In many regression settings the unknown coefficients may have some known structure, for instance they may be ordered in space or correspond to a vectorized matrix or tensor. At the same time, the unknown coefficients may be sparse, with many nearly or exactly equal to zero. However, many commonly used priors and corresponding penalties for coefficients do not encourage simultaneously structured and sparse estimates. In this paper we develop structured shrinkage priors that generalize multivariate normal, Laplace, exponential power and normal-gamma priors. These priors allow the regression coefficients to be correlated a priori without sacrificing elementwise sparsity or shrinkage. The primary challenges in working with these structured shrinkage priors are computational, as the corresponding penalties are intractable integrals and the full conditional distributions that are needed to approximate the posterior mode or simulate from the posterior distribution may be non-standard. We overcome these issues using a flexible elliptical slice sampling procedure, and demonstrate that these priors can be used to introduce structure while preserving sparsity.
相關內容
When estimating a regression model, we might have data where some labels are missing, or our data might be biased by a selection mechanism. When the response or selection mechanism is ignorable (i.e., independent of the response variable given the features) one can use off-the-shelf regression methods; in the nonignorable case one typically has to adjust for bias. We observe that privileged information (i.e. information that is only available during training) might render a nonignorable selection mechanism ignorable, and we refer to this scenario as Privilegedly Missing at Random (PMAR). We propose a novel imputation-based regression method, named repeated regression, that is suitable for PMAR. We also consider an importance weighted regression method, and a doubly robust combination of the two. The proposed methods are easy to implement with most popular out-of-the-box regression algorithms. We empirically assess the performance of the proposed methods with extensive simulated experiments and on a synthetically augmented real-world dataset. We conclude that repeated regression can appropriately correct for bias, and can have considerable advantage over weighted regression, especially when extrapolating to regions of the feature space where response is never observed.
Conditional independence (CI) tests are widely used in statistical data analysis, e.g., they are the building block of many algorithms for causal graph discovery. The goal of a CI test is to accept or reject the null hypothesis that $X \perp \!\!\! \perp Y \mid Z$, where $X \in \mathbb{R}, Y \in \mathbb{R}, Z \in \mathbb{R}^d$. In this work, we investigate conditional independence testing under the constraint of differential privacy. We design two private CI testing procedures: one based on the generalized covariance measure of Shah and Peters (2020) and another based on the conditional randomization test of Cand\`es et al. (2016) (under the model-X assumption). We provide theoretical guarantees on the performance of our tests and validate them empirically. These are the first private CI tests that work for the general case when $Z$ is continuous.
This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for and a suspected instrument. Under a causal structure commonly found in empirical applications, the testable conditional independence of the suspected instrument and the outcome given the treatment and the covariates has two implications. First, the instrument is valid, i.e. it does not directly affect the outcome (other than through the treatment) and is unconfounded conditional on the covariates. Second, the treatment is unconfounded conditional on the covariates such that the treatment effect is identified. We suggest tests of this conditional independence based on machine learning methods that account for covariates in a data-driven way and investigate their asymptotic behavior and finite sample performance in a simulation study. We also apply our testing approach to evaluating the impact of fertility on female labor supply when using the sibling sex ratio of the first two children as supposed instrument, which by and large points to a violation of our testable implication for the moderate set of socio-economic covariates considered.
In this paper, we study the estimation of the derivative of a regression function in a standard univariate regression model. The estimators are defined either by derivating nonparametric least-squares estimators of the regression function or by estimating the projection of the derivative. We prove two simple risk bounds allowing to compare our estimators. More elaborate bounds under a stability assumption are then provided. Bases and spaces on which we can illustrate our assumptions and first results are both of compact or non compact type, and we discuss the rates reached by our estimators. They turn out to be optimal in the compact case. Lastly, we propose a model selection procedure and prove the associated risk bound. To consider bases with a non compact support makes the problem difficult.
A private private information structure delivers information about an unknown state while preserving privacy: An agent's signal contains information about the state but remains independent of others' sensitive or private information. We study how informative such structures can be, and characterize those that are optimal in the sense that they cannot be made more informative without violating privacy. We connect our results to fairness in recommendation systems and explore a number of further applications.
We present a new approach to semiparametric inference using corrected posterior distributions. The method allows us to leverage the adaptivity, regularization and predictive power of nonparametric Bayesian procedures to estimate low-dimensional functionals of interest without being restricted by the holistic Bayesian formalism. Starting from a conventional nonparametric posterior, we target the functional of interest by transforming the entire distribution with a Bayesian bootstrap correction. We provide conditions for the resulting $\textit{one-step posterior}$ to possess calibrated frequentist properties and specialize the results for several canonical examples: the integrated squared density, the mean of a missing-at-random outcome, and the average causal treatment effect on the treated. The procedure is computationally attractive, requiring only a simple, efficient post-processing step that can be attached onto any arbitrary posterior sampling algorithm. Using the ACIC 2016 causal data analysis competition, we illustrate that our approach can outperform the existing state-of-the-art through the propagation of Bayesian uncertainty.
Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) requires the collection of interventional data, which is sometimes expensive and even unethical in the real world, such as in the autonomous driving and the medical field. Offline reinforcement learning promises to alleviate this issue by exploiting the vast amount of observational data available in the real world. However, observational data may mislead the learning agent to undesirable outcomes if the behavior policy that generates the data depends on unobserved random variables (i.e., confounders). In this paper, we propose two deconfounding methods in DRL to address this problem. The methods first calculate the importance degree of different samples based on the causal inference technique, and then adjust the impact of different samples on the loss function by reweighting or resampling the offline dataset to ensure its unbiasedness. These deconfounding methods can be flexibly combined with existing model-free DRL algorithms such as soft actor-critic and deep Q-learning, provided that a weak condition can be satisfied by the loss functions of these algorithms. We prove the effectiveness of our deconfounding methods and validate them experimentally.
In the process of product design and digital fabrication, the structural analysis of a designed prototype is a fundamental and essential step. However, such a step is usually invisible or inaccessible to designers at the early sketching phase. This limits the user's ability to consider a shape's physical properties and structural soundness. To bridge this gap, we introduce a novel approach Sketch2Stress that allows users to perform structural analysis of desired objects at the sketching stage. This method takes as input a 2D freehand sketch and one or multiple locations of user-assigned external forces. With the specially-designed two-branch generative-adversarial framework, it automatically predicts a normal map and a corresponding structural stress map distributed over the user-sketched underlying object. In this way, our method empowers designers to easily examine the stress sustained everywhere and identify potential problematic regions of their sketched object. Furthermore, combined with the predicted normal map, users are able to conduct a region-wise structural analysis efficiently by aggregating the stress effects of multiple forces in the same direction. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of our system with extensive experiments and user studies.
While Reinforcement Learning (RL) achieves tremendous success in sequential decision-making problems of many domains, it still faces key challenges of data inefficiency and the lack of interpretability. Interestingly, many researchers have leveraged insights from the causality literature recently, bringing forth flourishing works to unify the merits of causality and address well the challenges from RL. As such, it is of great necessity and significance to collate these Causal Reinforcement Learning (CRL) works, offer a review of CRL methods, and investigate the potential functionality from causality toward RL. In particular, we divide existing CRL approaches into two categories according to whether their causality-based information is given in advance or not. We further analyze each category in terms of the formalization of different models, ranging from the Markov Decision Process (MDP), Partially Observed Markov Decision Process (POMDP), Multi-Arm Bandits (MAB), and Dynamic Treatment Regime (DTR). Moreover, we summarize the evaluation matrices and open sources while we discuss emerging applications, along with promising prospects for the future development of CRL.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown promising results on a broad spectrum of applications. Most empirical studies of GNNs directly take the observed graph as input, assuming the observed structure perfectly depicts the accurate and complete relations between nodes. However, graphs in the real world are inevitably noisy or incomplete, which could even exacerbate the quality of graph representations. In this work, we propose a novel Variational Information Bottleneck guided Graph Structure Learning framework, namely VIB-GSL, in the perspective of information theory. VIB-GSL advances the Information Bottleneck (IB) principle for graph structure learning, providing a more elegant and universal framework for mining underlying task-relevant relations. VIB-GSL learns an informative and compressive graph structure to distill the actionable information for specific downstream tasks. VIB-GSL deduces a variational approximation for irregular graph data to form a tractable IB objective function, which facilitates training stability. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the superior effectiveness and robustness of VIB-GSL.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191