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Image-based precision medicine aims to personalize treatment decisions based on an individual's unique imaging features so as to improve their clinical outcome. Machine learning frameworks that integrate uncertainty estimation as part of their treatment recommendations would be safer and more reliable. However, little work has been done in adapting uncertainty estimation techniques and validation metrics for precision medicine. In this paper, we use Bayesian deep learning for estimating the posterior distribution over factual and counterfactual outcomes on several treatments. This allows for estimating the uncertainty for each treatment option and for the individual treatment effects (ITE) between any two treatments. We train and evaluate this model to predict future new and enlarging T2 lesion counts on a large, multi-center dataset of MR brain images of patients with multiple sclerosis, exposed to several treatments during randomized controlled trials. We evaluate the correlation of the uncertainty estimate with the factual error, and, given the lack of ground truth counterfactual outcomes, demonstrate how uncertainty for the ITE prediction relates to bounds on the ITE error. Lastly, we demonstrate how knowledge of uncertainty could modify clinical decision-making to improve individual patient and clinical trial outcomes.

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We propose the geometry-informed neural operator (GINO), a highly efficient approach to learning the solution operator of large-scale partial differential equations with varying geometries. GINO uses a signed distance function and point-cloud representations of the input shape and neural operators based on graph and Fourier architectures to learn the solution operator. The graph neural operator handles irregular grids and transforms them into and from regular latent grids on which Fourier neural operator can be efficiently applied. GINO is discretization-convergent, meaning the trained model can be applied to arbitrary discretization of the continuous domain and it converges to the continuum operator as the discretization is refined. To empirically validate the performance of our method on large-scale simulation, we generate the industry-standard aerodynamics dataset of 3D vehicle geometries with Reynolds numbers as high as five million. For this large-scale 3D fluid simulation, numerical methods are expensive to compute surface pressure. We successfully trained GINO to predict the pressure on car surfaces using only five hundred data points. The cost-accuracy experiments show a $26,000 \times$ speed-up compared to optimized GPU-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulators on computing the drag coefficient. When tested on new combinations of geometries and boundary conditions (inlet velocities), GINO obtains a one-fourth reduction in error rate compared to deep neural network approaches.

Precision medicine is an approach for disease treatment that defines treatment strategies based on the individual characteristics of the patients. Motivated by an open problem in cancer genomics, we develop a novel model that flexibly clusters patients with similar predictive characteristics and similar treatment responses; this approach identifies, via predictive inference, which one among a set of treatments is better suited for a new patient. The proposed method is fully model-based, avoiding uncertainty underestimation attained when treatment assignment is performed by adopting heuristic clustering procedures, and belongs to the class of product partition models with covariates, here extended to include the cohesion induced by the Normalized Generalized Gamma process. The method performs particularly well in scenarios characterized by considerable heterogeneity of the predictive covariates in simulation studies. A cancer genomics case study illustrates the potential benefits in terms of treatment response yielded by the proposed approach. Finally, being model-based, the approach allows estimating clusters' specific response probabilities and then identifying patients more likely to benefit from personalized treatment.

We propose a novel methodology to define assistance systems that rely on information fusion to combine different sources of information while providing an assessment. The main contribution of this paper is providing a general framework for the fusion of n number of information sources using the evidence theory. The fusion provides a more robust prediction and an associated uncertainty that can be used to assess the prediction likeliness. Moreover, we provide a methodology for the information fusion of two primary sources: an ensemble classifier based on machine data and an expert-centered model. We demonstrate the information fusion approach using data from an industrial setup, which rounds up the application part of this research. Furthermore, we address the problem of data drift by proposing a methodology to update the data-based models using an evidence theory approach. We validate the approach using the Benchmark Tennessee Eastman while doing an ablation study of the model update parameters.

We propose a new parameter-adaptive uncertainty-penalized Bayesian information criterion (UBIC) to prioritize the parsimonious partial differential equation (PDE) that sufficiently governs noisy spatial-temporal observed data with few reliable terms. Since the naive use of the BIC for model selection has been known to yield an undesirable overfitted PDE, the UBIC penalizes the found PDE not only by its complexity but also the quantified uncertainty, derived from the model supports' coefficient of variation in a probabilistic view. We also introduce physics-informed neural network learning as a simulation-based approach to further validate the selected PDE flexibly against the other discovered PDE. Numerical results affirm the successful application of the UBIC in identifying the true governing PDE. Additionally, we reveal an interesting effect of denoising the observed data on improving the trade-off between the BIC score and model complexity. Code is available at //github.com/Pongpisit-Thanasutives/UBIC.

Medical image segmentation methods often rely on fully supervised approaches to achieve excellent performance, which is contingent upon having an extensive set of labeled images for training. However, annotating medical images is both expensive and time-consuming. Semi-supervised learning offers a solution by leveraging numerous unlabeled images alongside a limited set of annotated ones. In this paper, we introduce a semi-supervised medical image segmentation method based on the mean-teacher model, referred to as Dual-Decoder Consistency via Pseudo-Labels Guided Data Augmentation (DCPA). This method combines consistency regularization, pseudo-labels, and data augmentation to enhance the efficacy of semi-supervised segmentation. Firstly, the proposed model comprises both student and teacher models with a shared encoder and two distinct decoders employing different up-sampling strategies. Minimizing the output discrepancy between decoders enforces the generation of consistent representations, serving as regularization during student model training. Secondly, we introduce mixup operations to blend unlabeled data with labeled data, creating mixed data and thereby achieving data augmentation. Lastly, pseudo-labels are generated by the teacher model and utilized as labels for mixed data to compute unsupervised loss. We compare the segmentation results of the DCPA model with six state-of-the-art semi-supervised methods on three publicly available medical datasets. Beyond classical 10\% and 20\% semi-supervised settings, we investigate performance with less supervision (5\% labeled data). Experimental outcomes demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms existing semi-supervised medical image segmentation methods across the three semi-supervised settings.

The assessment of the well-being of the peripheral auditory nerve system in individuals experiencing hearing impairment is conducted through auditory brainstem response (ABR) testing. Audiologists assess and document the results of the ABR test. They interpret the findings and assign labels to them using reference-based markers like peak latency, waveform morphology, amplitude, and other relevant factors. Inaccurate assessment of ABR tests may lead to incorrect judgments regarding the integrity of the auditory nerve system; therefore, proper Hearing Loss (HL) diagnosis and analysis are essential. To identify and assess ABR automation while decreasing the possibility of human error, machine learning methods, notably deep learning, may be an appropriate option. To address these issues, this study proposed deep-learning models using the transfer-learning (TL) approach to extract features from ABR testing and diagnose HL using support vector machines (SVM). Pre-trained convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures like AlexNet, DenseNet, GoogleNet, InceptionResNetV2, InceptionV3, MobileNetV2, NASNetMobile, ResNet18, ResNet50, ResNet101, ShuffleNet, and SqueezeNet are used to extract features from the collected ABR reported images dataset in the proposed model. It has been decided to use six measures accuracy, precision, recall, geometric mean (GM), standard deviation (SD), and area under the ROC curve to measure the effectiveness of the proposed model. According to experimental findings, the ShuffleNet and ResNet50 models' TL is effective for ABR to diagnose HL using an SVM classifier, with a high accuracy rate of 95% when using the 5-fold cross-validation method.

Advances in artificial intelligence often stem from the development of new environments that abstract real-world situations into a form where research can be done conveniently. This paper contributes such an environment based on ideas inspired by elementary Microeconomics. Agents learn to produce resources in a spatially complex world, trade them with one another, and consume those that they prefer. We show that the emergent production, consumption, and pricing behaviors respond to environmental conditions in the directions predicted by supply and demand shifts in Microeconomics. We also demonstrate settings where the agents' emergent prices for goods vary over space, reflecting the local abundance of goods. After the price disparities emerge, some agents then discover a niche of transporting goods between regions with different prevailing prices -- a profitable strategy because they can buy goods where they are cheap and sell them where they are expensive. Finally, in a series of ablation experiments, we investigate how choices in the environmental rewards, bartering actions, agent architecture, and ability to consume tradable goods can either aid or inhibit the emergence of this economic behavior. This work is part of the environment development branch of a research program that aims to build human-like artificial general intelligence through multi-agent interactions in simulated societies. By exploring which environment features are needed for the basic phenomena of elementary microeconomics to emerge automatically from learning, we arrive at an environment that differs from those studied in prior multi-agent reinforcement learning work along several dimensions. For example, the model incorporates heterogeneous tastes and physical abilities, and agents negotiate with one another as a grounded form of communication.

Decision-making algorithms are being used in important decisions, such as who should be enrolled in health care programs and be hired. Even though these systems are currently deployed in high-stakes scenarios, many of them cannot explain their decisions. This limitation has prompted the Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) initiative, which aims to make algorithms explainable to comply with legal requirements, promote trust, and maintain accountability. This paper questions whether and to what extent explainability can help solve the responsibility issues posed by autonomous AI systems. We suggest that XAI systems that provide post-hoc explanations could be seen as blameworthy agents, obscuring the responsibility of developers in the decision-making process. Furthermore, we argue that XAI could result in incorrect attributions of responsibility to vulnerable stakeholders, such as those who are subjected to algorithmic decisions (i.e., patients), due to a misguided perception that they have control over explainable algorithms. This conflict between explainability and accountability can be exacerbated if designers choose to use algorithms and patients as moral and legal scapegoats. We conclude with a set of recommendations for how to approach this tension in the socio-technical process of algorithmic decision-making and a defense of hard regulation to prevent designers from escaping responsibility.

Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.

Human doctors with well-structured medical knowledge can diagnose a disease merely via a few conversations with patients about symptoms. In contrast, existing knowledge-grounded dialogue systems often require a large number of dialogue instances to learn as they fail to capture the correlations between different diseases and neglect the diagnostic experience shared among them. To address this issue, we propose a more natural and practical paradigm, i.e., low-resource medical dialogue generation, which can transfer the diagnostic experience from source diseases to target ones with a handful of data for adaptation. It is capitalized on a commonsense knowledge graph to characterize the prior disease-symptom relations. Besides, we develop a Graph-Evolving Meta-Learning (GEML) framework that learns to evolve the commonsense graph for reasoning disease-symptom correlations in a new disease, which effectively alleviates the needs of a large number of dialogues. More importantly, by dynamically evolving disease-symptom graphs, GEML also well addresses the real-world challenges that the disease-symptom correlations of each disease may vary or evolve along with more diagnostic cases. Extensive experiment results on the CMDD dataset and our newly-collected Chunyu dataset testify the superiority of our approach over state-of-the-art approaches. Besides, our GEML can generate an enriched dialogue-sensitive knowledge graph in an online manner, which could benefit other tasks grounded on knowledge graph.

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