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Causal inference on populations embedded in social networks poses technical challenges, since the typical no interference assumption may no longer hold. For instance, in the context of social research, the outcome of a study unit will likely be affected by an intervention or treatment received by close neighbors. While inverse probability-of-treatment weighted (IPW) estimators have been developed for this setting, they are often highly inefficient. In this work, we assume that the network is a union of disjoint components and propose doubly robust (DR) estimators combining models for treatment and outcome that are consistent and asymptotically normal if either model is correctly specified. We present empirical results that illustrate the DR property and the efficiency gain of DR over IPW estimators when both the outcome and treatment models are correctly specified. Simulations are conducted for networks with equal and unequal component sizes and outcome data with and without a multilevel structure. We apply these methods in an illustrative analysis using the Add Health network, examining the impact of maternal college education on adolescent school performance, both direct and indirect.

Aggregate measures of family planning are used to monitor demand for and usage of contraceptive methods in populations globally, for example as part of the FP2030 initiative. Family planning measures for low- and middle-income countries are typically based on data collected through cross-sectional household surveys. Recently proposed measures account for sexual activity through assessment of the distribution of time-between-sex (TBS) in the population of interest. In this paper, we propose a statistical approach to estimate the distribution of TBS using data typically available in low- and middle-income countries, while addressing two major challenges. The first challenge is that timing of sex information is typically limited to women's time-since-last-sex (TSLS) data collected in the cross-sectional survey. In our proposed approach, we adopt the current duration method to estimate the distribution of TBS using the available TSLS data, from which the frequency of sex at the population level can be derived. Furthermore, the observed TSLS data are subject to reporting issues because they can be reported in different units and may be rounded off. To apply the current duration approach and account for these data reporting issues, we develop a flexible Bayesian model, and provide a detailed technical description of the proposed modeling approach.

Differing from the well-developed horizontal object detection area whereby the computing-friendly IoU based loss is readily adopted and well fits with the detection metrics. In contrast, rotation detectors often involve a more complicated loss based on SkewIoU which is unfriendly to gradient-based training. In this paper, we propose an effective approximate SkewIoU loss based on Gaussian modeing and Kalman filter, which mainly consists of two items. The first term is a scale-insensitive center point loss, which is used to quickly get the center points between bounding boxes closer to assist the second term. In the distance-independent second term, Kalman filter is adopted to inherently mimic the mechanism of SkewIoU by its definition, and show its alignment with the SkewIoU loss at trend-level within a certain distance (i.e. within 9 pixels). This is in contrast to recent Gaussian modeling based rotation detectors e.g. GWD loss and KLD loss that involve a human-specified distribution distance metric which require additional hyperparameter tuning that vary across datasets and detectors. The resulting new loss called KFIoU loss is easier to implement and works better compared with exact SkewIoU loss, thanks to its full differentiability and ability to handle the non-overlapping cases. We further extend our technique to the 3-D case which also suffers from the same issues as 2-D detection. Extensive results on various public datasets (2-D/3-D, aerial/text/face images) with different base detectors show the effectiveness of our approach.

Online meta-learning has recently emerged as a marriage between batch meta-learning and online learning, for achieving the capability of quick adaptation on new tasks in a lifelong manner. However, most existing approaches focus on the restrictive setting where the distribution of the online tasks remains fixed with known task boundaries. In this work, we relax these assumptions and propose a novel algorithm for task-agnostic online meta-learning in non-stationary environments. More specifically, we first propose two simple but effective detection mechanisms of task switches and distribution shift based on empirical observations, which serve as a key building block for more elegant online model updates in our algorithm: the task switch detection mechanism allows reusing of the best model available for the current task at hand, and the distribution shift detection mechanism differentiates the meta model update in order to preserve the knowledge for in-distribution tasks and quickly learn the new knowledge for out-of-distribution tasks. In particular, our online meta model updates are based only on the current data, which eliminates the need of storing previous data as required in most existing methods. We further show that a sublinear task-averaged regret can be achieved for our algorithm under mild conditions. Empirical studies on three different benchmarks clearly demonstrate the significant advantage of our algorithm over related baseline approaches.

Using gradient descent (GD) with fixed or decaying step-size is a standard practice in unconstrained optimization problems. However, when the loss function is only locally convex, such a step-size schedule artificially slows GD down as it cannot explore the flat curvature of the loss function. To overcome that issue, we propose to exponentially increase the step-size of the GD algorithm. Under homogeneous assumptions on the loss function, we demonstrate that the iterates of the proposed \emph{exponential step size gradient descent} (EGD) algorithm converge linearly to the optimal solution. Leveraging that optimization insight, we then consider using the EGD algorithm for solving parameter estimation under both regular and non-regular statistical models whose loss function becomes locally convex when the sample size goes to infinity. We demonstrate that the EGD iterates reach the final statistical radius within the true parameter after a logarithmic number of iterations, which is in stark contrast to a \emph{polynomial} number of iterations of the GD algorithm in non-regular statistical models. Therefore, the total computational complexity of the EGD algorithm is \emph{optimal} and exponentially cheaper than that of the GD for solving parameter estimation in non-regular statistical models while being comparable to that of the GD in regular statistical settings. To the best of our knowledge, it resolves a long-standing gap between statistical and algorithmic computational complexities of parameter estimation in non-regular statistical models. Finally, we provide targeted applications of the general theory to several classes of statistical models, including generalized linear models with polynomial link functions and location Gaussian mixture models.

The Boolean Satisfiability (SAT) problem stands out as an attractive NP-complete problem in theoretic computer science and plays a central role in a broad spectrum of computing-related applications. Exploiting and tuning SAT solvers under numerous scenarios require massive high-quality industry-level SAT instances, which unfortunately are quite limited in the real world. To address the data insufficiency issue, in this paper, we propose W2SAT, a framework to generate SAT formulas by learning intrinsic structures and properties from given real-world/industrial instances in an implicit fashion. To this end, we introduce a novel SAT representation called Weighted Literal Incidence Graph (WLIG), which exhibits strong representation ability and generalizability against existing counterparts, and can be efficiently generated via a specialized learning-based graph generative model. Decoding from WLIGs into SAT problems is then modeled as finding overlapping cliques with a novel hill-climbing optimization method termed Optimal Weight Coverage (OWC). Experiments demonstrate the superiority of our WLIG-induced approach in terms of graph metrics, efficiency, and scalability in comparison to previous methods. Additionally, we discuss the limitations of graph-based SAT generation for real-world applications, especially when utilizing generated instances for SAT solver parameter-tuning, and pose some potential directions.

Classical quickest change detection algorithms require modeling pre-change and post-change distributions. Such an approach may not be feasible for various machine learning models because of the complexity of computing the explicit distributions. Additionally, these methods may suffer from a lack of robustness to model mismatch and noise. This paper develops a new variant of the classical Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) algorithm for the quickest change detection. This variant is based on Fisher divergence and the Hyv\"arinen score and is called the Score-based CUSUM (SCUSUM) algorithm. The SCUSUM algorithm allows the applications of change detection for unnormalized statistical models, i.e., models for which the probability density function contains an unknown normalization constant. The asymptotic optimality of the proposed algorithm is investigated by deriving expressions for average detection delay and the mean running time to a false alarm. Numerical results are provided to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm.

In this paper we consider change-points in multiple sequences with the objective of minimizing the estimation error of a sequence by making use of information from other sequences. This is in contrast to recent interest on change-points in multiple sequences where the focus is on detection of common change-points. We start with the canonical case of a single sequence with constant change-point intensities. We consider two measures of a change-point algorithm. The first is the probability of estimating the change-point with no error. The second is the expected distance between the true and estimated change-points. We provide a theoretical upper bound for the no error probability, and a lower bound for the expected distance, that must be satisfied by all algorithms. We propose a scan-CUSUM algorithm that achieves the no error upper bound and come close to the distance lower bound. We next consider the case of non-constant intensities and establish sharp conditions under which estimation error can go to zero. We propose an extension of the scan-CUSUM algorithm for a non-constant intensity function, and show that it achieves asymptotically zero error at the boundary of the zero-error regime. We illustrate an application of the scan-CUSUM algorithm on multiple sequences sharing an unknown, non-constant intensity function. We estimate the intensity function from the change-point profile likelihoods of all sequences and apply scan-CUSUM on the estimated intensity function.

The problem of generalization and transportation of treatment effect estimates from a study sample to a target population is central to empirical research and statistical methodology. In both randomized experiments and observational studies, weighting methods are often used with this objective. Traditional methods construct the weights by separately modeling the treatment assignment and study selection probabilities and then multiplying functions (e.g., inverses) of their estimates. In this work, we provide a justification and an implementation for weighting in a single step. We show a formal connection between this one-step method and inverse probability and inverse odds weighting. We demonstrate that the resulting estimator for the target average treatment effect is consistent, asymptotically Normal, multiply robust, and semiparametrically efficient. We evaluate the performance of the one-step estimator in a simulation study. We illustrate its use in a case study on the effects of physician racial diversity on preventive healthcare utilization among Black men in California. We provide R code implementing the methodology.

Small Area Estimation (SAE) models commonly assume Normal distribution or more generally exponential family. We propose a SAE unit-level model based on Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). GAMLSS completely release the exponential family distribution assumption and allow each parameter to depend on covariates. Besides, a bootstrap approach to estimate MSE is proposed. The performance of the proposed estimators is evaluated with model- and design-based simulations. Results show that the proposed redictor work better than the well-known EBLUP. The presented models are used to estimate the per-capita expenditure in small areas, based on the Italian data.