Conformal inference has played a pivotal role in providing uncertainty quantification for black-box ML prediction algorithms with finite sample guarantees. Traditionally, conformal prediction inference requires a data-independent specification of miscoverage level. In practical applications, one might want to update the miscoverage level after computing the prediction set. For example, in the context of binary classification, the analyst might start with a 95$\%$ prediction sets and see that most prediction sets contain all outcome classes. Prediction sets with both classes being undesirable, the analyst might desire to consider, say 80$\%$ prediction set. Construction of prediction sets that guarantee coverage with data-dependent miscoverage level can be considered as a post-selection inference problem. In this work, we develop simultaneous conformal inference to account for data-dependent miscoverage levels. Under the assumption of independent and identically distributed observations, our proposed methods have a finite sample simultaneous guarantee over all miscoverage levels. This allows practitioners to trade freely coverage probability for the quality of the prediction set by any criterion of their choice (say size of prediction set) while maintaining the finite sample guarantees similar to traditional conformal inference.
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Weibull Racing Survival Analysis with Competing Events, Left Truncation, and Time-varying Covariates
We propose Bayesian nonparametric Weibull delegate racing (WDR) for survival analysis with competing events and achieve both model interpretability and flexibility. Utilizing a natural mechanism of surviving competing events, we assume a race among a potentially infinite number of sub-events. In doing this, WDR accommodates nonlinear covariate effects with no need of data transformation. Moreover, WDR is able to handle left truncation, time-varying covariates, different types of censoring, and missing event times or types. We develop an efficient MCMC algorithm based on Gibbs sampling for Bayesian inference and provide an \texttt{R} package. Synthetic data analysis and comparison with benchmark approaches demonstrate WDR's outstanding performance and parsimonious nonlinear modeling capacity. In addition, we analyze two real data sets and showcase advantages of WDR. Specifically, we study time to death of three types of lymphoma and show the potential of WDR in modeling nonlinear covariate effects and discovering new diseases. We also use WDR to investigate the age at onset of mild cognitive impairment and interpret the accelerating or decelerating effects of biomarkers on the progression of Alzheimer's disease.
As language models increase in size by the day, methods for efficient inference are critical to leveraging their capabilities for various applications. Prior work has investigated techniques like model pruning, knowledge distillation, and data multiplexing to increase model throughput without sacrificing accuracy. In this paper, we combine two such methods -- structured pruning and data multiplexing -- to compound the speedup gains obtained by either method. Our approach, PruMUX, obtains up to 7.5-29.5X throughput improvement over BERT-base model with accuracy threshold from 80% to 74%. We further study various combinations of parameters (such as sparsity and multiplexing factor) in the two techniques to provide a comprehensive analysis of the tradeoff between accuracy and throughput in the resulting models. We then propose Auto-PruMUX, a meta-level model that can predict the high-performance parameters for pruning and multiplexing given a desired accuracy loss budget, providing a practical method to leverage the combination effectively.
The problem of system identification for the Kalman filter, relying on the expectation-maximization (EM) procedure to learn the underlying parameters of a dynamical system, has largely been studied assuming that observations are sampled at equally-spaced time points. However, in many applications this is a restrictive and unrealistic assumption. This paper addresses system identification for the continuous-discrete filter, with the aim of generalizing learning for the Kalman filter by relying on a solution to a continuous-time It\^o stochastic differential equation (SDE) for the latent state and covariance dynamics. We introduce a novel two-filter, analytical form for the posterior with a Bayesian derivation, which yields analytical updates which do not require the forward-pass to be pre-computed. Using this analytical and efficient computation of the posterior, we provide an EM procedure which estimates the parameters of the SDE, naturally incorporating irregularly sampled measurements. Generalizing the learning of latent linear dynamical systems (LDS) to continuous-time may extend the use of the hybrid Kalman filter to data which is not regularly sampled or has intermittent missing values, and can extend the power of non-linear system identification methods such as switching LDS (SLDS), which rely on EM for the linear discrete-time Kalman filter as a sub-unit for learning locally linearized behavior of a non-linear system. We apply the method by learning the parameters of a latent, multivariate Fokker-Planck SDE representing a toggle-switch genetic circuit using biologically realistic parameters, and compare the efficacy of learning relative to the discrete-time Kalman filter as the step-size irregularity and spectral-radius of the dynamics-matrix increases.
Temporal graphs represent interactions between entities over time. Deciding whether entities can reach each other through temporal paths is useful for various applications such as in communication networks and epidemiology. Previous works have studied the scenario in which addition of new interactions can happen at any point in time. A known strategy maintains, incrementally, a Timed Transitive Closure by using a dynamic data structure composed of $O(n^2)$ binary search trees containing non-nested time intervals. However, space usage for storing these trees grows rapidly as more interactions are inserted. In this paper, we present a compact data structures that represent each tree as two dynamic bit-vectors. In our experiments, we observed that our data structure improves space usage while having similar time performance for incremental updates when comparing with the previous strategy in temporally dense temporal graphs.
Maintaining high efficiency and high precision are two fundamental challenges in UAV tracking due to the constraints of computing resources, battery capacity, and UAV maximum load. Discriminative correlation filters (DCF)-based trackers can yield high efficiency on a single CPU but with inferior precision. Lightweight Deep learning (DL)-based trackers can achieve a good balance between efficiency and precision but performance gains are limited by the compression rate. High compression rate often leads to poor discriminative representations. To this end, this paper aims to enhance the discriminative power of feature representations from a new feature-learning perspective. Specifically, we attempt to learn more disciminative representations with contrastive instances for UAV tracking in a simple yet effective manner, which not only requires no manual annotations but also allows for developing and deploying a lightweight model. We are the first to explore contrastive learning for UAV tracking. Extensive experiments on four UAV benchmarks, including UAV123@10fps, DTB70, UAVDT and VisDrone2018, show that the proposed DRCI tracker significantly outperforms state-of-the-art UAV tracking methods.
Information bottleneck (IB) is a paradigm to extract information in one target random variable from another relevant random variable, which has aroused great interest due to its potential to explain deep neural networks in terms of information compression and prediction. Despite its great importance, finding the optimal bottleneck variable involves a difficult nonconvex optimization problem due to the nonconvexity of mutual information constraint. The Blahut-Arimoto algorithm and its variants provide an approach by considering its Lagrangian with fixed Lagrange multiplier. However, only the strictly concave IB curve can be fully obtained by the BA algorithm, which strongly limits its application in machine learning and related fields, as strict concavity cannot be guaranteed in those problems. To overcome the above difficulty, we derive an entropy regularized optimal transport (OT) model for IB problem from a posterior probability perspective. Correspondingly, we use the alternating optimization procedure and generalize the Sinkhorn algorithm to solve the above OT model. The effectiveness and efficiency of our approach are demonstrated via numerical experiments.
We consider the low rank matrix completion problem over finite fields. This problem has been extensively studied in the domain of real/complex numbers, however, to the best of authors' knowledge, there exists merely one efficient algorithm to tackle the problem in the binary field, due to Saunderson et al. [1]. In this paper, we improve upon the theoretical guarantees for the algorithm provided in [1]. Furthermore, we formulate a new graphical model for the matrix completion problem over the finite field of size $q$, $\Bbb{F}_q$, and present a message passing (MP) based approach to solve this problem. The proposed algorithm is the first one for the considered matrix completion problem over finite fields of arbitrary size. Our proposed method has a significantly lower computational complexity, reducing it from $O(n^{2r+3})$ in [1] down to $O(n^2)$ (where, the underlying matrix has dimension $n \times n$ and $r$ denotes its rank), while also improving the performance.
Multi-agent influence diagrams (MAIDs) are a popular form of graphical model that, for certain classes of games, have been shown to offer key complexity and explainability advantages over traditional extensive form game (EFG) representations. In this paper, we extend previous work on MAIDs by introducing the concept of a MAID subgame, as well as subgame perfect and trembling hand perfect equilibrium refinements. We then prove several equivalence results between MAIDs and EFGs. Finally, we describe an open source implementation for reasoning about MAIDs and computing their equilibria.
Generative commonsense reasoning which aims to empower machines to generate sentences with the capacity of reasoning over a set of concepts is a critical bottleneck for text generation. Even the state-of-the-art pre-trained language generation models struggle at this task and often produce implausible and anomalous sentences. One reason is that they rarely consider incorporating the knowledge graph which can provide rich relational information among the commonsense concepts. To promote the ability of commonsense reasoning for text generation, we propose a novel knowledge graph augmented pre-trained language generation model KG-BART, which encompasses the complex relations of concepts through the knowledge graph and produces more logical and natural sentences as output. Moreover, KG-BART can leverage the graph attention to aggregate the rich concept semantics that enhances the model generalization on unseen concept sets. Experiments on benchmark CommonGen dataset verify the effectiveness of our proposed approach by comparing with several strong pre-trained language generation models, particularly KG-BART outperforms BART by 5.80, 4.60, in terms of BLEU-3, 4. Moreover, we also show that the generated context by our model can work as background scenarios to benefit downstream commonsense QA tasks.
State-of-the-art recommendation algorithms -- especially the collaborative filtering (CF) based approaches with shallow or deep models -- usually work with various unstructured information sources for recommendation, such as textual reviews, visual images, and various implicit or explicit feedbacks. Though structured knowledge bases were considered in content-based approaches, they have been largely neglected recently due to the availability of vast amount of data, and the learning power of many complex models. However, structured knowledge bases exhibit unique advantages in personalized recommendation systems. When the explicit knowledge about users and items is considered for recommendation, the system could provide highly customized recommendations based on users' historical behaviors. A great challenge for using knowledge bases for recommendation is how to integrated large-scale structured and unstructured data, while taking advantage of collaborative filtering for highly accurate performance. Recent achievements on knowledge base embedding sheds light on this problem, which makes it possible to learn user and item representations while preserving the structure of their relationship with external knowledge. In this work, we propose to reason over knowledge base embeddings for personalized recommendation. Specifically, we propose a knowledge base representation learning approach to embed heterogeneous entities for recommendation. Experimental results on real-world dataset verified the superior performance of our approach compared with state-of-the-art baselines.
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