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We study the optimal sample complexity of learning a Gaussian directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data. Our main result establishes the minimax optimal sample complexity for learning the structure of a linear Gaussian DAG model with equal variances to be $n\asymp q\log(d/q)$, where $q$ is the maximum number of parents and $d$ is the number of nodes. We further make comparisons with the classical problem of learning (undirected) Gaussian graphical models, showing that under the equal variance assumption, these two problems share the same optimal sample complexity. In other words, at least for Gaussian models with equal error variances, learning a directed graphical model is not more difficult than learning an undirected graphical model. Our results also extend to more general identification assumptions as well as subgaussian errors.

We study the robust mean estimation problem in high dimensions, where less than half of the datapoints can be arbitrarily corrupted. Motivated by compressive sensing, we formulate the robust mean estimation problem as the minimization of the $\ell_0$-`norm' of an \emph{outlier indicator vector}, under a second moment constraint on the datapoints. We further relax the $\ell_0$-`norm' to the $\ell_p$-norm ($0<p\leq 1$) in the objective and prove that the global minima for each of these objectives are order-optimal for the robust mean estimation problem. Then we propose a computationally tractable iterative $\ell_p$-minimization and hard thresholding algorithm that outputs an order-optimal robust estimate of the population mean. Both synthetic and real data experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art robust mean estimation methods. The source code will be made available at GitHub.

The saddlepoint approximation gives an approximation to the density of a random variable in terms of its moment generating function. When the underlying random variable is itself the sum of $n$ unobserved i.i.d. terms, the basic classical result is that the relative error in the density is of order $1/n$. If instead the approximation is interpreted as a likelihood and maximised as a function of model parameters, the result is an approximation to the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) that can be much faster to compute than the true MLE. This paper proves the analogous basic result for the approximation error between the saddlepoint MLE and the true MLE: subject to certain explicit identifiability conditions, the error has asymptotic size $O(1/n^2)$ for some parameters, and $O(1/n^{3/2})$ or $O(1/n)$ for others. In all three cases, the approximation errors are asymptotically negligible compared to the inferential uncertainty. The proof is based on a factorisation of the saddlepoint likelihood into an exact and approximate term, along with an analysis of the approximation error in the gradient of the log-likelihood. This factorisation also gives insight into alternatives to the saddlepoint approximation, including a new and simpler saddlepoint approximation, for which we derive analogous error bounds. As a corollary of our results, we also obtain the asymptotic size of the MLE error approximation when the saddlepoint approximation is replaced by the normal approximation.

We introduce Stochastic Asymptotical Regularization (SAR) methods for the uncertainty quantification of the stable approximate solution of ill-posed linear-operator equations, which are deterministic models for numerous inverse problems in science and engineering. We prove the regularizing properties of SAR with regard to mean-square convergence. We also show that SAR is an optimal-order regularization method for linear ill-posed problems provided that the terminating time of SAR is chosen according to the smoothness of the solution. This result is proven for both a priori and a posteriori stopping rules under general range-type source conditions. Furthermore, some converse results of SAR are verified. Two iterative schemes are developed for the numerical realization of SAR, and the convergence analyses of these two numerical schemes are also provided. A toy example and a real-world problem of biosensor tomography are studied to show the accuracy and the advantages of SAR: compared with the conventional deterministic regularization approaches for deterministic inverse problems, SAR can provide the uncertainty quantification of the quantity of interest, which can in turn be used to reveal and explicate the hidden information about real-world problems, usually obscured by the incomplete mathematical modeling and the ascendence of complex-structured noise.

Structural matrix-variate observations routinely arise in diverse fields such as multi-layer network analysis and brain image clustering. While data of this type have been extensively investigated with fruitful outcomes being delivered, the fundamental questions like its statistical optimality and computational limit are largely under-explored. In this paper, we propose a low-rank Gaussian mixture model (LrMM) assuming each matrix-valued observation has a planted low-rank structure. Minimax lower bounds for estimating the underlying low-rank matrix are established allowing a whole range of sample sizes and signal strength. Under a minimal condition on signal strength, referred to as the information-theoretical limit or statistical limit, we prove the minimax optimality of a maximum likelihood estimator which, in general, is computationally infeasible. If the signal is stronger than a certain threshold, called the computational limit, we design a computationally fast estimator based on spectral aggregation and demonstrate its minimax optimality. Moreover, when the signal strength is smaller than the computational limit, we provide evidences based on the low-degree likelihood ratio framework to claim that no polynomial-time algorithm can consistently recover the underlying low-rank matrix. Our results reveal multiple phase transitions in the minimax error rates and the statistical-to-computational gap. Numerical experiments confirm our theoretical findings. We further showcase the merit of our spectral aggregation method on the worldwide food trading dataset.

The rapid development of high-throughput technologies has enabled the generation of data from biological or disease processes that span multiple layers, like genomic, proteomic or metabolomic data, and further pertain to multiple sources, like disease subtypes or experimental conditions. In this work, we propose a general statistical framework based on Gaussian graphical models for horizontal (i.e. across conditions or subtypes) and vertical (i.e. across different layers containing data on molecular compartments) integration of information in such datasets. We start with decomposing the multi-layer problem into a series of two-layer problems. For each two-layer problem, we model the outcomes at a node in the lower layer as dependent on those of other nodes in that layer, as well as all nodes in the upper layer. We use a combination of neighborhood selection and group-penalized regression to obtain sparse estimates of all model parameters. Following this, we develop a debiasing technique and asymptotic distributions of inter-layer directed edge weights that utilize already computed neighborhood selection coefficients for nodes in the upper layer. Subsequently, we establish global and simultaneous testing procedures for these edge weights. Performance of the proposed methodology is evaluated on synthetic and real data.

Continuous determinantal point processes (DPPs) are a class of repulsive point processes on $\mathbb{R}^d$ with many statistical applications. Although an explicit expression of their density is known, it is too complicated to be used directly for maximum likelihood estimation. In the stationary case, an approximation using Fourier series has been suggested, but it is limited to rectangular observation windows and no theoretical results support it. In this contribution, we investigate a different way to approximate the likelihood by looking at its asymptotic behaviour when the observation window grows towards $\mathbb{R}^d$. This new approximation is not limited to rectangular windows, is faster to compute than the previous one, does not require any tuning parameter, and some theoretical justifications are provided. It moreover provides an explicit formula for estimating the asymptotic variance of the associated estimator. The performances are assessed in a simulation study on standard parametric models on $\mathbb{R}^d$ and compare favourably to common alternative estimation methods for continuous DPPs.

We derive a posteriori error estimates for a fully discrete finite element approximation of the stochastic Cahn-Hilliard equation. The a posteriori bound is obtained by a splitting of the equation into a linear stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) and a nonlinear random partial differential equation (RPDE). The resulting estimate is robust with respect to the interfacial width parameter and is computable since it involves the discrete principal eigenvalue of a linearized (stochastic) Cahn-Hilliard operator. Furthermore, the estimate is robust with respect to topological changes as well as the intensity of the stochastic noise. We provide numerical simulations to demonstrate the practicability of the proposed adaptive algorithm.

We consider the fixed-budget best arm identification problem in two-armed Gaussian bandits with unknown variances. The tightest lower bound on the complexity and an algorithm whose performance guarantee matches the lower bound have long been open problems when the variances are unknown and when the algorithm is agnostic to the optimal proportion of the arm draws. In this paper, we propose a strategy comprising a sampling rule with randomized sampling (RS) following the estimated target allocation probabilities of arm draws and a recommendation rule using the augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) estimator, which is often used in the causal inference literature. We refer to our strategy as the RS-AIPW strategy. In the theoretical analysis, we first derive a large deviation principle for martingales, which can be used when the second moment converges in mean, and apply it to our proposed strategy. Then, we show that the proposed strategy is asymptotically optimal in the sense that the probability of misidentification achieves the lower bound by Kaufmann et al. (2016) when the sample size becomes infinitely large and the gap between the two arms goes to zero.

We consider the task of learning the parameters of a {\em single} component of a mixture model, for the case when we are given {\em side information} about that component, we call this the "search problem" in mixture models. We would like to solve this with computational and sample complexity lower than solving the overall original problem, where one learns parameters of all components. Our main contributions are the development of a simple but general model for the notion of side information, and a corresponding simple matrix-based algorithm for solving the search problem in this general setting. We then specialize this model and algorithm to four common scenarios: Gaussian mixture models, LDA topic models, subspace clustering, and mixed linear regression. For each one of these we show that if (and only if) the side information is informative, we obtain parameter estimates with greater accuracy, and also improved computation complexity than existing moment based mixture model algorithms (e.g. tensor methods). We also illustrate several natural ways one can obtain such side information, for specific problem instances. Our experiments on real data sets (NY Times, Yelp, BSDS500) further demonstrate the practicality of our algorithms showing significant improvement in runtime and accuracy.