We present a generalized linear structural causal model, coupled with a novel data-adaptive linear regularization, to recover causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from time series. By leveraging a recently developed stochastic monotone Variational Inequality (VI) formulation, we cast the causal discovery problem as a general convex optimization. Furthermore, we develop a non-asymptotic recovery guarantee and quantifiable uncertainty by solving a linear program to establish confidence intervals for a wide range of non-linear monotone link functions. We validate our theoretical results and show the competitive performance of our method via extensive numerical experiments. Most importantly, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in recovering highly interpretable causal DAGs over Sepsis Associated Derangements (SADs) while achieving comparable prediction performance to powerful ``black-box'' models such as XGBoost. Thus, the future adoption of our proposed method to conduct continuous surveillance of high-risk patients by clinicians is much more likely.
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In this short note, I derive the Bell-CHSH inequalities as an elementary result in the present-day theory of statistical causality based on graphical models or Bayes' nets, defined in terms of DAGs (Directed Acyclic Graphs) representing direct statistical causal influences between a number of observed and unobserved random variables. I show how spatio-temporal constraints in loophole-free Bell experiments, and natural classical statistical causality considerations, lead to Bell's notion of local hidden variables, and thence to the CHSH inequalities. The word "local" applies to the way that the chosen settings influence the observed outcomes. The case of contextual setting-dependent hidden variables (thought of as being located in the measurement devices and dependent on the measurement settings) is automatically covered, despite recent claims that Bell's conclusions can be circumvented in this way.
Although understanding and characterizing causal effects have become essential in observational studies, it is challenging when the confounders are high-dimensional. In this article, we develop a general framework $\textit{CausalEGM}$ for estimating causal effects by encoding generative modeling, which can be applied in both binary and continuous treatment settings. Under the potential outcome framework with unconfoundedness, we establish a bidirectional transformation between the high-dimensional confounders space and a low-dimensional latent space where the density is known (e.g., multivariate normal distribution). Through this, CausalEGM simultaneously decouples the dependencies of confounders on both treatment and outcome and maps the confounders to the low-dimensional latent space. By conditioning on the low-dimensional latent features, CausalEGM can estimate the causal effect for each individual or the average causal effect within a population. Our theoretical analysis shows that the excess risk for CausalEGM can be bounded through empirical process theory. Under an assumption on encoder-decoder networks, the consistency of the estimate can be guaranteed. In a series of experiments, CausalEGM demonstrates superior performance over existing methods for both binary and continuous treatments. Specifically, we find CausalEGM to be substantially more powerful than competing methods in the presence of large sample sizes and high dimensional confounders. The software of CausalEGM is freely available at //github.com/SUwonglab/CausalEGM.
Despite considerable recent progress in Visual Question Answering (VQA) models, inconsistent or contradictory answers continue to cast doubt on their true reasoning capabilities. However, most proposed methods use indirect strategies or strong assumptions on pairs of questions and answers to enforce model consistency. Instead, we propose a novel strategy intended to improve model performance by directly reducing logical inconsistencies. To do this, we introduce a new consistency loss term that can be used by a wide range of the VQA models and which relies on knowing the logical relation between pairs of questions and answers. While such information is typically not available in VQA datasets, we propose to infer these logical relations using a dedicated language model and use these in our proposed consistency loss function. We conduct extensive experiments on the VQA Introspect and DME datasets and show that our method brings improvements to state-of-the-art VQA models, while being robust across different architectures and settings.
Using generated data to improve the performance of downstream discriminative models has recently gained popularity due to the great development of pre-trained language models. In most previous studies, generative models and discriminative models are trained separately and thus could not adapt to any changes in each other. As a result, the generated samples can easily deviate from the real data distribution, while the improvement of the discriminative model quickly reaches saturation. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) train generative models via an adversarial process with discriminative models to achieve joint training. However, the training of standard GANs is notoriously unstable and often falls short of convergence. In this paper, to address these issues, we propose a $\textit{self-consistent learning}$ framework, in which a discriminator and a generator are cooperatively trained in a closed-loop form. The discriminator and the generator enhance each other during multiple rounds of alternating training until a scoring consensus is reached. This framework proves to be easy to train and free from instabilities such as mode collapse and non-convergence. Extensive experiments on sentence semantic matching demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework: the discriminator achieves 10+ AP of improvement on the zero-shot setting and new state-of-the-art performance on the full-data setting.
We consider the problem of discovering $K$ related Gaussian directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where the involved graph structures share a consistent causal order and sparse unions of supports. Under the multi-task learning setting, we propose a $l_1/l_2$-regularized maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for learning $K$ linear structural equation models. We theoretically show that the joint estimator, by leveraging data across related tasks, can achieve a better sample complexity for recovering the causal order (or topological order) than separate estimations. Moreover, the joint estimator is able to recover non-identifiable DAGs, by estimating them together with some identifiable DAGs. Lastly, our analysis also shows the consistency of union support recovery of the structures. To allow practical implementation, we design a continuous optimization problem whose optimizer is the same as the joint estimator and can be approximated efficiently by an iterative algorithm. We validate the theoretical analysis and the effectiveness of the joint estimator in experiments.
Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.
Learning disentanglement aims at finding a low dimensional representation which consists of multiple explanatory and generative factors of the observational data. The framework of variational autoencoder (VAE) is commonly used to disentangle independent factors from observations. However, in real scenarios, factors with semantics are not necessarily independent. Instead, there might be an underlying causal structure which renders these factors dependent. We thus propose a new VAE based framework named CausalVAE, which includes a Causal Layer to transform independent exogenous factors into causal endogenous ones that correspond to causally related concepts in data. We further analyze the model identifiabitily, showing that the proposed model learned from observations recovers the true one up to a certain degree. Experiments are conducted on various datasets, including synthetic and real word benchmark CelebA. Results show that the causal representations learned by CausalVAE are semantically interpretable, and their causal relationship as a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is identified with good accuracy. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the proposed CausalVAE model is able to generate counterfactual data through "do-operation" to the causal factors.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
In this paper, we propose a one-stage online clustering method called Contrastive Clustering (CC) which explicitly performs the instance- and cluster-level contrastive learning. To be specific, for a given dataset, the positive and negative instance pairs are constructed through data augmentations and then projected into a feature space. Therein, the instance- and cluster-level contrastive learning are respectively conducted in the row and column space by maximizing the similarities of positive pairs while minimizing those of negative ones. Our key observation is that the rows of the feature matrix could be regarded as soft labels of instances, and accordingly the columns could be further regarded as cluster representations. By simultaneously optimizing the instance- and cluster-level contrastive loss, the model jointly learns representations and cluster assignments in an end-to-end manner. Extensive experimental results show that CC remarkably outperforms 17 competitive clustering methods on six challenging image benchmarks. In particular, CC achieves an NMI of 0.705 (0.431) on the CIFAR-10 (CIFAR-100) dataset, which is an up to 19\% (39\%) performance improvement compared with the best baseline.
Attributed graph clustering is challenging as it requires joint modelling of graph structures and node attributes. Recent progress on graph convolutional networks has proved that graph convolution is effective in combining structural and content information, and several recent methods based on it have achieved promising clustering performance on some real attributed networks. However, there is limited understanding of how graph convolution affects clustering performance and how to properly use it to optimize performance for different graphs. Existing methods essentially use graph convolution of a fixed and low order that only takes into account neighbours within a few hops of each node, which underutilizes node relations and ignores the diversity of graphs. In this paper, we propose an adaptive graph convolution method for attributed graph clustering that exploits high-order graph convolution to capture global cluster structure and adaptively selects the appropriate order for different graphs. We establish the validity of our method by theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on benchmark datasets. Empirical results show that our method compares favourably with state-of-the-art methods.
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