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Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent uncertainty, such as weather forecasting, medical prognosis, or collision avoidance in autonomous vehicles. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the important difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. The goal of this work is to investigate probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on classification problems where the probabilities are related to model uncertainty. In the case of problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Min-max optimization problems arise in several key machine learning setups, including adversarial learning and generative modeling. In their general form, in absence of convexity/concavity assumptions, finding pure equilibria of the underlying two-player zero-sum game is computationally hard [Daskalakis et al., 2021]. In this work we focus instead in finding mixed equilibria, and consider the associated lifted problem in the space of probability measures. By adding entropic regularization, our main result establishes global convergence towards the global equilibrium by using simultaneous gradient ascent-descent with respect to the Wasserstein metric -- a dynamics that admits efficient particle discretization in high-dimensions, as opposed to entropic mirror descent. We complement this positive result with a related entropy-regularized loss which is not bilinear but still convex-concave in the Wasserstein geometry, and for which simultaneous dynamics do not converge yet timescale separation does. Taken together, these results showcase the benign geometry of bilinear games in the space of measures, enabling particle dynamics with global qualitative convergence guarantees.

Smooth minimax games often proceed by simultaneous or alternating gradient updates. Although algorithms with alternating updates are commonly used in practice, the majority of existing theoretical analyses focus on simultaneous algorithms for convenience of analysis. In this paper, we study alternating gradient descent-ascent (Alt-GDA) in minimax games and show that Alt-GDA is superior to its simultaneous counterpart~(Sim-GDA) in many settings. We prove that Alt-GDA achieves a near-optimal local convergence rate for strongly convex-strongly concave (SCSC) problems while Sim-GDA converges at a much slower rate. To our knowledge, this is the \emph{first} result of any setting showing that Alt-GDA converges faster than Sim-GDA by more than a constant. We further adapt the theory of integral quadratic constraints (IQC) and show that Alt-GDA attains the same rate \emph{globally} for a subclass of SCSC minimax problems. Empirically, we demonstrate that alternating updates speed up GAN training significantly and the use of optimism only helps for simultaneous algorithms.

Stochastic approximation algorithms are iterative procedures which are used to approximate a target value in an environment where the target is unknown and direct observations are corrupted by noise. These algorithms are useful, for instance, for root-finding and function minimization when the target function or model is not directly known. Originally introduced in a 1951 paper by Robbins and Monro, the field of Stochastic approximation has grown enormously and has come to influence application domains from adaptive signal processing to artificial intelligence. As an example, the Stochastic Gradient Descent algorithm which is ubiquitous in various subdomains of Machine Learning is based on stochastic approximation theory. In this paper, we give a formal proof (in the Coq proof assistant) of a general convergence theorem due to Aryeh Dvoretzky, which implies the convergence of important classical methods such as the Robbins-Monro and the Kiefer-Wolfowitz algorithms. In the process, we build a comprehensive Coq library of measure-theoretic probability theory and stochastic processes.

Assume that we observe i.i.d.~points lying close to some unknown $d$-dimensional $\mathcal{C}^k$ submanifold $M$ in a possibly high-dimensional space. We study the problem of reconstructing the probability distribution generating the sample. After remarking that this problem is degenerate for a large class of standard losses ($L_p$, Hellinger, total variation, etc.), we focus on the Wasserstein loss, for which we build an estimator, based on kernel density estimation, whose rate of convergence depends on $d$ and the regularity $s\leq k-1$ of the underlying density, but not on the ambient dimension. In particular, we show that the estimator is minimax and matches previous rates in the literature in the case where the manifold $M$ is a $d$-dimensional cube. The related problem of the estimation of the volume measure of $M$ for the Wasserstein loss is also considered, for which a minimax estimator is exhibited.

Monitoring the evolution of the Covid19 pandemic constitutes a critical step in sanitary policy design. Yet, the assessment of the pandemic intensity within the pandemic period remains a challenging task because of the limited quality of data made available by public health authorities (missing data, outliers and pseudoseasonalities, notably), that calls for cumbersome and ad-hoc preprocessing (denoising) prior to estimation. Recently, the estimation of the reproduction number, a measure of the pandemic intensity, was formulated as an inverse problem, combining data-model fidelity and space-time regularity constraints, solved by nonsmooth convex proximal minimizations. Though promising, that formulation lacks robustness against the limited quality of the Covid19 data and confidence assessment. The present work aims to address both limitations: First, it discusses solutions to produce a robust assessment of the pandemic intensity by accounting for the low quality of the data directly within the inverse problem formulation. Second, exploiting a Bayesian interpretation of the inverse problem formulation, it devises a Monte Carlo sampling strategy, tailored to a nonsmooth log-concave a posteriori distribution, to produce relevant credibility intervalbased estimates for the Covid19 reproduction number. Clinical relevance Applied to daily counts of new infections made publicly available by the Health Authorities for around 200 countries, the proposed procedures permit robust assessments of the time evolution of the Covid19 pandemic intensity, updated automatically and on a daily basis.

Non-homogeneous Poisson processes are used in a wide range of scientific disciplines, ranging from the environmental sciences to the health sciences. Often, the central object of interest in a point process is the underlying intensity function. Here, we present a general model for the intensity function of a non-homogeneous Poisson process using measure transport. The model is built from a flexible bijective mapping that maps from the underlying intensity function of interest to a simpler reference intensity function. We enforce bijectivity by modeling the map as a composition of multiple simple bijective maps, and show that the model exhibits an important approximation property. Estimation of the flexible mapping is accomplished within an optimization framework, wherein computations are efficiently done using recent technological advances in deep learning and a graphics processing unit. Although we find that intensity function estimates obtained with our method are not necessarily superior to those obtained using conventional methods, the modeling representation brings with it other advantages such as facilitated point process simulation and uncertainty quantification. Modeling point processes in higher dimensions is also facilitated using our approach. We illustrate the use of our model on both simulated data, and a real data set containing the locations of seismic events near Fiji since 1964.

We study approximation properties of linear sampling operators in the spaces $L_p$ for $1\le p<\infty$. By means of the Steklov averages, we introduce a new measure of smoothness that simultaneously contains information on the smoothness of a function in $L_p$ and discrete information on the behaviour of a function at sampling points. The new measure of smoothness enables us to improve and extend several classical results of approximation theory to the case of linear sampling operators. In particular, we obtain matching direct and inverse approximation inequalities for sampling operators in $L_p$, find the exact order of decay of the corresponding $L_p$-errors for particular classes of functions, and introduce a special $K$-functional and its realization suitable for studying smoothness properties of sampling operators.

This paper considers the problem of online clustering with bandit feedback. A set of arms (or items) can be partitioned into various groups that are unknown. Within each group, the observations associated to each of the arms follow the same distribution with the same mean vector. At each time step, the agent queries or pulls an arm and obtains an independent observation from the distribution it is associated to. Subsequent pulls depend on previous ones as well as the previously obtained samples. The agent's task is to uncover the underlying partition of the arms with the least number of arm pulls and with a probability of error not exceeding a prescribed constant $\delta$. The problem proposed finds numerous applications from clustering of variants of viruses to online market segmentation. We present an instance-dependent information-theoretic lower bound on the expected sample complexity for this task, and design a computationally efficient and asymptotically optimal algorithm, namely Bandit Online Clustering (BOC). The algorithm includes a novel stopping rule for adaptive sequential testing that circumvents the need to exactly solve any NP-hard weighted clustering problem as its subroutines. We show through extensive simulations on synthetic and real-world datasets that BOC's performance matches the lower bound asymptotically, and significantly outperforms a non-adaptive baseline algorithm.

Optimal transport distances have found many applications in machine learning for their capacity to compare non-parametric probability distributions. Yet their algorithmic complexity generally prevents their direct use on large scale datasets. Among the possible strategies to alleviate this issue, practitioners can rely on computing estimates of these distances over subsets of data, {\em i.e.} minibatches. While computationally appealing, we highlight in this paper some limits of this strategy, arguing it can lead to undesirable smoothing effects. As an alternative, we suggest that the same minibatch strategy coupled with unbalanced optimal transport can yield more robust behavior. We discuss the associated theoretical properties, such as unbiased estimators, existence of gradients and concentration bounds. Our experimental study shows that in challenging problems associated to domain adaptation, the use of unbalanced optimal transport leads to significantly better results, competing with or surpassing recent baselines.