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Most off-policy evaluation methods for contextual bandits have focused on the expected outcome of a policy, which is estimated via methods that at best provide only asymptotic guarantees. However, in many applications, the expectation may not be the best measure of performance as it does not capture the variability of the outcome. In addition, particularly in safety-critical settings, stronger guarantees than asymptotic correctness may be required. To address these limitations, we consider a novel application of conformal prediction to contextual bandits. Given data collected under a behavioral policy, we propose \emph{conformal off-policy prediction} (COPP), which can output reliable predictive intervals for the outcome under a new target policy. We provide theoretical finite-sample guarantees without making any additional assumptions beyond the standard contextual bandit setup, and empirically demonstrate the utility of COPP compared with existing methods on synthetic and real-world data.

Understanding a decision-maker's priorities by observing their behavior is critical for transparency and accountability in decision processes, such as in healthcare. Though conventional approaches to policy learning almost invariably assume stationarity in behavior, this is hardly true in practice: Medical practice is constantly evolving as clinical professionals fine-tune their knowledge over time. For instance, as the medical community's understanding of organ transplantations has progressed over the years, a pertinent question is: How have actual organ allocation policies been evolving? To give an answer, we desire a policy learning method that provides interpretable representations of decision-making, in particular capturing an agent's non-stationary knowledge of the world, as well as operating in an offline manner. First, we model the evolving behavior of decision-makers in terms of contextual bandits, and formalize the problem of Inverse Contextual Bandits (ICB). Second, we propose two concrete algorithms as solutions, learning parametric and nonparametric representations of an agent's behavior. Finally, using both real and simulated data for liver transplantations, we illustrate the applicability and explainability of our method, as well as benchmarking and validating its accuracy.

In experiments that study social phenomena, such as peer influence or herd immunity, the treatment of one unit may influence the outcomes of others. Such "interference between units" violates traditional approaches for causal inference, so that additional assumptions are often imposed to model or limit the underlying social mechanism. For binary outcomes, we propose an approach that does not require such assumptions, allowing for interference that is both unmodeled and strong, with confidence intervals derived using only the randomization of treatment. However, the estimates will have wider confidence intervals and weaker causal implications than those attainable under stronger assumptions. The approach allows for the usage of regression, matching, or weighting, as may best fit the application at hand. Inference is done by bounding the distribution of the estimation error over all possible values of the unknown counterfactual, using an integer program. Examples are shown using using a vaccination trial and two experiments investigating social influence.

Factorization of matrices where the rank of the two factors diverges linearly with their sizes has many applications in diverse areas such as unsupervised representation learning, dictionary learning or sparse coding. We consider a setting where the two factors are generated from known component-wise independent prior distributions, and the statistician observes a (possibly noisy) component-wise function of their matrix product. In the limit where the dimensions of the matrices tend to infinity, but their ratios remain fixed, we expect to be able to derive closed form expressions for the optimal mean squared error on the estimation of the two factors. However, this remains a very involved mathematical and algorithmic problem. A related, but simpler, problem is extensive-rank matrix denoising, where one aims to reconstruct a matrix with extensive but usually small rank from noisy measurements. In this paper, we approach both these problems using high-temperature expansions at fixed order parameters. This allows to clarify how previous attempts at solving these problems failed at finding an asymptotically exact solution. We provide a systematic way to derive the corrections to these existing approximations, taking into account the structure of correlations particular to the problem. Finally, we illustrate our approach in detail on the case of extensive-rank matrix denoising. We compare our results with known optimal rotationally-invariant estimators, and show how exact asymptotic calculations of the minimal error can be performed using extensive-rank matrix integrals.

The feasibility of performing airborne and ground manipulation, perception, and reconnaissance using wheeled rovers, unmanned aerial vehicles, CubeSats, SmallSats and more have been evaluated before. Among all of these solutions, balloon-based systems possess merits that make them extremely attractive, e.g., a simple operation mechanism and endured operation time. However, there are many hurdles to overcome to achieve robust loitering performance in balloon-based applications. We attempt to identify design and control challenges, and propose a novel robotic platform that allows for the application of balloons in the reconnaissance and perception of Mars craters. This work briefly covers our suggested actuation and Model Predictive Control design framework for steering such balloon systems. We propose the coordinated servoing of multiple unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to regulate tension forces in a cable-driven balloon to which an underactuated hanging payload is attached.

The emerging field of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to bring transparency to today's powerful but opaque deep learning models. While local XAI methods explain individual predictions in form of attribution maps, thereby identifying where important features occur (but not providing information about what they represent), global explanation techniques visualize what concepts a model has generally learned to encode. Both types of methods thus only provide partial insights and leave the burden of interpreting the model's reasoning to the user. Only few contemporary techniques aim at combining the principles behind both local and global XAI for obtaining more informative explanations. Those methods, however, are often limited to specific model architectures or impose additional requirements on training regimes or data and label availability, which renders the post-hoc application to arbitrarily pre-trained models practically impossible. In this work we introduce the Concept Relevance Propagation (CRP) approach, which combines the local and global perspectives of XAI and thus allows answering both the "where" and "what" questions for individual predictions, without additional constraints imposed. We further introduce the principle of Relevance Maximization for finding representative examples of encoded concepts based on their usefulness to the model. We thereby lift the dependency on the common practice of Activation Maximization and its limitations. We demonstrate the capabilities of our methods in various settings, showcasing that Concept Relevance Propagation and Relevance Maximization lead to more human interpretable explanations and provide deep insights into the model's representations and reasoning through concept atlases, concept composition analyses, and quantitative investigations of concept subspaces and their role in fine-grained decision making.

The globalization of the electronics supply chain requires effective methods to thwart reverse engineering and IP theft. Logic locking is a promising solution, but there are many open concerns. First, even when applied at a higher level of abstraction, locking may result in significant overhead without improving the security metric. Second, optimizing a security metric is application-dependent and designers must evaluate and compare alternative solutions. We propose a meta-framework to optimize the use of behavioral locking during the high-level synthesis (HLS) of IP cores. Our method operates on chip's specification (before HLS) and it is compatible with all HLS tools, complementing industrial EDA flows. Our meta-framework supports different strategies to explore the design space and to select points to be locked automatically. We evaluated our method on the optimization of differential entropy, achieving better results than random or topological locking: 1) we always identify a valid solution that optimizes the security metric, while topological and random locking can generate unfeasible solutions; 2) we minimize the number of bits used for locking up to more than 90% (requiring smaller tamper-proof memories); 3) we make better use of hardware resources since we obtain similar overheads but with higher security metric.

Our main result shows that when agents' private information about an event are independent conditioning on the event's outcome, then, after an initial announcement, whenever agents have similar beliefs about the outcome, their information is aggregated. That is, there is no false consensus. Our main result has a short proof based on a natural information theoretic framework. A key ingredient of the framework is the equivalence between the sign of the ``interaction information'' and a super/sub-additive property of the value of people's information. This provides an intuitive interpretation and an interesting application of the interaction information, which measures the amount of information shared by three random variables. We illustrate the power of this information theoretic framework by reproving two additional results within it: 1) that agents quickly agree when while announcing beliefs in round robin fashion [Aaronson 2005]; and 2) results from [Chen et al 2010] on when prediction market agents should release information to maximize their payment. We also interpret the information theoretic framework and the above results in prediction markets by proving that the expected reward of revealing information is the conditional mutual information of the information revealed.

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.