Environmental data science for spatial extremes has traditionally relied heavily on max-stable processes. Even though the popularity of these models has perhaps peaked with statisticians, they are still perceived and considered as the `state-of-the-art' in many applied fields. However, while the asymptotic theory supporting the use of max-stable processes is mathematically rigorous and comprehensive, we think that it has also been overused, if not misused, in environmental applications, to the detriment of more purposeful and meticulously validated models. In this paper, we review the main limitations of max-stable process models, and strongly argue against their systematic use in environmental studies. Alternative solutions based on more flexible frameworks using the exceedances of variables above appropriately chosen high thresholds are discussed, and an outlook on future research is given, highlighting recommendations moving forward and the opportunities offered by hybridizing machine learning with extreme-value statistics.
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Matrix decompositions are ubiquitous in machine learning, including applications in dimensionality reduction, data compression and deep learning algorithms. Typical solutions for matrix decompositions have polynomial complexity which significantly increases their computational cost and time. In this work, we leverage efficient processing operations that can be run in parallel on modern Graphical Processing Units (GPUs), predominant computing architecture used e.g. in deep learning, to reduce the computational burden of computing matrix decompositions. More specifically, we reformulate the randomized decomposition problem to incorporate fast matrix multiplication operations (BLAS-3) as building blocks. We show that this formulation, combined with fast random number generators, allows to fully exploit the potential of parallel processing implemented in GPUs. Our extensive evaluation confirms the superiority of this approach over the competing methods and we release the results of this research as a part of the official CUDA implementation (//docs.nvidia.com/cuda/cusolver/index.html).
Signed graphs are an emergent way of representing data in a variety of contexts were conflicting interactions exist. These include data from biological, ecological, and social systems. Here we propose the concept of communicability geometry for signed graphs, proving that metrics in this space, such as the communicability distance and angles, are Euclidean and spherical. We then apply these metrics to solve several problems in data analysis of signed graphs in a unified way. They include the partitioning of signed graphs, dimensionality reduction, finding hierarchies of alliances in signed networks as well as the quantification of the degree of polarization between the existing factions in systems represented by this type of graphs.
We present HiRA-Pro, a novel procedure to align, at high spatio-temporal resolutions, multimodal signals from real-world processes and systems that exhibit diverse transient, nonlinear stochastic dynamics, such as manufacturing machines. It is based on discerning and synchronizing the process signatures of salient kinematic and dynamic events in these disparate signals. HiRA-Pro addresses the challenge of aligning data with sub-millisecond phenomena, where traditional timestamp, external trigger, or clock-based alignment methods fall short. The effectiveness of HiRA-Pro is demonstrated in a smart manufacturing context, where it aligns data from 13+ channels acquired during 3D-printing and milling operations on an Optomec-LENS MTS 500 hybrid machine. The aligned data is then voxelized to generate 0.25 second aligned data chunks that correspond to physical voxels on the produced part. The superiority of HiRA-Pro is further showcased through case studies in additive manufacturing, demonstrating improved machine learning-based predictive performance due to precise multimodal data alignment. Specifically, testing classification accuracies improved by almost 35% with the application of HiRA-Pro, even with limited data, allowing for precise localization of artifacts. The paper also provides a comprehensive discussion on the proposed method, its applications, and comparative qualitative analysis with a few other alignment methods. HiRA-Pro achieves temporal-spatial resolutions of 10-1000 us and 100 um in order to generate datasets that register with physical voxels on the 3D-printed and milled part. These resolutions are at least an order of magnitude finer than the existing alignment methods that employ individual timestamps, statistical correlations, or common clocks, which achieve precision of hundreds of milliseconds.
Maximum entropy (Maxent) models are a class of statistical models that use the maximum entropy principle to estimate probability distributions from data. Due to the size of modern data sets, Maxent models need efficient optimization algorithms to scale well for big data applications. State-of-the-art algorithms for Maxent models, however, were not originally designed to handle big data sets; these algorithms either rely on technical devices that may yield unreliable numerical results, scale poorly, or require smoothness assumptions that many practical Maxent models lack. In this paper, we present novel optimization algorithms that overcome the shortcomings of state-of-the-art algorithms for training large-scale, non-smooth Maxent models. Our proposed first-order algorithms leverage the Kullback-Leibler divergence to train large-scale and non-smooth Maxent models efficiently. For Maxent models with discrete probability distribution of $n$ elements built from samples, each containing $m$ features, the stepsize parameters estimation and iterations in our algorithms scale on the order of $O(mn)$ operations and can be trivially parallelized. Moreover, the strong $\ell_{1}$ convexity of the Kullback--Leibler divergence allows for larger stepsize parameters, thereby speeding up the convergence rate of our algorithms. To illustrate the efficiency of our novel algorithms, we consider the problem of estimating probabilities of fire occurrences as a function of ecological features in the Western US MTBS-Interagency wildfire data set. Our numerical results show that our algorithms outperform the state of the arts by one order of magnitude and yield results that agree with physical models of wildfire occurrence and previous statistical analyses of wildfire drivers.
In decision-making, maxitive functions are used for worst-case and best-case evaluations. Maxitivity gives rise to a rich structure that is well-studied in the context of the pointwise order. In this article, we investigate maxitivity with respect to general preorders and provide a representation theorem for such functionals. The results are illustrated for different stochastic orders in the literature, including the usual stochastic order, the increasing convex/concave order, and the dispersive order.
Charts, figures, and text derived from data play an important role in decision making, from data-driven policy development to day-to-day choices informed by online articles. Making sense of, or fact-checking, outputs means understanding how they relate to the underlying data. Even for domain experts with access to the source code and data sets, this poses a significant challenge. In this paper we introduce a new program analysis framework which supports interactive exploration of fine-grained I/O relationships directly through computed outputs, making use of dynamic dependence graphs. Our main contribution is a novel notion in data provenance which we call related inputs, a relation of mutual relevance or "cognacy" which arises between inputs when they contribute to common features of the output. Queries of this form allow readers to ask questions like "What outputs use this data element, and what other data elements are used along with it?". We show how Jonsson and Tarski's concept of conjugate operators on Boolean algebras appropriately characterises the notion of cognacy in a dependence graph, and give a procedure for computing related inputs over such a graph.
A preference-based subjective evaluation is a key method for evaluating generative media reliably. However, its huge combinations of pairs prohibit it from being applied to large-scale evaluation using crowdsourcing. To address this issue, we propose an automatic optimization method for preference-based subjective evaluation in terms of pair combination selections and allocation of evaluation volumes with online learning in a crowdsourcing environment. We use a preference-based online learning method based on a sorting algorithm to identify the total order of evaluation targets with minimum sample volumes. Our online learning algorithm supports parallel and asynchronous execution under fixed-budget conditions required for crowdsourcing. Our experiment on preference-based subjective evaluation of synthetic speech shows that our method successfully optimizes the test by reducing pair combinations from 351 to 83 and allocating optimal evaluation volumes for each pair ranging from 30 to 663 without compromising evaluation accuracies and wasting budget allocations.
This article is concerned with the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for approximating expectations of some functions of the solution to the Heston 3/2-model from mathematical finance, which takes values in $(0, \infty)$ and possesses superlinearly growing drift and diffusion coefficients. To discretize the SDE model, a new Milstein-type scheme is proposed to produce independent sample paths. The proposed scheme can be explicitly solved and is positivity-preserving unconditionally, i.e., for any time step-size $h>0$. This positivity-preserving property for large discretization time steps is particularly desirable in the MLMC setting. Furthermore, a mean-square convergence rate of order one is proved in the non-globally Lipschitz regime, which is not trivial, as the diffusion coefficient grows super-linearly. The obtained order-one convergence in turn promises the desired relevant variance of the multilevel estimator and justifies the optimal complexity $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-2})$ for the MLMC approach, where $\epsilon > 0$ is the required target accuracy. Numerical experiments are finally reported to confirm the theoretical findings.
In the past five years, the use of generative and foundational AI systems has greatly improved the decoding of brain activity. Visual perception, in particular, can now be decoded from functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) with remarkable fidelity. This neuroimaging technique, however, suffers from a limited temporal resolution ($\approx$0.5 Hz) and thus fundamentally constrains its real-time usage. Here, we propose an alternative approach based on magnetoencephalography (MEG), a neuroimaging device capable of measuring brain activity with high temporal resolution ($\approx$5,000 Hz). For this, we develop an MEG decoding model trained with both contrastive and regression objectives and consisting of three modules: i) pretrained embeddings obtained from the image, ii) an MEG module trained end-to-end and iii) a pretrained image generator. Our results are threefold: Firstly, our MEG decoder shows a 7X improvement of image-retrieval over classic linear decoders. Second, late brain responses to images are best decoded with DINOv2, a recent foundational image model. Third, image retrievals and generations both suggest that high-level visual features can be decoded from MEG signals, although the same approach applied to 7T fMRI also recovers better low-level features. Overall, these results, while preliminary, provide an important step towards the decoding -- in real-time -- of the visual processes continuously unfolding within the human brain.
In many application settings, the data have missing entries which make analysis challenging. An abundant literature addresses missing values in an inferential framework: estimating parameters and their variance from incomplete tables. Here, we consider supervised-learning settings: predicting a target when missing values appear in both training and testing data. We show the consistency of two approaches in prediction. A striking result is that the widely-used method of imputing with a constant, such as the mean prior to learning is consistent when missing values are not informative. This contrasts with inferential settings where mean imputation is pointed at for distorting the distribution of the data. That such a simple approach can be consistent is important in practice. We also show that a predictor suited for complete observations can predict optimally on incomplete data,through multiple imputation.Finally, to compare imputation with learning directly with a model that accounts for missing values, we analyze further decision trees. These can naturally tackle empirical risk minimization with missing values, due to their ability to handle the half-discrete nature of incomplete variables. After comparing theoretically and empirically different missing values strategies in trees, we recommend using the "missing incorporated in attribute" method as it can handle both non-informative and informative missing values.
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