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Estimating the ratio of two probability densities from finitely many observations of the densities is a central problem in machine learning and statistics with applications in two-sample testing, divergence estimation, generative modeling, covariate shift adaptation, conditional density estimation, and novelty detection. In this work, we analyze a large class of density ratio estimation methods that minimize a regularized Bregman divergence between the true density ratio and a model in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We derive new finite-sample error bounds, and we propose a Lepskii type parameter choice principle that minimizes the bounds without knowledge of the regularity of the density ratio. In the special case of quadratic loss, our method adaptively achieves a minimax optimal error rate. A numerical illustration is provided.

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自適應學習,也被稱為自適應教學,是使用計算機算法來協調與學習者的互動,并提供定制學習資源和學習活動來解決每個學習者的獨特需求的教育方法。在專業的學習情境,個人可以“試驗出”一些訓練方式,以確保教學內容的更新。根據學生的學習需要,計算機生成適應其特點的教育材料,包括他們對問題的回答和完成的任務和經驗。該技術涵蓋了各個研究領域和它們的衍生,包括計算機科學、人工智能、心理測驗、教育學、心理學和腦科學。

A rigidity circuit (in 2D) is a minimal dependent set in the rigidity matroid, i.e. a minimal graph supporting a non-trivial stress in any generic placement of its vertices in $\mathbb R^2$. Any rigidity circuit on $n\geq 5$ vertices can be obtained from rigidity circuits on a fewer number of vertices by applying the combinatorial resultant (CR) operation. The inverse operation is called a combinatorial resultant decomposition (CR-decomp). Any rigidity circuit on $n\geq 5$ vertices can be successively decomposed into smaller circuits, until the complete graphs $K_4$ are reached. This sequence of CR-decomps has the structure of a rooted binary tree called the combinatorial resultant tree (CR-tree). A CR-tree encodes an elimination strategy for computing circuit polynomials via Sylvester resultants. Different CR-trees lead to elimination strategies that can vary greatly in time and memory consumption. It is an open problem to establish criteria for optimal CR-trees, or at least to characterize those CR-trees that lead to good elimination strategies. In [12] we presented an algorithm for enumerating CR-trees where we give the algorithms for decomposing 3-connected rigidity circuits in polynomial time. In this paper we focus on those circuits that are not 3-connected, which we simply call 2-connected. In order to enumerate CR-decomps of 2-connected circuits $G$, a brute force exp-time search has to be performed among the subgraphs induced by the subsets of $V(G)$. This exp-time bottleneck is not present in the 3-connected case. In this paper we will argue that we do not have to account for all possible CR-decomps of 2-connected rigidity circuits to find a good elimination strategy; we only have to account for those CR-decomps that are a 2-split, all of which can be enumerated in polynomial time. We present algorithms and computational evidence in support of this heuristic.

We make two contributions to the Isolation Forest method for anomaly and outlier detection. The first contribution is an information-theoretically motivated generalisation of the score function that is used to aggregate the scores across random tree estimators. This generalisation allows one to take into account not just the ensemble average across trees but instead the whole distribution. The second contribution is an alternative scoring function at the level of the individual tree estimator, in which we replace the depth-based scoring of the Isolation Forest with one based on hyper-volumes associated to an isolation tree's leaf nodes. We motivate the use of both of these methods on generated data and also evaluate them on 34 datasets from the recent and exhaustive ``ADBench'' benchmark, finding significant improvement over the standard isolation forest for both variants on some datasets and improvement on average across all datasets for one of the two variants. The code to reproduce our results is made available as part of the submission.

Unstructured data are a promising new source of information that insurance companies may use to understand their risk portfolio better and improve the customer experience. However, these novel data sources are difficult to incorporate into existing ratemaking frameworks due to the size and format of the unstructured data. In this paper, we propose a framework to use street view imagery within a generalized linear model. To do so, we use representation learning to extract an embedding vector containing useful information from the image. This embedding is dense and low-dimensional, making it appropriate to use within existing ratemaking models. We find that there is useful information included in street view imagery to predict the frequency of claims for certain types of perils. This model can be used as-is in a ratemaking framework but also opens the door to future empirical research on attempting to extract the causal effect from images that lead to increased or decreased predicted claim frequencies. Throughout, we discuss the practical difficulties (technical and social) of using this type of data for insurance pricing.

Symmetry is a unifying concept in physics. In quantum information and beyond, it is known that quantum states possessing symmetry are not useful for certain information-processing tasks. For example, states that commute with a Hamiltonian realizing a time evolution are not useful for timekeeping during that evolution, and bipartite states that are highly extendible are not strongly entangled and thus not useful for basic tasks like teleportation. Motivated by this perspective, this paper details several quantum algorithms that test the symmetry of quantum states and channels. For the case of testing Bose symmetry of a state, we show that there is a simple and efficient quantum algorithm, while the tests for other kinds of symmetry rely on the aid of a quantum prover. We prove that the acceptance probability of each algorithm is equal to the maximum symmetric fidelity of the state being tested, thus giving a firm operational meaning to these latter resource quantifiers. Special cases of the algorithms test for incoherence or separability of quantum states. We evaluate the performance of these algorithms on choice examples by using the variational approach to quantum algorithms, replacing the quantum prover with a parameterized circuit. We demonstrate this approach for numerous examples using the IBM quantum noiseless and noisy simulators, and we observe that the algorithms perform well in the noiseless case and exhibit noise resilience in the noisy case. We also show that the maximum symmetric fidelities can be calculated by semi-definite programs, which is useful for benchmarking the performance of these algorithms for sufficiently small examples. Finally, we establish various generalizations of the resource theory of asymmetry, with the upshot being that the acceptance probabilities of the algorithms are resource monotones and thus well motivated from the resource-theoretic perspective.

Expecting intelligent machines to efficiently work in real world requires a new method to understand unstructured information in unknown environments with good accuracy, scalability and generalization, like human. Here, a memristive neural computing based perceptual signal differential processing and learning method for intelligent machines is presented, via extracting main features of environmental information and applying associated encoded stimuli to memristors, we successfully obtain human-like ability in processing unstructured environmental information, such as amplification (>720%) and adaptation (<50%) of mechanical stimuli. The method also exhibits good scalability and generalization, validated in two typical applications of intelligent machines: object grasping and autonomous driving. In the former, a robot hand experimentally realizes safe and stable grasping, through learning unknown object features (e.g., sharp corner and smooth surface) with a single memristor in 1 ms. In the latter, the decision-making information of 10 unstructured environments in autonomous driving (e.g., overtaking cars, pedestrians) are accurately (94%) extracted with a 40x25 memristor array. By mimicking the intrinsic nature of human low-level perception mechanisms in electronic memristive neural circuits, the proposed method is adaptable to diverse sensing technologies, helping intelligent machines to generate smart high-level decisions in real world.

The accurate representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is crucial for reliable projections of the ecological and socioeconomic impacts in response to anthropogenic global warming. The complex cross-scale interactions of processes that produce precipitation are challenging to model, however, inducing potentially strong biases in ESM fields, especially regarding extremes. State-of-the-art bias correction methods only address errors in the simulated frequency distributions locally at every individual grid cell. Improving unrealistic spatial patterns of the ESM output, which would require spatial context, has not been possible so far. Here, we show that a post-processing method based on physically constrained generative adversarial networks (cGANs) can correct biases of a state-of-the-art, CMIP6-class ESM both in local frequency distributions and in the spatial patterns at once. While our method improves local frequency distributions equally well as gold-standard bias-adjustment frameworks, it strongly outperforms any existing methods in the correction of spatial patterns, especially in terms of the characteristic spatial intermittency of precipitation extremes.

The rise of ideological divides in public discourse has received considerable attention in recent years. However, much of this research has been concentrated on Western democratic nations, leaving other regions largely unexplored. Here, we delve into the political landscape of Pakistan, a nation marked by intricate political dynamics and persistent turbulence. Spanning from 2018 to 2022, our analysis of Twitter data allows us to capture pivotal shifts and developments in Pakistan's political arena. By examining interactions and content generated by politicians affiliated with major political parties, we reveal a consistent and active presence of politicians on Twitter, with opposition parties exhibiting particularly robust engagement. We explore the alignment of party audiences, highlighting a notable convergence among opposition factions over time. Our analysis also uncovers significant shifts in political affiliations, including the transition of politicians to the opposition alliance. Quantitatively, we assess evolving interaction patterns, showcasing the prevalence of homophilic connections while identifying a growing interconnection among audiences of opposition parties. Our study, by accurately reflecting shifts in the political landscape, underscores the reliability of our methodology and social media data as a valuable tool for monitoring political polarization and providing a nuanced understanding of macro-level trends and individual-level transformations.

Deep neural network based recommendation systems have achieved great success as information filtering techniques in recent years. However, since model training from scratch requires sufficient data, deep learning-based recommendation methods still face the bottlenecks of insufficient data and computational inefficiency. Meta-learning, as an emerging paradigm that learns to improve the learning efficiency and generalization ability of algorithms, has shown its strength in tackling the data sparsity issue. Recently, a growing number of studies on deep meta-learning based recommenddation systems have emerged for improving the performance under recommendation scenarios where available data is limited, e.g. user cold-start and item cold-start. Therefore, this survey provides a timely and comprehensive overview of current deep meta-learning based recommendation methods. Specifically, we propose a taxonomy to discuss existing methods according to recommendation scenarios, meta-learning techniques, and meta-knowledge representations, which could provide the design space for meta-learning based recommendation methods. For each recommendation scenario, we further discuss technical details about how existing methods apply meta-learning to improve the generalization ability of recommendation models. Finally, we also point out several limitations in current research and highlight some promising directions for future research in this area.

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

The Evidential regression network (ENet) estimates a continuous target and its predictive uncertainty without costly Bayesian model averaging. However, it is possible that the target is inaccurately predicted due to the gradient shrinkage problem of the original loss function of the ENet, the negative log marginal likelihood (NLL) loss. In this paper, the objective is to improve the prediction accuracy of the ENet while maintaining its efficient uncertainty estimation by resolving the gradient shrinkage problem. A multi-task learning (MTL) framework, referred to as MT-ENet, is proposed to accomplish this aim. In the MTL, we define the Lipschitz modified mean squared error (MSE) loss function as another loss and add it to the existing NLL loss. The Lipschitz modified MSE loss is designed to mitigate the gradient conflict with the NLL loss by dynamically adjusting its Lipschitz constant. By doing so, the Lipschitz MSE loss does not disturb the uncertainty estimation of the NLL loss. The MT-ENet enhances the predictive accuracy of the ENet without losing uncertainty estimation capability on the synthetic dataset and real-world benchmarks, including drug-target affinity (DTA) regression. Furthermore, the MT-ENet shows remarkable calibration and out-of-distribution detection capability on the DTA benchmarks.

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