We consider the problem of selecting confounders for adjustment from a potentially large set of covariates, when estimating a causal effect. Recently, the high-dimensional Propensity Score (hdPS) method was developed for this task; hdPS ranks potential confounders by estimating an importance score for each variable and selects the top few variables. However, this ranking procedure is limited: it requires all variables to be binary. We propose an extension of the hdPS to general types of response and confounder variables. We further develop a group importance score, allowing us to rank groups of potential confounders. The main challenge is that our parameter requires either the propensity score or response model; both vulnerable to model misspecification. We propose a targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) which allows the use of nonparametric, machine learning tools for fitting these intermediate models. We establish asymptotic normality of our estimator, which consequently allows constructing confidence intervals. We complement our work with numerical studies on simulated and real data.
相關內容
This paper studies the problem of statistical inference for genetic relatedness between binary traits based on individual-level genome-wide association data. Specifically, under the high-dimensional logistic regression model, we define parameters characterizing the cross-trait genetic correlation, the genetic covariance and the trait-specific genetic variance. A novel weighted debiasing method is developed for the logistic Lasso estimator and computationally efficient debiased estimators are proposed. The rates of convergence for these estimators are studied and their asymptotic normality is established under mild conditions. Moreover, we construct confidence intervals and statistical tests for these parameters, and provide theoretical justifications for the methods, including the coverage probability and expected length of the confidence intervals, as well as the size and power of the proposed tests. Numerical studies are conducted under both model generated data and simulated genetic data to show the superiority of the proposed methods and their applicability to the analysis of real genetic data. Finally, by analyzing a real data set on autoimmune diseases, we demonstrate the ability to obtain novel insights about the shared genetic architecture between ten pediatric autoimmune diseases.
Multifidelity approximation is an important technique in scientific computation and simulation. In this paper, we introduce a bandit-learning approach for leveraging data of varying fidelities to achieve precise estimates of the parameters of interest. Under a linear model assumption, we formulate a multifidelity approximation as a modified stochastic bandit, and analyze the loss for a class of policies that uniformly explore each model before exploiting. Utilizing the estimated conditional mean-squared error, we propose a consistent algorithm, adaptive Explore-Then-Commit (AETC), and establish a corresponding trajectory-wise optimality result. These results are then extended to the case of vector-valued responses, where we demonstrate that the algorithm is efficient without the need to worry about estimating high-dimensional parameters. The main advantage of our approach is that we require neither hierarchical model structure nor \textit{a priori} knowledge of statistical information (e.g., correlations) about or between models. Instead, the AETC algorithm requires only knowledge of which model is a trusted high-fidelity model, along with (relative) computational cost estimates of querying each model. Numerical experiments are provided at the end to support our theoretical findings.
This paper is devoted to the numerical analysis of a piecewise constant discontinuous Galerkin method for time fractional subdiffusion problems. The regularity of weak solution is firstly established by using variational approach and Mittag-Leffler function. Then several optimal error estimates are derived with low regularity data. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to verify the theoretical results.
Panel data involving longitudinal measurements of the same set of participants taken over multiple time points is common in studies to understand childhood development and disease modeling. Deep hybrid models that marry the predictive power of neural networks with physical simulators such as differential equations, are starting to drive advances in such applications. The task of modeling not just the observations but the hidden dynamics that are captured by the measurements poses interesting statistical/computational questions. We propose a probabilistic model called ME-NODE to incorporate (fixed + random) mixed effects for analyzing such panel data. We show that our model can be derived using smooth approximations of SDEs provided by the Wong-Zakai theorem. We then derive Evidence Based Lower Bounds for ME-NODE, and develop (efficient) training algorithms using MC based sampling methods and numerical ODE solvers. We demonstrate ME-NODE's utility on tasks spanning the spectrum from simulations and toy data to real longitudinal 3D imaging data from an Alzheimer's disease (AD) study, and study its performance in terms of accuracy of reconstruction for interpolation, uncertainty estimates and personalized prediction.
Normalizing Flows (NFs) are emerging as a powerful class of generative models, as they not only allow for efficient sampling, but also deliver, by construction, density estimation. They are of great potential usage in High Energy Physics (HEP), where complex high dimensional data and probability distributions are everyday's meal. However, in order to fully leverage the potential of NFs it is crucial to explore their robustness as data dimensionality increases. Thus, in this contribution, we discuss the performances of some of the most popular types of NFs on the market, on some toy data sets with increasing number of dimensions.
Observational studies can play a useful role in assessing the comparative effectiveness of competing treatments. In a clinical trial the randomization of participants to treatment and control groups generally results in well-balanced groups with respect to possible confounders, which makes the analysis straightforward. However, when analysing observational data, the potential for unmeasured confounding makes comparing treatment effects much more challenging. Causal inference methods such as the Instrumental Variable and Prior Even Rate Ratio approaches make it possible to circumvent the need to adjust for confounding factors that have not been measured in the data or measured with error. Direct confounder adjustment via multivariable regression and Propensity score matching also have considerable utility. Each method relies on a different set of assumptions and leverages different data. In this paper, we describe the assumptions of each method and assess the impact of violating these assumptions in a simulation study. We propose the prior outcome augmented Instrumental Variable method that leverages data from before and after treatment initiation, and is robust to the violation of key assumptions. Finally, we propose the use of a heterogeneity statistic to decide two or more estimates are statistically similar, taking into account their correlation. We illustrate our causal framework to assess the risk of genital infection in patients prescribed Sodium-glucose Co-transporter-2 inhibitors versus Dipeptidyl Peptidase-4 inhibitors as second-line treatment for type 2 diabets using observational data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.
This paper presents a novel probabilistic forecasting method called ensemble conformalized quantile regression (EnCQR). EnCQR constructs distribution-free and approximately marginally valid prediction intervals (PIs), is suitable for nonstationary and heteroscedastic time series data, and can be applied on top of any forecasting model, including deep learning architectures that are trained on long data sequences. EnCQR exploits a bootstrap ensemble estimator, which enables the use of conformal predictors for time series by removing the requirement of data exchangeability. The ensemble learners are implemented as generic machine learning algorithms performing quantile regression, which allow the length of the PIs to adapt to local variability in the data. In the experiments, we predict time series characterized by a different amount of heteroscedasticity. The results demonstrate that EnCQR outperforms models based only on quantile regression or conformal prediction, and it provides sharper, more informative, and valid PIs.
In this paper, we develop a novel high-dimensional regression inference procedure for high-frequency financial data. Unlike usual high-dimensional regression for low-frequency data, we need to additionally handle the time-varying coefficient problem. To accomplish this, we employ the Dantzig selection scheme and apply a debiasing scheme, which provides well-performing unbiased instantaneous coefficient estimators. With these schemes, we estimate the integrated coefficient, and to further account for the sparsity of the beta process, we apply thresholding schemes. We call this Thresholding dEbiased Dantzig Integrated Beta (TEDI Beta). We establish asymptotic properties of the proposed TEDI Beta estimator. In the empirical analysis, we apply the TEDI Beta procedure to analyzing high-dimensional factor models using high-frequency data.
Additive models play an essential role in studying non-linear relationships. Despite many recent advances in estimation, there is a lack of methods and theories for inference in high-dimensional additive models, including confidence interval construction and hypothesis testing. Motivated by inference for non-linear treatment effects, we consider the high-dimensional additive model and make inference for the derivative of the function of interest. We propose a novel decorrelated local linear estimator and establish its asymptotic normality. The main novelty is the construction of the decorrelation weights, which is instrumental in reducing the error inherited from estimating the nuisance functions in the high-dimensional additive model. We construct the confidence interval for the function derivative and conduct the related hypothesis testing. We demonstrate our proposed method over large-scale simulation studies and apply it to identify non-linear effects in the motif regression problem. Our proposed method is implemented in the R package \texttt{DLL} available from CRAN.
The construction of generalizable and transferable models is a fundamental goal of statistical learning. Learning with the multi-source data helps improve model generalizability and is integral to many important statistical problems, including group distributionally robust optimization, minimax group fairness, and maximin projection. This paper considers multiple high-dimensional regression models for the multi-source data. We introduce the covariate shift maximin effect as a group distributionally robust model. This robust model helps transfer the information from the multi-source data to the unlabelled target population. Statistical inference for the covariate shift maximin effect is challenging since its point estimator may have a non-standard limiting distribution. We devise a novel {\it DenseNet} sampling method to construct valid confidence intervals for the high-dimensional maximin effect. We show that our proposed confidence interval achieves the desired coverage level and attains a parametric length. Our proposed DenseNet sampling method and the related theoretical analysis are of independent interest in addressing other non-regular or non-standard inference problems. We demonstrate the proposed method over a large-scale simulation and genetic data on yeast colony growth under multiple environments.
小貼士
登錄享
相關主題
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191