We investigate the use of a stratified sampling approach for LIME Image, a popular model-agnostic explainable AI method for computer vision tasks, in order to reduce the artifacts generated by typical Monte Carlo sampling. Such artifacts are due to the undersampling of the dependent variable in the synthetic neighborhood around the image being explained, which may result in inadequate explanations due to the impossibility of fitting a linear regressor on the sampled data. We then highlight a connection with the Shapley theory, where similar arguments about undersampling and sample relevance were suggested in the past. We derive all the formulas and adjustment factors required for an unbiased stratified sampling estimator. Experiments show the efficacy of the proposed approach.
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Bayesian Federated Learning (FL) has been recently introduced to provide well-calibrated Machine Learning (ML) models quantifying the uncertainty of their predictions. Despite their advantages compared to frequentist FL setups, Bayesian FL tools implemented over decentralized networks are subject to high communication costs due to the iterated exchange of local posterior distributions among cooperating devices. Therefore, this paper proposes a communication-efficient decentralized Bayesian FL policy to reduce the communication overhead without sacrificing final learning accuracy and calibration. The proposed method integrates compression policies and allows devices to perform multiple optimization steps before sending the local posterior distributions. We integrate the developed tool in an Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) use case where collaborating nodes equipped with autonomous radar sensors are tasked to reliably localize human operators in a workplace shared with robots. Numerical results show that the developed approach obtains highly accurate yet well-calibrated ML models compatible with the ones provided by conventional (uncompressed) Bayesian FL tools while substantially decreasing the communication overhead (i.e., up to 99%). Furthermore, the proposed approach is advantageous when compared with state-of-the-art compressed frequentist FL setups in terms of calibration, especially when the statistical distribution of the testing dataset changes.
The objective of single image dehazing is to restore hazy images and produce clear, high-quality visuals. Traditional convolutional models struggle with long-range dependencies due to their limited receptive field size. While Transformers excel at capturing such dependencies, their quadratic computational complexity in relation to feature map resolution makes them less suitable for pixel-to-pixel dense prediction tasks. Moreover, fixed kernels or tokens in most models do not adapt well to varying blur sizes, resulting in suboptimal dehazing performance. In this study, we introduce a novel dehazing network based on Parallel Stripe Cross Attention (PCSA) with a multi-scale strategy. PCSA efficiently integrates long-range dependencies by simultaneously capturing horizontal and vertical relationships, allowing each pixel to capture contextual cues from an expanded spatial domain. To handle different sizes and shapes of blurs flexibly, We employs a channel-wise design with varying convolutional kernel sizes and strip lengths in each PCSA to capture context information at different scales.Additionally, we incorporate a softmax-based adaptive weighting mechanism within PCSA to prioritize and leverage more critical features.
We propose the characteristic generator, a novel one-step generative model that combines the efficiency of sampling in Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with the stable performance of flow-based models. Our model is driven by characteristics, along which the probability density transport can be described by ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Specifically, We estimate the velocity field through nonparametric regression and utilize Euler method to solve the probability flow ODE, generating a series of discrete approximations to the characteristics. We then use a deep neural network to fit these characteristics, ensuring a one-step mapping that effectively pushes the prior distribution towards the target distribution. In the theoretical aspect, we analyze the errors in velocity matching, Euler discretization, and characteristic fitting to establish a non-asymptotic convergence rate for the characteristic generator in 2-Wasserstein distance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first thorough analysis for simulation-free one step generative models. Additionally, our analysis refines the error analysis of flow-based generative models in prior works. We apply our method on both synthetic and real datasets, and the results demonstrate that the characteristic generator achieves high generation quality with just a single evaluation of neural network.
Traffic pattern prediction has emerged as a promising approach for efficiently managing and mitigating the impacts of event-driven bursty traffic in massive machine-type communication (mMTC) networks. However, achieving accurate predictions of bursty traffic remains a non-trivial task due to the inherent randomness of events, and these challenges intensify within live network environments. Consequently, there is a compelling imperative to design a lightweight and agile framework capable of assimilating continuously collected data from the network and accurately forecasting bursty traffic in mMTC networks. This paper addresses these challenges by presenting a machine learning-based framework tailored for forecasting bursty traffic in multi-channel slotted ALOHA networks. The proposed machine learning network comprises long-term short-term memory (LSTM) and a DenseNet with feed-forward neural network (FFNN) layers, where the residual connections enhance the training ability of the machine learning network in capturing complicated patterns. Furthermore, we develop a new low-complexity online prediction algorithm that updates the states of the LSTM network by leveraging frequently collected data from the mMTC network. Simulation results and complexity analysis demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithm in terms of both accuracy and complexity, making it well-suited for time-critical live scenarios. We evaluate the performance of the proposed framework in a network with a single base station and thousands of devices organized into groups with distinct traffic-generating characteristics. Comprehensive evaluations and simulations indicate that our proposed machine learning approach achieves a remarkable $52\%$ higher accuracy in long-term predictions compared to traditional methods, without imposing additional processing load on the system.
We introduce Probabilistic Regular Expressions (PRE), a probabilistic analogue of regular expressions denoting probabilistic languages in which every word is assigned a probability of being generated. We present and prove the completeness of an inference system for reasoning about probabilistic language equivalence of PRE based on Salomaa's axiomatisation of Kleene Algebra.
Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular and powerful tool for estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, classical approaches rely on strong assumptions such as the $\textit{exclusion criterion}$, which states that instrumental effects must be entirely mediated by treatments. This assumption often fails in practice. When IV methods are improperly applied to data that do not meet the exclusion criterion, estimated causal effects may be badly biased. In this work, we propose a novel solution that provides $\textit{partial}$ identification in linear systems given a set of $\textit{leaky instruments}$, which are allowed to violate the exclusion criterion to some limited degree. We derive a convex optimization objective that provides provably sharp bounds on the average treatment effect under some common forms of information leakage, and implement inference procedures to quantify the uncertainty of resulting estimates. We demonstrate our method in a set of experiments with simulated data, where it performs favorably against the state of the art. An accompanying $\texttt{R}$ package, $\texttt{leakyIV}$, is available from $\texttt{CRAN}$.
We propose a modified density estimation problem that is highly effective for detecting anomalies in tabular data. Our approach assumes that the density function is relatively stable (with lower variance) around normal samples. We have verified this hypothesis empirically using a wide range of real-world data. Then, we present a variance-stabilized density estimation problem for maximizing the likelihood of the observed samples while minimizing the variance of the density around normal samples. To obtain a reliable anomaly detector, we introduce a spectral ensemble of autoregressive models for learning the variance-stabilized distribution. We have conducted an extensive benchmark with 52 datasets, demonstrating that our method leads to state-of-the-art results while alleviating the need for data-specific hyperparameter tuning. Finally, we have used an ablation study to demonstrate the importance of each of the proposed components, followed by a stability analysis evaluating the robustness of our model.
Causality can be described in terms of a structural causal model (SCM) that carries information on the variables of interest and their mechanistic relations. For most processes of interest the underlying SCM will only be partially observable, thus causal inference tries to leverage any exposed information. Graph neural networks (GNN) as universal approximators on structured input pose a viable candidate for causal learning, suggesting a tighter integration with SCM. To this effect we present a theoretical analysis from first principles that establishes a novel connection between GNN and SCM while providing an extended view on general neural-causal models. We then establish a new model class for GNN-based causal inference that is necessary and sufficient for causal effect identification. Our empirical illustration on simulations and standard benchmarks validate our theoretical proofs.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
Embedding models for deterministic Knowledge Graphs (KG) have been extensively studied, with the purpose of capturing latent semantic relations between entities and incorporating the structured knowledge into machine learning. However, there are many KGs that model uncertain knowledge, which typically model the inherent uncertainty of relations facts with a confidence score, and embedding such uncertain knowledge represents an unresolved challenge. The capturing of uncertain knowledge will benefit many knowledge-driven applications such as question answering and semantic search by providing more natural characterization of the knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertain KG embedding model UKGE, which aims to preserve both structural and uncertainty information of relation facts in the embedding space. Unlike previous models that characterize relation facts with binary classification techniques, UKGE learns embeddings according to the confidence scores of uncertain relation facts. To further enhance the precision of UKGE, we also introduce probabilistic soft logic to infer confidence scores for unseen relation facts during training. We propose and evaluate two variants of UKGE based on different learning objectives. Experiments are conducted on three real-world uncertain KGs via three tasks, i.e. confidence prediction, relation fact ranking, and relation fact classification. UKGE shows effectiveness in capturing uncertain knowledge by achieving promising results on these tasks, and consistently outperforms baselines on these tasks.
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