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Skew-t copula models are attractive for the modeling of financial data because they allow for asymmetric and extreme tail dependence. We show that the copula implicit in the skew-t distribution of Azzalini and Capitanio (2003) allows for a higher level of pairwise asymmetric dependence than two popular alternative skew-t copulas. Estimation of this copula in high dimensions is challenging, and we propose a fast and accurate Bayesian variational inference (VI) approach to do so. The method uses a generative representation of the skew-t distribution to define an augmented posterior that can be approximated accurately. A stochastic gradient ascent algorithm is used to solve the variational optimization. The methodology is used to estimate skew-t factor copula models with up to 15 factors for intraday returns from 2017 to 2021 on 93 U.S. equities. The copula captures substantial heterogeneity in asymmetric dependence over equity pairs, in addition to the variability in pairwise correlations. In a moving window study we show that the asymmetric dependencies also vary over time, and that intraday predictive densities from the skew-t copula are more accurate than those from benchmark copula models. Portfolio selection strategies based on the estimated pairwise asymmetric dependencies improve performance relative to the index.

We present new fundamental results for the mean square error (MSE)-optimal conditional mean estimator (CME) in one-bit quantized systems for a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) distributed signal of interest, possibly corrupted by additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN). We first derive novel closed-form analytic expressions for the Bussgang estimator, the well-known linear minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimator in quantized systems. Afterward, closed-form analytic expressions for the CME in special cases are presented, revealing that the optimal estimator is linear in the one-bit quantized observation, opposite to higher resolution cases. Through a comparison to the recently studied Gaussian case, we establish a novel MSE inequality and show that that the signal of interest is correlated with the auxiliary quantization noise. We extend our analysis to multiple observation scenarios, examining the MSE-optimal transmit sequence and conducting an asymptotic analysis, yielding analytic expressions for the MSE and its limit. These contributions have broad impact for the analysis and design of various signal processing applications.

Neurosymbolic background knowledge and the expressivity required of its logic can break Machine Learning assumptions about data Independence and Identical Distribution. In this position paper we propose to analyze IID relaxation in a hierarchy of logics that fit different use case requirements. We discuss the benefits of exploiting known data dependencies and distribution constraints for Neurosymbolic use cases and argue that the expressivity required for this knowledge has implications for the design of underlying ML routines. This opens a new research agenda with general questions about Neurosymbolic background knowledge and the expressivity required of its logic.

In causal inference, estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is critical for identifying how different subgroups respond to interventions, with broad applications in fields such as precision medicine and personalized advertising. Although HTE estimation methods aim to improve accuracy, how to provide explicit subgroup descriptions remains unclear, hindering data interpretation and strategic intervention management. In this paper, we propose CURLS, a novel rule learning method leveraging HTE, which can effectively describe subgroups with significant treatment effects. Specifically, we frame causal rule learning as a discrete optimization problem, finely balancing treatment effect with variance and considering the rule interpretability. We design an iterative procedure based on the minorize-maximization algorithm and solve a submodular lower bound as an approximation for the original. Quantitative experiments and qualitative case studies verify that compared with state-of-the-art methods, CURLS can find subgroups where the estimated and true effects are 16.1% and 13.8% higher and the variance is 12.0% smaller, while maintaining similar or better estimation accuracy and rule interpretability. Code is available at //osf.io/zwp2k/.

The sample efficiency of Bayesian optimization algorithms depends on carefully crafted acquisition functions (AFs) guiding the sequential collection of function evaluations. The best-performing AF can vary significantly across optimization problems, often requiring ad-hoc and problem-specific choices. This work tackles the challenge of designing novel AFs that perform well across a variety of experimental settings. Based on FunSearch, a recent work using Large Language Models (LLMs) for discovery in mathematical sciences, we propose FunBO, an LLM-based method that can be used to learn new AFs written in computer code by leveraging access to a limited number of evaluations for a set of objective functions. We provide the analytic expression of all discovered AFs and evaluate them on various global optimization benchmarks and hyperparameter optimization tasks. We show how FunBO identifies AFs that generalize well in and out of the training distribution of functions, thus outperforming established general-purpose AFs and achieving competitive performance against AFs that are customized to specific function types and are learned via transfer-learning algorithms.

An online non-convex optimization problem is considered where the goal is to minimize the flow time (total delay) of a set of jobs by modulating the number of active servers, but with a switching cost associated with changing the number of active servers over time. Each job can be processed by at most one fixed speed server at any time. Compared to the usual online convex optimization (OCO) problem with switching cost, the objective function considered is non-convex and more importantly, at each time, it depends on all past decisions and not just the present one. Both worst-case and stochastic inputs are considered; for both cases, competitive algorithms are derived.

We prove that training neural networks on 1-D data is equivalent to solving a convex Lasso problem with a fixed, explicitly defined dictionary matrix of features. The specific dictionary depends on the activation and depth. We consider 2 and 3-layer networks with piecewise linear activations, and rectangular and tree networks with sign activation and arbitrary depth. Interestingly in absolute value and symmetrized ReLU networks, a third layer creates features that represent reflections of training data about themselves. The Lasso representation sheds insight to globally optimal networks and the solution landscape.

We consider contextual bandits with linear constraints (CBwLC), a variant of contextual bandits in which the algorithm consumes multiple resources subject to linear constraints on total consumption. This problem generalizes contextual bandits with knapsacks (CBwK), allowing for packing and covering constraints, as well as positive and negative resource consumption. We provide the first algorithm for CBwLC (or CBwK) that is based on regression oracles. The algorithm is simple, computationally efficient, and statistically optimal under mild assumptions. Further, we provide the first vanishing-regret guarantees for CBwLC (or CBwK) that extend beyond the stochastic environment. We side-step strong impossibility results from prior work by identifying a weaker (and, arguably, fairer) benchmark to compare against. Our algorithm builds on LagrangeBwK (Immorlica et al., FOCS 2019), a Lagrangian-based technique for CBwK, and SquareCB (Foster and Rakhlin, ICML 2020), a regression-based technique for contextual bandits. Our analysis leverages the inherent modularity of both techniques.

Existing recommender systems extract the user preference based on learning the correlation in data, such as behavioral correlation in collaborative filtering, feature-feature, or feature-behavior correlation in click-through rate prediction. However, regretfully, the real world is driven by causality rather than correlation, and correlation does not imply causation. For example, the recommender systems can recommend a battery charger to a user after buying a phone, in which the latter can serve as the cause of the former, and such a causal relation cannot be reversed. Recently, to address it, researchers in recommender systems have begun to utilize causal inference to extract causality, enhancing the recommender system. In this survey, we comprehensively review the literature on causal inference-based recommendation. At first, we present the fundamental concepts of both recommendation and causal inference as the basis of later content. We raise the typical issues that the non-causality recommendation is faced. Afterward, we comprehensively review the existing work of causal inference-based recommendation, based on a taxonomy of what kind of problem causal inference addresses. Last, we discuss the open problems in this important research area, along with interesting future works.

The existence of representative datasets is a prerequisite of many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, the subsequent application of these models often involves scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. The reasons for this are manifold and range from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable use of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is a huge challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches, and eventually to increase the generalization capability of these models. Furthermore, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-based models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories integration, extraction and conformity. Special attention is given to applications in the field of autonomous driving.