In extreme value theory and other related risk analysis fields, probability weighted moments (PWM) have been frequently used to estimate the parameters of classical extreme value distributions. This method-of-moment technique can be applied when second moments are finite, a reasonable assumption in many environmental domains like climatological and hydrological studies. Three advantages of PWM estimators can be put forward: their simple interpretations, their rapid numerical implementation and their close connection to the well-studied class of U-statistics. Concerning the later, this connection leads to precise asymptotic properties, but non asymptotic bounds have been lacking when off-the-shelf techniques (Chernoff method) cannot be applied, as exponential moment assumptions become unrealistic in many extreme value settings. In addition, large values analysis is not immune to the undesirable effect of outliers, for example, defective readings in satellite measurements or possible anomalies in climate model runs. Recently, the treatment of outliers has sparked some interest in extreme value theory, but results about finite sample bounds in a robust extreme value theory context are yet to be found, in particular for PWMs or tail index estimators. In this work, we propose a new class of robust PWM estimators, inspired by the median-of-means framework of Devroye et al. (2016). This class of robust estimators is shown to satisfy a sub-Gaussian inequality when the assumption of finite second moments holds. Such non asymptotic bounds are also derived under the general contamination model. Our main proposition confirms theoretically a trade-off between efficiency and robustness. Our simulation study indicates that, while classical estimators of PWMs can be highly sensitive to outliers.
相關內容
For terminal value problems of fractional differential equations of order $\alpha \in (0,1)$ that use Caputo derivatives, shooting methods are a well developed and investigated approach. Based on recently established analytic properties of such problems, we develop a new technique to select the required initial values that solves such shooting problems quickly and accurately. Numerical experiments indicate that this new proportional secting technique converges very quickly and accurately to the solution. Run time measurements indicate a speedup factor of between 4 and 10 when compared to the standard bisection method.
Temporal irreversibility, often referred to as the arrow of time, is a fundamental concept in statistical mechanics. Markers of irreversibility also provide a powerful characterisation of information processing in biological systems. However, current approaches tend to describe temporal irreversibility in terms of a single scalar quantity, without disentangling the underlying dynamics that contribute to irreversibility. Here we propose a broadly applicable information-theoretic framework to characterise the arrow of time in multivariate time series, which yields qualitatively different types of irreversible information dynamics. This multidimensional characterisation reveals previously unreported high-order modes of irreversibility, and establishes a formal connection between recent heuristic markers of temporal irreversibility and metrics of information processing. We demonstrate the prevalence of high-order irreversibility in the hyperactive regime of a biophysical model of brain dynamics, showing that our framework is both theoretically principled and empirically useful. This work challenges the view of the arrow of time as a monolithic entity, enhancing both our theoretical understanding of irreversibility and our ability to detect it in practical applications.
Partial differential equations (PDEs) with uncertain or random inputs have been considered in many studies of uncertainty quantification. In forward uncertainty quantification, one is interested in analyzing the stochastic response of the PDE subject to input uncertainty, which usually involves solving high-dimensional integrals of the PDE output over a sequence of stochastic variables. In practical computations, one typically needs to discretize the problem in several ways: approximating an infinite-dimensional input random field with a finite-dimensional random field, spatial discretization of the PDE using, e.g., finite elements, and approximating high-dimensional integrals using cubatures such as quasi-Monte Carlo methods. In this paper, we focus on the error resulting from dimension truncation of an input random field. We show how Taylor series can be used to derive theoretical dimension truncation rates for a wide class of problems and we provide a simple checklist of conditions that a parametric mathematical model needs to satisfy in order for our dimension truncation error bound to hold. Some of the novel features of our approach include that our results are applicable to non-affine parametric operator equations, dimensionally-truncated conforming finite element discretized solutions of parametric PDEs, and even compositions of PDE solutions with smooth nonlinear quantities of interest. As a specific application of our method, we derive an improved dimension truncation error bound for elliptic PDEs with lognormally parameterized diffusion coefficients. Numerical examples support our theoretical findings.
We describe a novel algorithm for solving general parametric (nonlinear) eigenvalue problems. Our method has two steps: first, high-accuracy solutions of non-parametric versions of the problem are gathered at some values of the parameters; these are then combined to obtain global approximations of the parametric eigenvalues. To gather the non-parametric data, we use non-intrusive contour-integration-based methods, which, however, cannot track eigenvalues that migrate into/out of the contour as the parameter changes. Special strategies are described for performing the combination-over-parameter step despite having only partial information on such "migrating" eigenvalues. Moreover, we dedicate a special focus to the approximation of eigenvalues that undergo bifurcations. Finally, we propose an adaptive strategy that allows one to effectively apply our method even without any a priori information on the behavior of the sought-after eigenvalues. Numerical tests are performed, showing that our algorithm can achieve remarkably high approximation accuracy.
The hazard function represents one of the main quantities of interest in the analysis of survival data. We propose a general approach for modelling the dynamics of the hazard function using systems of autonomous ordinary differential equations (ODEs). This modelling approach can be used to provide qualitative and quantitative analyses of the evolution of the hazard function over time. Our proposal capitalises on the extensive literature of ODEs which, in particular, allow for establishing basic rules or laws on the dynamics of the hazard function via the use of autonomous ODEs. We show how to implement the proposed modelling framework in cases where there is an analytic solution to the system of ODEs or where an ODE solver is required to obtain a numerical solution. We focus on the use of a Bayesian modelling approach, but the proposed methodology can also be coupled with maximum likelihood estimation. A simulation study is presented to illustrate the performance of these models and the interplay of sample size and censoring. Two case studies using real data are presented to illustrate the use of the proposed approach and to highlight the interpretability of the corresponding models. We conclude with a discussion on potential extensions of our work and strategies to include covariates into our framework.
This work puts forth low-complexity Riemannian subspace descent algorithms for the minimization of functions over the symmetric positive definite (SPD) manifold. Different from the existing Riemannian gradient descent variants, the proposed approach utilizes carefully chosen subspaces that allow the update to be written as a product of the Cholesky factor of the iterate and a sparse matrix. The resulting updates avoid the costly matrix operations like matrix exponentiation and dense matrix multiplication, which are generally required in almost all other Riemannian optimization algorithms on SPD manifold. We further identify a broad class of functions, arising in diverse applications, such as kernel matrix learning, covariance estimation of Gaussian distributions, maximum likelihood parameter estimation of elliptically contoured distributions, and parameter estimation in Gaussian mixture model problems, over which the Riemannian gradients can be calculated efficiently. The proposed uni-directional and multi-directional Riemannian subspace descent variants incur per-iteration complexities of $\mathcal{O}(n)$ and $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ respectively, as compared to the $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$ or higher complexity incurred by all existing Riemannian gradient descent variants. The superior runtime and low per-iteration complexity of the proposed algorithms is also demonstrated via numerical tests on large-scale covariance estimation problems.
A variant of the standard notion of branching bisimilarity for processes with discrete relative timing is proposed which is coarser than the standard notion. Using a version of ACP (Algebra of Communicating Processes) with abstraction for processes with discrete relative timing, it is shown that the proposed variant allows of both the functional correctness and the performance properties of the PAR (Positive Acknowledgement with Retransmission) protocol to be analyzed. In the version of ACP concerned, the difference between the standard notion of branching bisimilarity and its proposed variant is characterized by a single axiom schema.
Compared to widely used likelihood-based approaches, the minimum contrast (MC) method is a computationally efficient method for estimation and inference of parametric stationary point processes. This advantage becomes more pronounced when analyzing complex point process models, such as multivariate log-Gaussian Cox processes (LGCP). Despite its practical advantages, there is very little work on the MC method for multivariate point processes. The aim of this article is to introduce a new MC method for parametric multivariate stationary spatial point processes. A contrast function is calculated based on the trace of the power of the difference between the conjectured $K$-function matrix and its nonparametric unbiased edge-corrected estimator. Under standard assumptions, the asymptotic normality of the MC estimator of the model parameters is derived. The performance of the proposed method is illustrated with bivariate LGCP simulations and a real data analysis of a bivariate point pattern of the 2014 terrorist attacks in Nigeria.
Stochastic inversion problems are typically encountered when it is wanted to quantify the uncertainty affecting the inputs of computer models. They consist in estimating input distributions from noisy, observable outputs, and such problems are increasingly examined in Bayesian contexts where the targeted inputs are affected by stochastic uncertainties. In this regard, a stochastic input can be qualified as meaningful if it explains most of the output uncertainty. While such inverse problems are characterized by identifiability conditions, constraints of "signal to noise", that can formalize this meaningfulness, should be accounted for within the definition of the model, prior to inference. This article investigates the possibility of forcing a solution to be meaningful in the context of parametric uncertainty quantification, through the tools of global sensitivity analysis and information theory (variance, entropy, Fisher information). Such forcings have mainly the nature of constraints placed on the input covariance, and can be made explicit by considering linear or linearizable models. Simulated experiments indicate that, when injected into the modeling process, these constraints can limit the influence of measurement or process noise on the estimation of the input distribution, and let hope for future extensions in a full non-linear framework, for example through the use of linear Gaussian mixtures.
Sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) is a popular tool for dimensionality reduction in high-dimensional data. However, there is still a lack of theoretically justified Bayesian SPCA methods that can scale well computationally. One of the major challenges in Bayesian SPCA is selecting an appropriate prior for the loadings matrix, considering that principal components are mutually orthogonal. We propose a novel parameter-expanded coordinate ascent variational inference (PX-CAVI) algorithm. This algorithm utilizes a spike and slab prior, which incorporates parameter expansion to cope with the orthogonality constraint. Besides comparing to two popular SPCA approaches, we introduce the PX-EM algorithm as an EM analogue to the PX-CAVI algorithm for comparison. Through extensive numerical simulations, we demonstrate that the PX-CAVI algorithm outperforms these SPCA approaches, showcasing its superiority in terms of performance. We study the posterior contraction rate of the variational posterior, providing a novel contribution to the existing literature. The PX-CAVI algorithm is then applied to study a lung cancer gene expression dataset. The R package VBsparsePCA with an implementation of the algorithm is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191