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We reinvigorate maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for macroeconomic density forecasting through a novel neural network architecture with dedicated mean and variance hemispheres. Our architecture features several key ingredients making MLE work in this context. First, the hemispheres share a common core at the entrance of the network which accommodates for various forms of time variation in the error variance. Second, we introduce a volatility emphasis constraint that breaks mean/variance indeterminacy in this class of overparametrized nonlinear models. Third, we conduct a blocked out-of-bag reality check to curb overfitting in both conditional moments. Fourth, the algorithm utilizes standard deep learning software and thus handles large data sets - both computationally and statistically. Ergo, our Hemisphere Neural Network (HNN) provides proactive volatility forecasts based on leading indicators when it can, and reactive volatility based on the magnitude of previous prediction errors when it must. We evaluate point and density forecasts with an extensive out-of-sample experiment and benchmark against a suite of models ranging from classics to more modern machine learning-based offerings. In all cases, HNN fares well by consistently providing accurate mean/variance forecasts for all targets and horizons. Studying the resulting volatility paths reveals its versatility, while probabilistic forecasting evaluation metrics showcase its enviable reliability. Finally, we also demonstrate how this machinery can be merged with other structured deep learning models by revisiting Goulet Coulombe (2022)'s Neural Phillips Curve.

We introduce a novel modeling approach for time series imputation and forecasting, tailored to address the challenges often encountered in real-world data, such as irregular samples, missing data, or unaligned measurements from multiple sensors. Our method relies on a continuous-time-dependent model of the series' evolution dynamics. It leverages adaptations of conditional, implicit neural representations for sequential data. A modulation mechanism, driven by a meta-learning algorithm, allows adaptation to unseen samples and extrapolation beyond observed time-windows for long-term predictions. The model provides a highly flexible and unified framework for imputation and forecasting tasks across a wide range of challenging scenarios. It achieves state-of-the-art performance on classical benchmarks and outperforms alternative time-continuous models.

The study of human emotions, traditionally a cornerstone in fields like psychology and neuroscience, has been profoundly impacted by the advent of artificial intelligence (AI). Multiple channels, such as speech (voice) and facial expressions (image), are crucial in understanding human emotions. However, AI's journey in multimodal emotion recognition (MER) is marked by substantial technical challenges. One significant hurdle is how AI models manage the absence of a particular modality - a frequent occurrence in real-world situations. This study's central focus is assessing the performance and resilience of two strategies when confronted with the lack of one modality: a novel multimodal dynamic modality and view selection and a cross-attention mechanism. Results on the RECOLA dataset show that dynamic selection-based methods are a promising approach for MER. In the missing modalities scenarios, all dynamic selection-based methods outperformed the baseline. The study concludes by emphasizing the intricate interplay between audio and video modalities in emotion prediction, showcasing the adaptability of dynamic selection methods in handling missing modalities.

The Parallel Meaning Bank (PMB) serves as a corpus for semantic processing with a focus on semantic parsing and text generation. Currently, we witness an excellent performance of neural parsers and generators on the PMB. This might suggest that such semantic processing tasks have by and large been solved. We argue that this is not the case and that performance scores from the past on the PMB are inflated by non-optimal data splits and test sets that are too easy. In response, we introduce several changes. First, instead of the prior random split, we propose a more systematic splitting approach to improve the reliability of the standard test data. Second, except for the standard test set, we also propose two challenge sets: one with longer texts including discourse structure, and one that addresses compositional generalization. We evaluate five neural models for semantic parsing and meaning-to-text generation. Our results show that model performance declines (in some cases dramatically) on the challenge sets, revealing the limitations of neural models when confronting such challenges.

This paper explores the enhancement of solution diversity in evolutionary algorithms (EAs) for the maximum matching problem, concentrating on complete bipartite graphs and paths. We adopt binary string encoding for matchings and use Hamming distance to measure diversity, aiming for its maximization. Our study centers on the $(\mu+1)$-EA and $2P-EA_D$, which are applied to optimize diversity. We provide a rigorous theoretical and empirical analysis of these algorithms. For complete bipartite graphs, our runtime analysis shows that, with a reasonably small $\mu$, the $(\mu+1)$-EA achieves maximal diversity with an expected runtime of $O(\mu^2 m^4 \log(m))$ for the small gap case (where the population size $\mu$ is less than the difference in the sizes of the bipartite partitions) and $O(\mu^2 m^2 \log(m))$ otherwise. For paths, we establish an upper runtime bound of $O(\mu^3 m^3)$. The $2P-EA_D$ displays stronger performance, with bounds of $O(\mu^2 m^2 \log(m))$ for the small gap case, $O(\mu^2 n^2 \log(n))$ otherwise, and $O(\mu^3 m^2)$ for paths. Here, $n$ represents the total number of vertices and $m$ the number of edges. Our empirical studies, which examine the scaling behavior with respect to $m$ and $\mu$, complement these theoretical insights and suggest potential for further refinement of the runtime bounds.

We provide a preliminary study on utilizing GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) to accelerate computation for three simulation optimization tasks with either first-order or second-order algorithms. Compared to the implementation using only CPU (Central Processing Unit), the GPU implementation benefits from computational advantages of parallel processing for large-scale matrices and vectors operations. Numerical experiments demonstrate computational advantages of utilizing GPU implementation in simulation optimization problems, and show that such advantage comparatively further increase as the problem scale increases.

Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.

In this paper, we propose a novel Feature Decomposition and Reconstruction Learning (FDRL) method for effective facial expression recognition. We view the expression information as the combination of the shared information (expression similarities) across different expressions and the unique information (expression-specific variations) for each expression. More specifically, FDRL mainly consists of two crucial networks: a Feature Decomposition Network (FDN) and a Feature Reconstruction Network (FRN). In particular, FDN first decomposes the basic features extracted from a backbone network into a set of facial action-aware latent features to model expression similarities. Then, FRN captures the intra-feature and inter-feature relationships for latent features to characterize expression-specific variations, and reconstructs the expression feature. To this end, two modules including an intra-feature relation modeling module and an inter-feature relation modeling module are developed in FRN. Experimental results on both the in-the-lab databases (including CK+, MMI, and Oulu-CASIA) and the in-the-wild databases (including RAF-DB and SFEW) show that the proposed FDRL method consistently achieves higher recognition accuracy than several state-of-the-art methods. This clearly highlights the benefit of feature decomposition and reconstruction for classifying expressions.

Translational distance-based knowledge graph embedding has shown progressive improvements on the link prediction task, from TransE to the latest state-of-the-art RotatE. However, N-1, 1-N and N-N predictions still remain challenging. In this work, we propose a novel translational distance-based approach for knowledge graph link prediction. The proposed method includes two-folds, first we extend the RotatE from 2D complex domain to high dimension space with orthogonal transforms to model relations for better modeling capacity. Second, the graph context is explicitly modeled via two directed context representations. These context representations are used as part of the distance scoring function to measure the plausibility of the triples during training and inference. The proposed approach effectively improves prediction accuracy on the difficult N-1, 1-N and N-N cases for knowledge graph link prediction task. The experimental results show that it achieves better performance on two benchmark data sets compared to the baseline RotatE, especially on data set (FB15k-237) with many high in-degree connection nodes.

Incompleteness is a common problem for existing knowledge graphs (KGs), and the completion of KG which aims to predict links between entities is challenging. Most existing KG completion methods only consider the direct relation between nodes and ignore the relation paths which contain useful information for link prediction. Recently, a few methods take relation paths into consideration but pay less attention to the order of relations in paths which is important for reasoning. In addition, these path-based models always ignore nonlinear contributions of path features for link prediction. To solve these problems, we propose a novel KG completion method named OPTransE. Instead of embedding both entities of a relation into the same latent space as in previous methods, we project the head entity and the tail entity of each relation into different spaces to guarantee the order of relations in the path. Meanwhile, we adopt a pooling strategy to extract nonlinear and complex features of different paths to further improve the performance of link prediction. Experimental results on two benchmark datasets show that the proposed model OPTransE performs better than state-of-the-art methods.