It was recently shown that under smoothness conditions, the squared Wasserstein distance between two distributions could be efficiently computed with appealing statistical error upper bounds. However, rather than the distance itself, the object of interest for applications such as generative modeling is the underlying optimal transport map. Hence, computational and statistical guarantees need to be obtained for the estimated maps themselves. In this paper, we propose the first tractable algorithm for which the statistical $L^2$ error on the maps nearly matches the existing minimax lower-bounds for smooth map estimation. Our method is based on solving the semi-dual formulation of optimal transport with an infinite-dimensional sum-of-squares reformulation, and leads to an algorithm which has dimension-free polynomial rates in the number of samples, with potentially exponentially dimension-dependent constants.
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In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for log-spacings of top order statistics. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are investigated analytically and found to be asymptotically unbiased, consistent and normally distributed. Also, the finite sample behaviour of the estimators are studied through a simulations theory. The proposed estimators were found to yield low bias and MSE. In addition, the proposed estimators are illustrated through the estimation of the tail index of the underlying distribution of claims from the insurance industry.
We consider an elliptic linear-quadratic parameter estimation problem with a finite number of parameters. A novel a priori bound for the parameter error is proved and, based on this bound, an adaptive finite element method driven by an a posteriori error estimator is presented. Unlike prior results in the literature, our estimator, which is composed of standard energy error residual estimators for the state equation and suitable co-state problems, reflects the faster convergence of the parameter error compared to the (co)-state variables. We show optimal convergence rates of our method; in particular and unlike prior works, we prove that the estimator decreases with a rate that is the sum of the best approximation rates of the state and co-state variables. Experiments confirm that our method matches the convergence rate of the parameter error.
Non-asymptotic bounds for Gaussian and bootstrap approximation have recently attracted significant interest in high-dimensional statistics. This paper studies Berry-Esseen bounds for such approximations with respect to the multivariate Kolmogorov distance, in the context of a sum of $n$ random vectors that are $p$-dimensional and i.i.d. Up to now, a growing line of work has established bounds with mild logarithmic dependence on $p$. However, the problem of developing corresponding bounds with near $n^{-1/2}$ dependence on $n$ has remained largely unresolved. Within the setting of random vectors that have sub-Gaussian or sub-exponential entries, this paper establishes bounds with near $n^{-1/2}$ dependence, for both Gaussian and bootstrap approximation. In addition, the proofs are considerably distinct from other recent approaches and make use of an "implicit smoothing" operation in the Lindeberg interpolation.
We consider generative adversarial networks (GAN) for estimating parameters in a deep generative model. The data-generating distribution is assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure, making the target distribution singular to the Lebesgue measure. Under this assumption, we obtain convergence rates of a GAN type estimator with respect to the Wasserstein metric. The convergence rate depends only on the noise level, intrinsic dimension and smoothness of the underlying structure. Furthermore, the rate is faster than that obtained by likelihood approaches, which provides insights into why GAN approaches perform better in many real problems. A lower bound of the minimax optimal rate is also investigated.
For real symmetric matrices that are accessible only through matrix vector products, we present Monte Carlo estimators for computing the diagonal elements. Our probabilistic bounds for normwise absolute and relative errors apply to Monte Carlo estimators based on random Rademacher, sparse Rademacher, normalized and unnormalized Gaussian vectors, and to vectors with bounded fourth moments. The novel use of matrix concentration inequalities in our proofs represents a systematic model for future analyses. Our bounds mostly do not depend on the matrix dimension, target different error measures than existing work, and imply that the accuracy of the estimators increases with the diagonal dominance of the matrix. An application to derivative-based global sensitivity metrics corroborates this, as do numerical experiments on synthetic test matrices. We recommend against the use in practice of sparse Rademacher vectors, which are the basis for many randomized sketching and sampling algorithms, because they tend to deliver barely a digit of accuracy even under large sampling amounts.
A new approach to $L_2$-consistent estimation of a general density functional using $k$-nearest neighbor distances is proposed, where the functional under consideration is in the form of the expectation of some function $f$ of the densities at each point. The estimator is designed to be asymptotically unbiased, using the convergence of the normalized volume of a $k$-nearest neighbor ball to a Gamma distribution in the large-sample limit, and naturally involves the inverse Laplace transform of a scaled version of the function $f.$ Some instantiations of the proposed estimator recover existing $k$-nearest neighbor based estimators of Shannon and R\'enyi entropies and Kullback--Leibler and R\'enyi divergences, and discover new consistent estimators for many other functionals such as logarithmic entropies and divergences. The $L_2$-consistency of the proposed estimator is established for a broad class of densities for general functionals, and the convergence rate in mean squared error is established as a function of the sample size for smooth, bounded densities.
The optimal receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, giving the maximum probability of detection as a function of the probability of false alarm, is a key information-theoretic indicator of the difficulty of a binary hypothesis testing problem (BHT). It is well known that the optimal ROC curve for a given BHT, corresponding to the likelihood ratio test, is theoretically determined by the probability distribution of the observed data under each of the two hypotheses. In some cases, these two distributions may be unknown or computationally intractable, but independent samples of the likelihood ratio can be observed. This raises the problem of estimating the optimal ROC for a BHT from such samples. The maximum likelihood estimator of the optimal ROC curve is derived, and it is shown to converge to the true optimal ROC curve in the \levy\ metric, as the number of observations tends to infinity. A classical empirical estimator, based on estimating the two types of error probabilities from two separate sets of samples, is also considered. The maximum likelihood estimator is observed in simulation experiments to be considerably more accurate than the empirical estimator, especially when the number of samples obtained under one of the two hypotheses is small. The area under the maximum likelihood estimator is derived; it is a consistent estimator of the true area under the optimal ROC curve.
Many functions have approximately-known upper and/or lower bounds, potentially aiding the modeling of such functions. In this paper, we introduce Gaussian process models for functions where such bounds are (approximately) known. More specifically, we propose the first use of such bounds to improve Gaussian process (GP) posterior sampling and Bayesian optimization (BO). That is, we transform a GP model satisfying the given bounds, and then sample and weight functions from its posterior. To further exploit these bounds in BO settings, we present bounded entropy search (BES) to select the point gaining the most information about the underlying function, estimated by the GP samples, while satisfying the output constraints. We characterize the sample variance bounds and show that the decision made by BES is explainable. Our proposed approach is conceptually straightforward and can be used as a plug in extension to existing methods for GP posterior sampling and Bayesian optimization.
Optimal transport distances have found many applications in machine learning for their capacity to compare non-parametric probability distributions. Yet their algorithmic complexity generally prevents their direct use on large scale datasets. Among the possible strategies to alleviate this issue, practitioners can rely on computing estimates of these distances over subsets of data, {\em i.e.} minibatches. While computationally appealing, we highlight in this paper some limits of this strategy, arguing it can lead to undesirable smoothing effects. As an alternative, we suggest that the same minibatch strategy coupled with unbalanced optimal transport can yield more robust behavior. We discuss the associated theoretical properties, such as unbiased estimators, existence of gradients and concentration bounds. Our experimental study shows that in challenging problems associated to domain adaptation, the use of unbalanced optimal transport leads to significantly better results, competing with or surpassing recent baselines.
From only positive (P) and unlabeled (U) data, a binary classifier could be trained with PU learning, in which the state of the art is unbiased PU learning. However, if its model is very flexible, empirical risks on training data will go negative, and we will suffer from serious overfitting. In this paper, we propose a non-negative risk estimator for PU learning: when getting minimized, it is more robust against overfitting, and thus we are able to use very flexible models (such as deep neural networks) given limited P data. Moreover, we analyze the bias, consistency, and mean-squared-error reduction of the proposed risk estimator, and bound the estimation error of the resulting empirical risk minimizer. Experiments demonstrate that our risk estimator fixes the overfitting problem of its unbiased counterparts.
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