We introduce a novel framework for the classification of functional data supported on non-linear, and possibly random, manifold domains. The motivating application is the identification of subjects with Alzheimer's disease from their cortical surface geometry and associated cortical thickness map. The proposed model is based upon a reformulation of the classification problem into a regularized multivariate functional linear regression model. This allows us to adopt a direct approach to the estimation of the most discriminant direction while controlling for its complexity with appropriate differential regularization. Our approach does not require prior estimation of the covariance structure of the functional predictors, which is computationally not feasible in our application setting. We provide a theoretical analysis of the out-of-sample prediction error of the proposed model and explore the finite sample performance in a simulation setting. We apply the proposed method to a pooled dataset from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative and the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative, and are able to estimate discriminant directions that capture both cortical geometric and thickness predictive features of Alzheimer's Disease, which are consistent with the existing neuroscience literature.
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This article introduces an informative goodness-of-fit (iGOF) approach to study multivariate distributions. When the null model is rejected, iGOF allows us to identify the underlying sources of mismodeling and naturally equips practitioners with additional insights on the nature of the deviations from the true distribution. The informative character of the procedure is achieved by exploiting smooth tests and random fields theory to facilitate the analysis of multivariate data. Simulation studies show that iGOF enjoys high power for different types of alternatives. The methods presented here directly address the problem of background mismodeling arising in physics and astronomy. It is in these areas that the motivation of this work is rooted.
We develop a new Bayesian modelling framework for the class of higher-order, variable-memory Markov chains, and introduce an associated collection of methodological tools for exact inference with discrete time series. We show that a version of the context tree weighting algorithm can compute the prior predictive likelihood exactly (averaged over both models and parameters), and two related algorithms are introduced, which identify the a posteriori most likely models and compute their exact posterior probabilities. All three algorithms are deterministic and have linear-time complexity. A family of variable-dimension Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers is also provided, facilitating further exploration of the posterior. The performance of the proposed methods in model selection, Markov order estimation and prediction is illustrated through simulation experiments and real-world applications with data from finance, genetics, neuroscience, and animal communication. The associated algorithms are implemented in the R package BCT.
Consider a set of multivariate distributions, $F_1,\dots,F_M$, aiming to explain the same phenomenon. For instance, each $F_m$ may correspond to a different candidate background model for calibration data, or to one of many possible signal models we aim to validate on experimental data. In this article, we show that tests for a wide class of apparently different models $F_{m}$ can be mapped into a single test for a reference distribution $Q$. As a result, valid inference for each $F_m$ can be obtained by simulating \underline{only} the distribution of the test statistic under $Q$. Furthermore, $Q$ can be chosen conveniently simple to substantially reduce the computational time.
Local field potentials (LFPs) are signals that measure electrical activity in localized cortical regions from implanted tetrodes in the human or animal brain. The LFP signals are curves observed at multiple tetrodes which are implanted across a patch on the surface of the cortex. Hence, they can be treated as multi-group functional data, where the trajectories collected across temporal epochs from one tetrode are viewed as a group of functions. In many cases, multi-tetrode LFP trajectories contain both global variation patterns (which are shared in common to all groups, due to signal synchrony) and isolated variation patterns (common only to a small subset of groups), and such structure is very informative to the analysis of such data. Therefore, one goal in this paper is to develop an efficient procedure that is able to capture and quantify both global and isolated features. We propose a novel tree-structured functional principal components (filt-fPC) analysis through finite-dimensional functional representation - specifically via filtration. A major advantage of the proposed filt-fPC method is the ability to extract the components that are common to multiple groups (or tetrodes) in a flexible "multi-resolution" manner and simultaneously preserve the idiosyncratic individual components of different tetrodes. The proposed filt-fPC approach is highly data-driven and no "ground-truth" model pre-specification is needed, making it a suitable approach for analyzing multi-group functional data that is complex. In addition, the filt-fPC method is able to produce a parsimonious, interpretable, and efficient low dimensional representation of multi-group functional data with orthonormal basis functions. Here, the proposed filt-fPCA method is employed to study the impact of a shock (induced stroke) on the synchrony structure of the rat brain.
Because it determines a center-outward ordering of observations in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with $d\geq 2$, the concept of statistical depth permits to define quantiles and ranks for multivariate data and use them for various statistical tasks (e.g. inference, hypothesis testing). Whereas many depth functions have been proposed \textit{ad-hoc} in the literature since the seminal contribution of \cite{Tukey75}, not all of them possess the properties desirable to emulate the notion of quantile function for univariate probability distributions. In this paper, we propose an extension of the \textit{integrated rank-weighted} statistical depth (IRW depth in abbreviated form) originally introduced in \cite{IRW}, modified in order to satisfy the property of \textit{affine-invariance}, fulfilling thus all the four key axioms listed in the nomenclature elaborated by \cite{ZuoS00a}. The variant we propose, referred to as the Affine-Invariant IRW depth (AI-IRW in short), involves the covariance/precision matrices of the (supposedly square integrable) $d$-dimensional random vector $X$ under study, in order to take into account the directions along which $X$ is most variable to assign a depth value to any point $x\in \mathbb{R}^d$. The accuracy of the sampling version of the AI-IRW depth is investigated from a nonasymptotic perspective. Namely, a concentration result for the statistical counterpart of the AI-IRW depth is proved. Beyond the theoretical analysis carried out, applications to anomaly detection are considered and numerical results are displayed, providing strong empirical evidence of the relevance of the depth function we propose here.
Covariance matrices of noisy multichannel electroencephalogram time series data are hard to estimate due to high dimensionality. In brain-computer interfaces (BCI) based on event-related potentials and a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for classification, the state of the art to address this problem is by shrinkage regularization. We propose a novel idea to tackle this problem by enforcing a block-Toeplitz structure for the covariance matrix of the LDA, which implements an assumption of signal stationarity in short time windows for each channel. On data of 213 subjects collected under 13 event-related potential BCI protocols, the resulting 'ToeplitzLDA' significantly increases the binary classification performance compared to shrinkage regularized LDA (up to 6 AUC points) and Riemannian classification approaches (up to 2 AUC points). This translates to greatly improved application level performances, as exemplified on data recorded during an unsupervised visual speller application, where spelling errors could be reduced by 81% on average for 25 subjects. Aside from lower memory and time complexity for LDA training, ToeplitzLDA proved to be almost invariant even to a twenty-fold time dimensionality enlargement, which reduces the need of expert knowledge regarding feature extraction.
There has been a growing interest in unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) to alleviate the data scalability issue, while the existing works usually focus on classifying independently discrete labels. However, in many tasks (e.g., medical diagnosis), the labels are discrete and successively distributed. The UDA for ordinal classification requires inducing non-trivial ordinal distribution prior to the latent space. Target for this, the partially ordered set (poset) is defined for constraining the latent vector. Instead of the typically i.i.d. Gaussian latent prior, in this work, a recursively conditional Gaussian (RCG) set is proposed for ordered constraint modeling, which admits a tractable joint distribution prior. Furthermore, we are able to control the density of content vectors that violate the poset constraint by a simple "three-sigma rule". We explicitly disentangle the cross-domain images into a shared ordinal prior induced ordinal content space and two separate source/target ordinal-unrelated spaces, and the self-training is worked on the shared space exclusively for ordinal-aware domain alignment. Extensive experiments on UDA medical diagnoses and facial age estimation demonstrate its effectiveness.
Influence maximization is the task of selecting a small number of seed nodes in a social network to maximize the spread of the influence from these seeds, and it has been widely investigated in the past two decades. In the canonical setting, the whole social network as well as its diffusion parameters is given as input. In this paper, we consider the more realistic sampling setting where the network is unknown and we only have a set of passively observed cascades that record the set of activated nodes at each diffusion step. We study the task of influence maximization from these cascade samples (IMS), and present constant approximation algorithms for this task under mild conditions on the seed set distribution. To achieve the optimization goal, we also provide a novel solution to the network inference problem, that is, learning diffusion parameters and the network structure from the cascade data. Comparing with prior solutions, our network inference algorithm requires weaker assumptions and does not rely on maximum-likelihood estimation and convex programming. Our IMS algorithms enhance the learning-and-then-optimization approach by allowing a constant approximation ratio even when the diffusion parameters are hard to learn, and we do not need any assumption related to the network structure or diffusion parameters.
Existing domain adaptation focuses on transferring knowledge between domains with categorical indices (e.g., between datasets A and B). However, many tasks involve continuously indexed domains. For example, in medical applications, one often needs to transfer disease analysis and prediction across patients of different ages, where age acts as a continuous domain index. Such tasks are challenging for prior domain adaptation methods since they ignore the underlying relation among domains. In this paper, we propose the first method for continuously indexed domain adaptation. Our approach combines traditional adversarial adaptation with a novel discriminator that models the encoding-conditioned domain index distribution. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates the value of leveraging the domain index to generate invariant features across a continuous range of domains. Our empirical results show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art domain adaption methods on both synthetic and real-world medical datasets.
In this paper we introduce a covariance framework for the analysis of EEG and MEG data that takes into account observed temporal stationarity on small time scales and trial-to-trial variations. We formulate a model for the covariance matrix, which is a Kronecker product of three components that correspond to space, time and epochs/trials, and consider maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameter values. An iterative algorithm that finds approximations of the maximum likelihood estimates is proposed. We perform a simulation study to assess the performance of the estimator and investigate the influence of different assumptions about the covariance factors on the estimated covariance matrix and on its components. Apart from that, we illustrate our method on real EEG and MEG data sets. The proposed covariance model is applicable in a variety of cases where spontaneous EEG or MEG acts as source of noise and realistic noise covariance estimates are needed for accurate dipole localization, such as in evoked activity studies, or where the properties of spontaneous EEG or MEG are themselves the topic of interest, such as in combined EEG/fMRI experiments in which the correlation between EEG and fMRI signals is investigated.
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