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This study proposes a unified theory and statistical learning approach for traffic conflict detection, addressing the long-existing call for a consistent and comprehensive methodology to evaluate the collision risk emerged in road user interactions. The proposed theory assumes a context-dependent probabilistic collision risk and frames conflict detection as estimating the risk by statistical learning from observed proximities and contextual variables. Three primary tasks are integrated: representing interaction context from selected observables, inferring proximity distributions in different contexts, and applying extreme value theory to relate conflict intensity with conflict probability. As a result, this methodology is adaptable to various road users and interaction scenarios, enhancing its applicability without the need for pre-labelled conflict data. Demonstration experiments are executed using real-world trajectory data, with the unified metric trained on lane-changing interactions on German highways and applied to near-crash events from the 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study in the U.S. The experiments demonstrate the methodology's ability to provide effective collision warnings, generalise across different datasets and traffic environments, cover a broad range of conflicts, and deliver a long-tailed distribution of conflict intensity. This study contributes to traffic safety by offering a consistent and explainable methodology for conflict detection applicable across various scenarios. Its societal implications include enhanced safety evaluations of traffic infrastructures, more effective collision warning systems for autonomous and driving assistance systems, and a deeper understanding of road user behaviour in different traffic conditions, contributing to a potential reduction in accident rates and improving overall traffic safety.

We construct product formulas of orders 3 to 6 approximating the exponential of a commutator of two arbitrary operators in terms of the exponentials of the operators involved. The new schemes require a reduced number of exponentials and thus provide more efficient approximations than other previously published alternatives, whereas they can be still used as a starting methods of recursive procedures to increase the order of approximation.

We investigate the strong convergence properties of a proximal-gradient inertial algorithm with two Tikhonov regularization terms in connection to the minimization problem of the sum of a convex lower semi-continuous function $f$ and a smooth convex function $g$. For the appropriate setting of the parameters we provide strong convergence of the generated sequence $(x_k)$ to the minimum norm minimizer of our objective function $f+g$. Further, we obtain fast convergence to zero of the objective function values in a generated sequence but also for the discrete velocity and the sub-gradient of the objective function. We also show that for another settings of the parameters the optimal rate of order $\mathcal{O}(k^{-2})$ for the potential energy $(f+g)(x_k)-\min(f+g)$ can be obtained.

The discretization of fluid-poromechanics systems is typically highly demanding in terms of computational effort. This is particularly true for models of multiphysics flows in the brain, due to the geometrical complexity of the cerebral anatomy - requiring a very fine computational mesh for finite element discretization - and to the high number of variables involved. Indeed, this kind of problems can be modeled by a coupled system encompassing the Stokes equations for the cerebrospinal fluid in the brain ventricles and Multiple-network Poro-Elasticity (MPE) equations describing the brain tissue, the interstitial fluid, and the blood vascular networks at different space scales. The present work aims to rigorously derive a posteriori error estimates for the coupled Stokes-MPE problem, as a first step towards the design of adaptive refinement strategies or reduced order models to decrease the computational demand of the problem. Through numerical experiments, we verify the reliability and optimal efficiency of the proposed a posteriori estimator and identify the role of the different solution variables in its composition.

The broad class of multivariate unified skew-normal (SUN) distributions has been recently shown to possess important conjugacy properties. When used as priors for the vector of parameters in general probit, tobit, and multinomial probit models, these distributions yield posteriors that still belong to the SUN family. Although such a core result has led to important advancements in Bayesian inference and computation, its applicability beyond likelihoods associated with fully-observed, discretized, or censored realizations from multivariate Gaussian models remains yet unexplored. This article covers such an important gap by proving that the wider family of multivariate unified skew-elliptical (SUE) distributions, which extends SUNs to more general perturbations of elliptical densities, guarantees conjugacy for broader classes of models, beyond those relying on fully-observed, discretized or censored Gaussians. Such a result leverages the closure under linear combinations, conditioning and marginalization of SUE to prove that this family is conjugate to the likelihood induced by general multivariate regression models for fully-observed, censored or dichotomized realizations from skew-elliptical distributions. This advancement enlarges the set of models that enable conjugate Bayesian inference to general formulations arising from elliptical and skew-elliptical families, including the multivariate Student's t and skew-t, among others.

We prove the existence of signed combinatorial interpretations for several large families of structure constants. These families include standard bases of symmetric and quasisymmetric polynomials, as well as various bases in Schubert theory. The results are stated in the language of computational complexity, while the proofs are based on the effective M\"obius inversion.

We consider the problem of detecting gradual changes in the sequence of mean functions from a not necessarily stationary functional time series. Our approach is based on the maximum deviation (calculated over a given time interval) between a benchmark function and the mean functions at different time points. We speak of a gradual change of size $\Delta $, if this quantity exceeds a given threshold $\Delta>0$. For example, the benchmark function could represent an average of yearly temperature curves from the pre-industrial time, and we are interested in the question if the yearly temperature curves afterwards deviate from the pre-industrial average by more than $\Delta =1.5$ degrees Celsius, where the deviations are measured with respect to the sup-norm. Using Gaussian approximations for high-dimensional data we develop a test for hypotheses of this type and estimators for the time where a deviation of size larger than $\Delta$ appears for the first time. We prove the validity of our approach and illustrate the new methods by a simulation study and a data example, where we analyze yearly temperature curves at different stations in Australia.

A common method for estimating the Hessian operator from random samples on a low-dimensional manifold involves locally fitting a quadratic polynomial. Although widely used, it is unclear if this estimator introduces bias, especially in complex manifolds with boundaries and nonuniform sampling. Rigorous theoretical guarantees of its asymptotic behavior have been lacking. We show that, under mild conditions, this estimator asymptotically converges to the Hessian operator, with nonuniform sampling and curvature effects proving negligible, even near boundaries. Our analysis framework simplifies the intensive computations required for direct analysis.

We prove the convergence of a damped Newton's method for the nonlinear system resulting from a discretization of the second boundary value problem for the Monge-Ampere equation. The boundary condition is enforced through the use of the notion of asymptotic cone. The differential operator is discretized based on a discrete analogue of the subdifferential.

The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.