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We propose a new Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects alternative exclusion restrictions over time and, as a condition for the search, allows to verify identification through heteroskedasticity within each regime. Based on four alternative monetary policy rules, we show that a monthly six-variable system supports time variation in US monetary policy shock identification. In the sample-dominating first regime, systematic monetary policy follows a Taylor rule extended by the term spread, effectively curbing inflation. In the second regime, occurring after 2000 and gaining more persistence after the global financial and COVID crises, it is characterized by a money-augmented Taylor rule. This regime's unconventional monetary policy provides economic stimulus, features the liquidity effect, and is complemented by a pure term spread shock. Absent the specific monetary policy of the second regime, inflation would be over one percentage point higher on average after 2008.

The end-to-end learning pipeline is gradually creating a paradigm shift in the ongoing development of highly autonomous vehicles, largely due to advances in deep learning, the availability of large-scale training datasets, and improvements in integrated sensor devices. However, a lack of interpretability in real-time decisions with contemporary learning methods impedes user trust and attenuates the widespread deployment and commercialization of such vehicles. Moreover, the issue is exacerbated when these cars are involved in or cause traffic accidents. Such drawback raises serious safety concerns from societal and legal perspectives. Consequently, explainability in end-to-end autonomous driving is essential to build trust in vehicular automation. However, the safety and explainability aspects of end-to-end driving have generally been investigated disjointly by researchers in today's state of the art. This survey aims to bridge the gaps between these topics and seeks to answer the following research question: When and how can explanations improve safety of end-to-end autonomous driving? In this regard, we first revisit established safety and state-of-the-art explainability techniques in end-to-end driving. Furthermore, we present three critical case studies and show the pivotal role of explanations in enhancing self-driving safety. Finally, we describe insights from empirical studies and reveal potential value, limitations, and caveats of practical explainable AI methods with respect to their safety assurance in end-to-end autonomous driving.

Instructing the model to generate a sequence of intermediate steps, a.k.a., a chain of thought (CoT), is a highly effective method to improve the accuracy of large language models (LLMs) on arithmetics and symbolic reasoning tasks. However, the mechanism behind CoT remains unclear. This work provides a theoretical understanding of the power of CoT for decoder-only transformers through the lens of expressiveness. Conceptually, CoT empowers the model with the ability to perform inherently serial computation, which is otherwise lacking in transformers, especially when depth is low. Given input length $n$, previous works have shown that constant-depth transformers with finite precision $\mathsf{poly}(n)$ embedding size can only solve problems in $\mathsf{TC}^0$ without CoT. We first show an even tighter expressiveness upper bound for constant-depth transformers with constant-bit precision, which can only solve problems in $\mathsf{AC}^0$, a proper subset of $ \mathsf{TC}^0$. However, with $T$ steps of CoT, constant-depth transformers using constant-bit precision and $O(\log n)$ embedding size can solve any problem solvable by boolean circuits of size $T$. Empirically, enabling CoT dramatically improves the accuracy for tasks that are hard for parallel computation, including the composition of permutation groups, iterated squaring, and circuit value problems, especially for low-depth transformers.

Runtime analysis, as a branch of the theory of AI, studies how the number of iterations algorithms take before finding a solution (its runtime) depends on the design of the algorithm and the problem structure. Drift analysis is a state-of-the-art tool for estimating the runtime of randomised algorithms, such as evolutionary and bandit algorithms. Drift refers roughly to the expected progress towards the optimum per iteration. This paper considers the problem of deriving concentration tail-bounds on the runtime/regret of algorithms. It provides a novel drift theorem that gives precise exponential tail-bounds given positive, weak, zero and even negative drift. Previously, such exponential tail bounds were missing in the case of weak, zero, or negative drift. Our drift theorem can be used to prove a strong concentration of the runtime/regret of algorithms in AI. For example, we prove that the regret of the \rwab bandit algorithm is highly concentrated, while previous analyses only considered the expected regret. This means that the algorithm obtains the optimum within a given time frame with high probability, i.e. a form of algorithm reliability. Moreover, our theorem implies that the time needed by the co-evolutionary algorithm RLS-PD to obtain a Nash equilibrium in a \bilinear max-min-benchmark problem is highly concentrated. However, we also prove that the algorithm forgets the Nash equilibrium, and the time until this occurs is highly concentrated. This highlights a weakness in the RLS-PD which should be addressed by future work.

We study robustness to test-time adversarial attacks in the regression setting with $\ell_p$ losses and arbitrary perturbation sets. We address the question of which function classes are PAC learnable in this setting. We show that classes of finite fat-shattering dimension are learnable in both realizable and agnostic settings. Moreover, for convex function classes, they are even properly learnable. In contrast, some non-convex function classes provably require improper learning algorithms. Our main technique is based on a construction of an adversarially robust sample compression scheme of a size determined by the fat-shattering dimension. Along the way, we introduce a novel agnostic sample compression scheme for real-valued functions, which may be of independent interest.

By concatenating a polar transform with a convolutional transform, polarization-adjusted convolutional (PAC) codes can reach the dispersion approximation bound in certain rate cases. However, the sequential decoding nature of traditional PAC decoding algorithms results in high decoding latency. Due to the parallel computing capability, deep neural network (DNN) decoders have emerged as a promising solution. In this paper, we propose three types of DNN decoders for PAC codes: multi-layer perceptron (MLP), convolutional neural network (CNN), and recurrent neural network (RNN). The performance of these DNN decoders is evaluated through extensive simulation. Numerical results show that the MLP decoder has the best error-correction performance under a similar model parameter number.

Surrogate neural network-based partial differential equation (PDE) solvers have the potential to solve PDEs in an accelerated manner, but they are largely limited to systems featuring fixed domain sizes, geometric layouts, and boundary conditions. We propose Specialized Neural Accelerator-Powered Domain Decomposition Methods (SNAP-DDM), a DDM-based approach to PDE solving in which subdomain problems containing arbitrary boundary conditions and geometric parameters are accurately solved using an ensemble of specialized neural operators. We tailor SNAP-DDM to 2D electromagnetics and fluidic flow problems and show how innovations in network architecture and loss function engineering can produce specialized surrogate subdomain solvers with near unity accuracy. We utilize these solvers with standard DDM algorithms to accurately solve freeform electromagnetics and fluids problems featuring a wide range of domain sizes.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown excellent generalization capabilities that have led to the development of numerous models. These models propose various new architectures, tweaking existing architectures with refined training strategies, increasing context length, using high-quality training data, and increasing training time to outperform baselines. Analyzing new developments is crucial for identifying changes that enhance training stability and improve generalization in LLMs. This survey paper comprehensively analyses the LLMs architectures and their categorization, training strategies, training datasets, and performance evaluations and discusses future research directions. Moreover, the paper also discusses the basic building blocks and concepts behind LLMs, followed by a complete overview of LLMs, including their important features and functions. Finally, the paper summarizes significant findings from LLM research and consolidates essential architectural and training strategies for developing advanced LLMs. Given the continuous advancements in LLMs, we intend to regularly update this paper by incorporating new sections and featuring the latest LLM models.

Residual networks (ResNets) have displayed impressive results in pattern recognition and, recently, have garnered considerable theoretical interest due to a perceived link with neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). This link relies on the convergence of network weights to a smooth function as the number of layers increases. We investigate the properties of weights trained by stochastic gradient descent and their scaling with network depth through detailed numerical experiments. We observe the existence of scaling regimes markedly different from those assumed in neural ODE literature. Depending on certain features of the network architecture, such as the smoothness of the activation function, one may obtain an alternative ODE limit, a stochastic differential equation or neither of these. These findings cast doubts on the validity of the neural ODE model as an adequate asymptotic description of deep ResNets and point to an alternative class of differential equations as a better description of the deep network limit.

We describe the new field of mathematical analysis of deep learning. This field emerged around a list of research questions that were not answered within the classical framework of learning theory. These questions concern: the outstanding generalization power of overparametrized neural networks, the role of depth in deep architectures, the apparent absence of the curse of dimensionality, the surprisingly successful optimization performance despite the non-convexity of the problem, understanding what features are learned, why deep architectures perform exceptionally well in physical problems, and which fine aspects of an architecture affect the behavior of a learning task in which way. We present an overview of modern approaches that yield partial answers to these questions. For selected approaches, we describe the main ideas in more detail.