Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This work aims at showing how 1) data-driven, stochastic machine learning approaches provide an affordable yet flexible means to forecast these processes; 2) the associated uncertainty can be properly calibrated with fast ensemble-based approaches. While the methodology introduced and discussed in this work pertains to synoptic scale events, the principle of augmenting incomplete or highly sensitive physical systems with data-driven models to improve predictability is far more general and can be extended to environmental problems of any scale in time or space.
This report examines the effectiveness of Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting in improving the multi-step reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). Inspired by previous studies \cite{Min2022RethinkingWork}, we analyze the impact of three types of CoT prompt perturbations, namely CoT order, CoT values, and CoT operators on the performance of GPT-3 on various tasks. Our findings show that incorrect CoT prompting leads to poor performance on accuracy metrics. Correct values in the CoT is crucial for predicting correct answers. Moreover, incorrect demonstrations, where the CoT operators or the CoT order are wrong, do not affect the performance as drastically when compared to the value based perturbations. This research deepens our understanding of CoT prompting and opens some new questions regarding the capability of LLMs to learn reasoning in context.
From dishwashers to cabinets, humans interact with articulated objects every day, and for a robot to assist in common manipulation tasks, it must learn a representation of articulation. Recent deep learning learning methods can provide powerful vision-based priors on the affordance of articulated objects from previous, possibly simulated, experiences. In contrast, many works estimate articulation by observing the object in motion, requiring the robot to already be interacting with the object. In this work, we propose to use the best of both worlds by introducing an online estimation method that merges vision-based affordance predictions from a neural network with interactive kinematic sensing in an analytical model. Our work has the benefit of using vision to predict an articulation model before touching the object, while also being able to update the model quickly from kinematic sensing during the interaction. In this paper, we implement a full system using shared autonomy for robotic opening of articulated objects, in particular objects in which the articulation is not apparent from vision alone. We implemented our system on a real robot and performed several autonomous closed-loop experiments in which the robot had to open a door with unknown joint while estimating the articulation online. Our system achieved an 80% success rate for autonomous opening of unknown articulated objects.
We introduce RotateIt, a system that enables fingertip-based object rotation along multiple axes by leveraging multimodal sensory inputs. Our system is trained in simulation, where it has access to ground-truth object shapes and physical properties. Then we distill it to operate on realistic yet noisy simulated visuotactile and proprioceptive sensory inputs. These multimodal inputs are fused via a visuotactile transformer, enabling online inference of object shapes and physical properties during deployment. We show significant performance improvements over prior methods and the importance of visual and tactile sensing.
Getting precise aspects of road through segmentation from remote sensing imagery is useful for many real-world applications such as autonomous vehicles, urban development and planning, and achieving sustainable development goals. Roads are only a small part of the image, and their appearance, type, width, elevation, directions, etc. exhibit large variations across geographical areas. Furthermore, due to differences in urbanization styles, planning, and the natural environments; regions along the roads vary significantly. Due to these variations among the train and test domains, the road segmentation algorithms fail to generalize to new geographical locations. Unlike the generic domain alignment scenarios, road segmentation has no scene structure, and generic domain adaptation methods are unable to enforce topological properties like continuity, connectivity, smoothness, etc., thus resulting in degraded domain alignment. In this work, we propose a topology-aware unsupervised domain adaptation approach for road segmentation in remote sensing imagery. Specifically, we predict road skeleton, an auxiliary task to impose the topological constraints. To enforce consistent predictions of road and skeleton, especially in the unlabeled target domain, the conformity loss is defined across the skeleton prediction head and the road-segmentation head. Furthermore, for self-training, we filter out the noisy pseudo-labels by using a connectivity-based pseudo-labels refinement strategy, on both road and skeleton segmentation heads, thus avoiding holes and discontinuities. Extensive experiments on the benchmark datasets show the effectiveness of the proposed approach compared to existing state-of-the-art methods. Specifically, for SpaceNet to DeepGlobe adaptation, the proposed approach outperforms the competing methods by a minimum margin of 6.6%, 6.7%, and 9.8% in IoU, F1-score, and APLS, respectively.
We propose the use of a lower or upper triangular sub-base matrix to replace the identity matrix in the source-check-channel-variable linking protomatrix of a double-protograph low-density parity-check joint-source-channel code (DP-LDPC JSCC). The elements along the diagonal of the proposed lower or upper triangular sub-base matrix are assigned as "1" and the other non-zero elements can take any non-negative integral values. Compared with the traditional DP-LDPC JSCC designs, the new designs show a theoretical channel threshold improvement of up to 0.41 dB and a simulated source symbol error rate improvement of up to 0.5 dB at an error rate of 1e-6.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have received considerable attention on graph-structured data learning for a wide variety of tasks. The well-designed propagation mechanism which has been demonstrated effective is the most fundamental part of GNNs. Although most of GNNs basically follow a message passing manner, litter effort has been made to discover and analyze their essential relations. In this paper, we establish a surprising connection between different propagation mechanisms with a unified optimization problem, showing that despite the proliferation of various GNNs, in fact, their proposed propagation mechanisms are the optimal solution optimizing a feature fitting function over a wide class of graph kernels with a graph regularization term. Our proposed unified optimization framework, summarizing the commonalities between several of the most representative GNNs, not only provides a macroscopic view on surveying the relations between different GNNs, but also further opens up new opportunities for flexibly designing new GNNs. With the proposed framework, we discover that existing works usually utilize naive graph convolutional kernels for feature fitting function, and we further develop two novel objective functions considering adjustable graph kernels showing low-pass or high-pass filtering capabilities respectively. Moreover, we provide the convergence proofs and expressive power comparisons for the proposed models. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets clearly show that the proposed GNNs not only outperform the state-of-the-art methods but also have good ability to alleviate over-smoothing, and further verify the feasibility for designing GNNs with our unified optimization framework.
This work considers the question of how convenient access to copious data impacts our ability to learn causal effects and relations. In what ways is learning causality in the era of big data different from -- or the same as -- the traditional one? To answer this question, this survey provides a comprehensive and structured review of both traditional and frontier methods in learning causality and relations along with the connections between causality and machine learning. This work points out on a case-by-case basis how big data facilitates, complicates, or motivates each approach.
With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.
Recent years have witnessed the enormous success of low-dimensional vector space representations of knowledge graphs to predict missing facts or find erroneous ones. Currently, however, it is not yet well-understood how ontological knowledge, e.g. given as a set of (existential) rules, can be embedded in a principled way. To address this shortcoming, in this paper we introduce a framework based on convex regions, which can faithfully incorporate ontological knowledge into the vector space embedding. Our technical contribution is two-fold. First, we show that some of the most popular existing embedding approaches are not capable of modelling even very simple types of rules. Second, we show that our framework can represent ontologies that are expressed using so-called quasi-chained existential rules in an exact way, such that any set of facts which is induced using that vector space embedding is logically consistent and deductively closed with respect to the input ontology.
Detecting carried objects is one of the requirements for developing systems to reason about activities involving people and objects. We present an approach to detect carried objects from a single video frame with a novel method that incorporates features from multiple scales. Initially, a foreground mask in a video frame is segmented into multi-scale superpixels. Then the human-like regions in the segmented area are identified by matching a set of extracted features from superpixels against learned features in a codebook. A carried object probability map is generated using the complement of the matching probabilities of superpixels to human-like regions and background information. A group of superpixels with high carried object probability and strong edge support is then merged to obtain the shape of the carried object. We applied our method to two challenging datasets, and results show that our method is competitive with or better than the state-of-the-art.