We develop a structural econometric model to capture the decision dynamics of human evaluators on an online micro-lending platform, and estimate the model parameters using a real-world dataset. We find two types of biases in gender, preference-based bias and belief-based bias, are present in human evaluators' decisions. Both types of biases are in favor of female applicants. Through counterfactual simulations, we quantify the effect of gender bias on loan granting outcomes and the welfare of the company and the borrowers. Our results imply that both the existence of the preference-based bias and that of the belief-based bias reduce the company's profits. When the preference-based bias is removed, the company earns more profits. When the belief-based bias is removed, the company's profits also increase. Both increases result from raising the approval probability for borrowers, especially male borrowers, who eventually pay back loans. For borrowers, the elimination of either bias decreases the gender gap of the true positive rates in the credit risk evaluation. We also train machine learning algorithms on both the real-world data and the data from the counterfactual simulations. We compare the decisions made by those algorithms to see how evaluators' biases are inherited by the algorithms and reflected in machine-based decisions. We find that machine learning algorithms can mitigate both the preference-based bias and the belief-based bias.
The wide dissemination of fake news is increasingly threatening both individuals and society. Fake news detection aims to train a model on the past news and detect fake news of the future. Though great efforts have been made, existing fake news detection methods overlooked the unintended entity bias in the real-world data, which seriously influences models' generalization ability to future data. For example, 97\% of news pieces in 2010-2017 containing the entity `Donald Trump' are real in our data, but the percentage falls down to merely 33\% in 2018. This would lead the model trained on the former set to hardly generalize to the latter, as it tends to predict news pieces about `Donald Trump' as real for lower training loss. In this paper, we propose an entity debiasing framework (\textbf{ENDEF}) which generalizes fake news detection models to the future data by mitigating entity bias from a cause-effect perspective. Based on the causal graph among entities, news contents, and news veracity, we separately model the contribution of each cause (entities and contents) during training. In the inference stage, we remove the direct effect of the entities to mitigate entity bias. Extensive offline experiments on the English and Chinese datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework can largely improve the performance of base fake news detectors, and online tests verify its superiority in practice. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to explicitly improve the generalization ability of fake news detection models to the future data. The code has been released at //github.com/ICTMCG/ENDEF-SIGIR2022.
The growing complexity of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) and challenges in ensuring safety and security have led to the increasing use of deep learning methods for accurate and scalable anomaly detection. However, machine learning (ML) models often suffer from low performance in predicting unexpected data and are vulnerable to accidental or malicious perturbations. Although robustness testing of deep learning models has been extensively explored in applications such as image classification and speech recognition, less attention has been paid to ML-driven safety monitoring in CPS. This paper presents the preliminary results on evaluating the robustness of ML-based anomaly detection methods in safety-critical CPS against two types of accidental and malicious input perturbations, generated using a Gaussian-based noise model and the Fast Gradient Sign Method (FGSM). We test the hypothesis of whether integrating the domain knowledge (e.g., on unsafe system behavior) with the ML models can improve the robustness of anomaly detection without sacrificing accuracy and transparency. Experimental results with two case studies of Artificial Pancreas Systems (APS) for diabetes management show that ML-based safety monitors trained with domain knowledge can reduce on average up to 54.2% of robustness error and keep the average F1 scores high while improving transparency.
Current practices in metric evaluation focus on one single dataset, e.g., Newstest dataset in each year's WMT Metrics Shared Task. However, in this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively show that the performances of metrics are sensitive to data. The ranking of metrics varies when the evaluation is conducted on different datasets. Then this paper further investigates two potential hypotheses, i.e., insignificant data points and the deviation of Independent and Identically Distributed (i.i.d) assumption, which may take responsibility for the issue of data variance. In conclusion, our findings suggest that when evaluating automatic translation metrics, researchers should take data variance into account and be cautious to claim the result on a single dataset, because it may leads to inconsistent results with most of other datasets.
We present a data-efficient framework for solving sequential decision-making problems which exploits the combination of reinforcement learning (RL) and latent variable generative models. The framework, called GenRL, trains deep policies by introducing an action latent variable such that the feed-forward policy search can be divided into two parts: (i) training a sub-policy that outputs a distribution over the action latent variable given a state of the system, and (ii) unsupervised training of a generative model that outputs a sequence of motor actions conditioned on the latent action variable. GenRL enables safe exploration and alleviates the data-inefficiency problem as it exploits prior knowledge about valid sequences of motor actions. Moreover, we provide a set of measures for evaluation of generative models such that we are able to predict the performance of the RL policy training prior to the actual training on a physical robot. We experimentally determine the characteristics of generative models that have most influence on the performance of the final policy training on two robotics tasks: shooting a hockey puck and throwing a basketball. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that GenRL is the only method which can safely and efficiently solve the robotics tasks compared to two state-of-the-art RL methods.
Lately, several benchmark studies have shown that the state of the art in some of the sub-fields of machine learning actually has not progressed despite progress being reported in the literature. The lack of progress is partly caused by the irreproducibility of many model comparison studies. Model comparison studies are conducted that do not control for many known sources of irreproducibility. This leads to results that cannot be verified by third parties. Our objective is to provide an overview of the sources of irreproducibility that are reported in the literature. We review the literature to provide an overview and a taxonomy in addition to a discussion on the identified sources of irreproducibility. Finally, we identify three lines of further inquiry.
Biomedical Question Answering (BQA) has attracted increasing attention in recent years due to its promising application prospect. It is a challenging task because the biomedical questions are professional and usually vary widely. Existing question answering methods answer all questions with a homogeneous model, leading to various types of questions competing for the shared parameters, which will confuse the model decision for each single type of questions. In this paper, in order to alleviate the parameter competition problem, we propose a Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) based question answering method called MoEBQA that decouples the computation for different types of questions by sparse routing. To be specific, we split a pretrained Transformer model into bottom and top blocks. The bottom blocks are shared by all the examples, aiming to capture the general features. The top blocks are extended to an MoE version that consists of a series of independent experts, where each example is assigned to a few experts according to its underlying question type. MoEBQA automatically learns the routing strategy in an end-to-end manner so that each expert tends to deal with the question types it is expert in. We evaluate MoEBQA on three BQA datasets constructed based on real examinations. The results show that our MoE extension significantly boosts the performance of question answering models and achieves new state-of-the-art performance. In addition, we elaborately analyze our MoE modules to reveal how MoEBQA works and find that it can automatically group the questions into human-readable clusters.
Blockchain and smart contract technology are novel approaches to data and code management that facilitate trusted computing by allowing for development in a distributed and decentralized manner. Testing smart contracts comes with its own set of challenges which have not yet been fully identified and explored. Although existing tools can identify and discover known vulnerabilities and their interactions on the Ethereum blockchain through random search or symbolic execution, these tools generally do not produce test suites suitable for human oracles. In this paper, we present AGSOLT (Automated Generator of Solidity Test Suites). We demonstrate its efficiency by implementing two search algorithms to automatically generate test suites for stand-alone Solidity smart contracts, taking into account some of the blockchain-specific challenges. To test AGSOLT, we compared a random search algorithm and a genetic algorithm on a set of 36 real-world smart contracts. We found that AGSOLT is capable of achieving high branch coverage with both approaches and even discovered some errors in some of the most popular Solidity smart contracts on Github.
This paper proposes an active learning algorithm for solving regression and classification problems based on inverse-distance weighting functions for selecting the feature vectors to query. The algorithm has the following features: (i) supports both pool-based and population-based sampling; (ii) is independent of the type of predictor used; (iii) can handle known and unknown constraints on the queryable feature vectors; and (iv) can run either sequentially, or in batch mode, depending on how often the predictor is retrained. The method's potential is shown in numerical tests on illustrative synthetic problems and real-world regression and classification datasets from the UCI repository. A Python implementation of the algorithm that we call IDEAL (Inverse-Distance based Exploration for Active Learning), is available at \url{//cse.lab.imtlucca.it/~bemporad/ideal}.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Since hardware resources are limited, the objective of training deep learning models is typically to maximize accuracy subject to the time and memory constraints of training and inference. We study the impact of model size in this setting, focusing on Transformer models for NLP tasks that are limited by compute: self-supervised pretraining and high-resource machine translation. We first show that even though smaller Transformer models execute faster per iteration, wider and deeper models converge in significantly fewer steps. Moreover, this acceleration in convergence typically outpaces the additional computational overhead of using larger models. Therefore, the most compute-efficient training strategy is to counterintuitively train extremely large models but stop after a small number of iterations. This leads to an apparent trade-off between the training efficiency of large Transformer models and the inference efficiency of small Transformer models. However, we show that large models are more robust to compression techniques such as quantization and pruning than small models. Consequently, one can get the best of both worlds: heavily compressed, large models achieve higher accuracy than lightly compressed, small models.