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Although local differential privacy (LDP) protects individual users' data from inference by an untrusted data curator, recent studies show that an attacker can launch a data poisoning attack from the user side to inject carefully-crafted bogus data into the LDP protocols in order to maximally skew the final estimate by the data curator. In this work, we further advance this knowledge by proposing a new fine-grained attack, which allows the attacker to fine-tune and simultaneously manipulate mean and variance estimations that are popular analytical tasks for many real-world applications. To accomplish this goal, the attack leverages the characteristics of LDP to inject fake data into the output domain of the local LDP instance. We call our attack the output poisoning attack (OPA). We observe a security-privacy consistency where a small privacy loss enhances the security of LDP, which contradicts the known security-privacy trade-off from prior work. We further study the consistency and reveal a more holistic view of the threat landscape of data poisoning attacks on LDP. We comprehensively evaluate our attack against a baseline attack that intuitively provides false input to LDP. The experimental results show that OPA outperforms the baseline on three real-world datasets. We also propose a novel defense method that can recover the result accuracy from polluted data collection and offer insight into the secure LDP design.

In most electricity theft detection schemes, consumers' power consumption data is directly input into the detection center. Although it is valid in detecting the theft of consumers, the privacy of all consumers is at risk unless the detection center is assumed to be trusted. In fact, it is impractical. Moreover, existing schemes may result in some security problems, such as the collusion attack due to the presence of a trusted third party, and malicious data tampering caused by the system operator (SO) being attacked. Aiming at the problems above, we propose a blockchain-based privacy-preserving electricity theft detection scheme without a third party. Specifically, the proposed scheme uses an improved functional encryption scheme to enable electricity theft detection and load monitoring while preserving consumers' privacy; distributed storage of consumers' data with blockchain to resolve security problems such as data tampering, etc. Meanwhile, we build a long short-term memory network (LSTM) model to perform higher accuracy for electricity theft detection. The proposed scheme is evaluated in a real environment, and the results show that it is more accurate in electricity theft detection within acceptable communication and computational overhead. Our system analysis demonstrates that the proposed scheme can resist various security attacks and preserve consumers' privacy.

Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models inadequate. Yet even for parametric regression models, approximations such as MCMC typically are needed for posterior inference. This paper introduces a Bayesian modeling and algorithmic framework that enables semiparametric regression analysis for discrete data with Monte Carlo (not MCMC) sampling. The proposed approach pairs a nonparametric marginal model with a latent linear regression model to encourage both flexibility and interpretability, and delivers posterior consistency even under model misspecification. For a parametric or large-sample approximation of this model, we identify a class of conjugate priors with (pseudo) closed-form posteriors. All posterior and predictive distributions are available analytically or via direct Monte Carlo sampling. These tools are broadly useful for linear regression, nonlinear models via basis expansions, and variable selection with discrete data. Simulation studies demonstrate significant advantages in computing, prediction, estimation, and selection relative to existing alternatives. This novel approach is applied successfully to self-reported mental health data that exhibit zero-inflation, overdispersion, boundedness, and heaping.

Federated learning (FL) was originally regarded as a framework for collaborative learning among clients with data privacy protection through a coordinating server. In this paper, we propose a new active membership inference (AMI) attack carried out by a dishonest server in FL. In AMI attacks, the server crafts and embeds malicious parameters into global models to effectively infer whether a target data sample is included in a client's private training data or not. By exploiting the correlation among data features through a non-linear decision boundary, AMI attacks with a certified guarantee of success can achieve severely high success rates under rigorous local differential privacy (LDP) protection; thereby exposing clients' training data to significant privacy risk. Theoretical and experimental results on several benchmark datasets show that adding sufficient privacy-preserving noise to prevent our attack would significantly damage FL's model utility.

Local Differential Privacy (LDP) is now widely adopted in large-scale systems to collect and analyze sensitive data while preserving users' privacy. However, almost all LDP protocols rely on a semi-trust model where users are curious-but-honest, which rarely holds in real-world scenarios. Recent works show poor estimation accuracy of many LDP protocols under malicious threat models. Although a few works have proposed some countermeasures to address these attacks, they all require prior knowledge of either the attacking pattern or the poison value distribution, which is impractical as they can be easily evaded by the attackers. In this paper, we adopt a general opportunistic-and-colluding threat model and propose a multi-group Differential Aggregation Protocol (DAP) to improve the accuracy of mean estimation under LDP. Different from all existing works that detect poison values on individual basis, DAP mitigates the overall impact of poison values on the estimated mean. It relies on a new probing mechanism EMF (i.e., Expectation-Maximization Filter) to estimate features of the attackers. In addition to EMF, DAP also consists of two EMF post-processing procedures (EMF* and CEMF*), and a group-wise mean aggregation scheme to optimize the final estimated mean to achieve the smallest variance. Extensive experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of DAP over state-of-the-art solutions.

Studies involving both randomized experiments as well as observational data typically involve time-to-event outcomes such as time-to-failure, death or onset of an adverse condition. Such outcomes are typically subject to censoring due to loss of follow-up and established statistical practice involves comparing treatment efficacy in terms of hazard ratios between the treated and control groups. In this paper we propose a statistical approach to recovering sparse phenogroups (or subtypes) that demonstrate differential treatment effects as compared to the study population. Our approach involves modelling the data as a mixture while enforcing parameter shrinkage through structured sparsity regularization. We propose a novel inference procedure for the proposed model and demonstrate its efficacy in recovering sparse phenotypes across large landmark real world clinical studies in cardiovascular health.

We present counterfactual situation testing (CST), a causal data mining framework for detecting discrimination in classifiers. CST aims to answer in an actionable and meaningful way the intuitive question "what would have been the model outcome had the individual, or complainant, been of a different protected status?" It extends the legally-grounded situation testing of Thanh et al. (2011) by operationalizing the notion of fairness given the difference using counterfactual reasoning. For any complainant, we find and compare similar protected and non-protected instances in the dataset used by the classifier to construct a control and test group, where a difference between the decision outcomes of the two groups implies potential individual discrimination. Unlike situation testing, which builds both groups around the complainant, we build the test group on the complainant's counterfactual generated using causal knowledge. The counterfactual is intended to reflect how the protected attribute when changed affects the seemingly neutral attributes used by the classifier, which is taken for granted in many frameworks for discrimination. Under CST, we compare similar individuals within each group but dissimilar individuals across both groups due to the possible difference between the complainant and its counterfactual. Evaluating our framework on two classification scenarios, we show that it uncovers a greater number of cases than situation testing, even when the classifier satisfies the counterfactual fairness condition of Kusner et al. (2017).

Recent work on algorithmic fairness has largely focused on the fairness of discrete decisions, or classifications. While such decisions are often based on risk score models, the fairness of the risk models themselves has received considerably less attention. Risk models are of interest for a number of reasons, including the fact that they communicate uncertainty about the potential outcomes to users, thus representing a way to enable meaningful human oversight. Here, we address fairness desiderata for risk score models. We identify the provision of similar epistemic value to different groups as a key desideratum for risk score fairness. Further, we address how to assess the fairness of risk score models quantitatively, including a discussion of metric choices and meaningful statistical comparisons between groups. In this context, we also introduce a novel calibration error metric that is less sample size-biased than previously proposed metrics, enabling meaningful comparisons between groups of different sizes. We illustrate our methodology - which is widely applicable in many other settings - in two case studies, one in recidivism risk prediction, and one in risk of major depressive disorder (MDD) prediction.

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a powerful statistical tool and has been widely applied in medical research. In the ROC curve estimation, a commonly used assumption is that larger the biomarker value, greater severity the disease. In this paper, we mathematically interpret ``greater severity of the disease" as ``larger probability of being diseased". This in turn is equivalent to assume the likelihood ratio ordering of the biomarker between the diseased and healthy individuals. With this assumption, we first propose a Bernstein polynomial method to model the distributions of both samples; we then estimate the distributions by the maximum empirical likelihood principle. The ROC curve estimate and the associated summary statistics are obtained subsequently. Theoretically, we establish the asymptotic consistency of our estimators. Via extensive numerical studies, we compare the performance of our method with competitive methods. The application of our method is illustrated by a real-data example.

Analyzing observational data from multiple sources can be useful for increasing statistical power to detect a treatment effect; however, practical constraints such as privacy considerations may restrict individual-level information sharing across data sets. This paper develops federated methods that only utilize summary-level information from heterogeneous data sets. Our federated methods provide doubly-robust point estimates of treatment effects as well as variance estimates. We derive the asymptotic distributions of our federated estimators, which are shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the corresponding estimators from the combined, individual-level data. We show that to achieve these properties, federated methods should be adjusted based on conditions such as whether models are correctly specified and stable across heterogeneous data sets.