical properties that guarantee an overall distinguishable margin between the detection scores for in-distribution and OOD samples, which, more critically, can be further strengthened by a learning-free energy belief propagation scheme. For comprehensive evaluation, we introduce new benchmark settings that evaluate the model for detecting OOD data from both synthetic and real distribution shifts (cross-domain graph shifts and temporal graph shifts). The results show that GNNSafe achieves up to $17.0\%$ AUROC improvement over state-of-the-arts and it could serve as simple yet strong baselines in such an under-developed area.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are increasingly prevalent in education research, and are often regarded as a gold standard of causal inference. Two main virtues of randomized experiments are that they (1) do not suffer from confounding, thereby allowing for an unbiased estimate of an intervention's causal impact, and (2) allow for design-based inference, meaning that the physical act of randomization largely justifies the statistical assumptions made. However, RCT sample sizes are often small, leading to low precision; in many cases RCT estimates may be too imprecise to guide policy or inform science. Observational studies, by contrast, have strengths and weaknesses complementary to those of RCTs. Observational studies typically offer much larger sample sizes, but may suffer confounding. In many contexts, experimental and observational data exist side by side, allowing the possibility of integrating "big observational data" with "small but high-quality experimental data" to get the best of both. Such approaches hold particular promise in the field of education, where RCT sample sizes are often small due to cost constraints, but automatic collection of observational data, such as in computerized educational technology applications, or in state longitudinal data systems (SLDS) with administrative data on hundreds of thousand of students, has made rich, high-dimensional observational data widely available. We outline an approach that allows one to employ machine learning algorithms to learn from the observational data, and use the resulting models to improve precision in randomized experiments. Importantly, there is no requirement that the machine learning models are "correct" in any sense, and the final experimental results are guaranteed to be exactly unbiased. Thus, there is no danger of confounding biases in the observational data leaking into the experiment.

We derive unconditionally stable and convergent variable-step BDF2 scheme for solving the MBE model with slope selection. The discrete orthogonal convolution kernels of the variable-step BDF2 method is commonly utilized recently for solving the phase field models. In this paper, we further prove some new inequalities, concerning the vector forms, for the kernels especially dealing with the nonlinear terms in the slope selection model. The convergence rate of the fully discrete scheme is proved to be two both in time and space in $L^2$ norm under the setting of the variable time steps. Energy dissipation law is proved rigorously with a modified energy by adding a small term to the discrete version of the original free energy functional. Two numerical examples including an adaptive time-stepping strategy are given to verify the convergence rate and the energy dissipation law.

Multi-robot cooperative control has gained extensive research interest due to its wide applications in civil, security, and military domains. This paper proposes a cooperative control algorithm for multi-robot systems with general linear dynamics. The algorithm is based on distributed cooperative optimisation and output regulation, and it achieves global optimum by utilising only information shared among neighbouring robots. Technically, a high-level distributed optimisation algorithm for multi-robot systems is presented, which will serve as an optimal reference generator for each individual agent. Then, based on the distributed optimisation algorithm, an output regulation method is utilised to solve the optimal coordination problem for general linear dynamic systems. The convergence of the proposed algorithm is theoretically proved. Both numerical simulations and real-time physical robot experiments are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed cooperative control algorithms.

With continuous outcomes, the average causal effect is typically defined using a contrast of expected potential outcomes. However, in the presence of skewed outcome data, the expectation may no longer be meaningful. In practice the typical approach is to either "ignore or transform" - ignore the skewness altogether or transform the outcome to obtain a more symmetric distribution, although neither approach is entirely satisfactory. Alternatively the causal effect can be redefined as a contrast of median potential outcomes, yet discussion of confounding-adjustment methods to estimate this parameter is limited. In this study we described and compared confounding-adjustment methods to address this gap. The methods considered were multivariable quantile regression, an inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimator, weighted quantile regression and two little-known implementations of g-computation for this problem. Motivated by a cohort investigation in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, we conducted a simulation study that found the IPW estimator, weighted quantile regression and g-computation implementations minimised bias when the relevant models were correctly specified, with g-computation additionally minimising the variance. These methods provide appealing alternatives to the common "ignore or transform" approach and multivariable quantile regression, enhancing our capability to obtain meaningful causal effect estimates with skewed outcome data.

This paper presents a novel mechanism design for multi-item auction settings with uncertain bidders' type distributions. Our proposed approach utilizes nonparametric density estimation to accurately estimate bidders' types from historical bids, and is built upon the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) mechanism, ensuring satisfaction of Bayesian incentive compatibility (BIC) and $\delta$-individual rationality (IR). To further enhance the efficiency of our mechanism, we introduce two novel strategies for query reduction: a filtering method that screens potential winners' value regions within the confidence intervals generated by our estimated distribution, and a classification strategy that designates the lower bound of an interval as the estimated type when the length is below a threshold value. Simulation experiments conducted on both small-scale and large-scale data demonstrate that our mechanism consistently outperforms existing methods in terms of revenue maximization and query reduction, particularly in large-scale scenarios. This makes our proposed mechanism a highly desirable and effective option for sellers in the realm of multi-item auctions.

Frequent false alarms impede the promotion of unsupervised anomaly detection algorithms in industrial applications. Potential characteristics of false alarms depending on the trained detector are revealed by investigating density probability distributions of prediction scores in the out-of-distribution anomaly detection tasks. An SVM-based classifier is exploited as a post-processing module to identify false alarms from the anomaly map at the object level. Besides, a sample synthesis strategy is devised to incorporate fuzzy prior knowledge on the specific application in the anomaly-free training dataset. Experimental results illustrate that the proposed method comprehensively improves the performances of two segmentation models at both image and pixel levels on two industrial applications.

We expect the generalization error to improve with more samples from a similar task, and to deteriorate with more samples from an out-of-distribution (OOD) task. In this work, we show a counter-intuitive phenomenon: the generalization error of a task can be a non-monotonic function of the number of OOD samples. As the number of OOD samples increases, the generalization error on the target task improves before deteriorating beyond a threshold. In other words, there is value in training on small amounts of OOD data. We use Fisher's Linear Discriminant on synthetic datasets and deep networks on computer vision benchmarks such as MNIST, CIFAR-10, CINIC-10, PACS and DomainNet to demonstrate and analyze this phenomenon. In the idealistic setting where we know which samples are OOD, we show that these non-monotonic trends can be exploited using an appropriately weighted objective of the target and OOD empirical risk. While its practical utility is limited, this does suggest that if we can detect OOD samples, then there may be ways to benefit from them. When we do not know which samples are OOD, we show how a number of go-to strategies such as data-augmentation, hyper-parameter optimization, and pre-training are not enough to ensure that the target generalization error does not deteriorate with the number of OOD samples in the dataset.

Gradient Balancing (GraB) is a recently proposed technique that finds provably better data permutations when training models with multiple epochs over a finite dataset. It converges at a faster rate than the widely adopted Random Reshuffling, by minimizing the discrepancy of the gradients on adjacently selected examples. However, GraB only operates under critical assumptions such as small batch sizes and centralized data, leaving open the question of how to order examples at large scale -- i.e. distributed learning with decentralized data. To alleviate the limitation, in this paper we propose D-GraB that involves two novel designs: (1) $\textsf{PairBalance}$ that eliminates the requirement to use stale gradient mean in GraB which critically relies on small learning rates; (2) an ordering protocol that runs $\textsf{PairBalance}$ in a distributed environment with negligible overhead, which benefits from both data ordering and parallelism. We prove D-GraB enjoys linear speed up at rate $\tilde{O}((mnT)^{-2/3})$ on smooth non-convex objectives and $\tilde{O}((mnT)^{-2})$ under PL condition, where $n$ denotes the number of parallel workers, $m$ denotes the number of examples per worker and $T$ denotes the number of epochs. Empirically, we show on various applications including GLUE, CIFAR10 and WikiText-2 that D-GraB outperforms naive parallel GraB and Distributed Random Reshuffling in terms of both training and validation performance.

Applying artificial intelligence techniques in medical imaging is one of the most promising areas in medicine. However, most of the recent success in this area highly relies on large amounts of carefully annotated data, whereas annotating medical images is a costly process. In this paper, we propose a novel method, called FocalMix, which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to leverage recent advances in semi-supervised learning (SSL) for 3D medical image detection. We conducted extensive experiments on two widely used datasets for lung nodule detection, LUNA16 and NLST. Results show that our proposed SSL methods can achieve a substantial improvement of up to 17.3% over state-of-the-art supervised learning approaches with 400 unlabeled CT scans.

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