Given a dataset on actions and resulting long-term rewards, a direct estimation approach fits value functions that minimize prediction error on the training data. Temporal difference learning (TD) methods instead fit value functions by minimizing the degree of temporal inconsistency between estimates made at successive time-steps. Focusing on finite state Markov chains, we provide a crisp asymptotic theory of the statistical advantages of this approach. First, we show that an intuitive inverse trajectory pooling coefficient completely characterizes the percent reduction in mean-squared error of value estimates. Depending on problem structure, the reduction could be enormous or nonexistent. Next, we prove that there can be dramatic improvements in estimates of the difference in value-to-go for two states: TD's errors are bounded in terms of a novel measure - the problem's trajectory crossing time - which can be much smaller than the problem's time horizon.
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Generalized linear mixed models are powerful tools for analyzing clustered data, where the unknown parameters are classically (and most commonly) estimated by the maximum likelihood and restricted maximum likelihood procedures. However, since the likelihood based procedures are known to be highly sensitive to outliers, M-estimators have become popular as a means to obtain robust estimates under possible data contamination. In this paper, we prove that, for sufficiently smooth general loss functions defining the M-estimators in generalized linear mixed models, the tail probability of the deviation between the estimated and the true regression coefficients have an exponential bound. This implies an exponential rate of consistency of these M-estimators under appropriate assumptions, generalizing the existing exponential consistency results from univariate to multivariate responses. We have illustrated this theoretical result further for the special examples of the maximum likelihood estimator and the robust minimum density power divergence estimator, a popular example of model-based M-estimators, in the settings of linear and logistic mixed models, comparing it with the empirical rate of convergence through simulation studies.
In this short note, I derive the Bell-CHSH inequalities as an elementary result in the present-day theory of statistical causality based on graphical models or Bayes' nets, defined in terms of DAGs (Directed Acyclic Graphs) representing direct statistical causal influences between a number of observed and unobserved random variables. I show how spatio-temporal constraints in loophole-free Bell experiments, and natural classical statistical causality considerations, lead to Bell's notion of local hidden variables, and thence to the CHSH inequalities. The word "local" applies to the way that the chosen settings influence the observed outcomes. The case of contextual setting-dependent hidden variables (thought of as being located in the measurement devices and dependent on the measurement settings) is automatically covered, despite recent claims that Bell's conclusions can be circumvented in this way.
With the rising complexity of numerous novel applications that serve our modern society comes the strong need to design efficient computing platforms. Designing efficient hardware is, however, a complex multi-objective problem that deals with multiple parameters and their interactions. Given that there are a large number of parameters and objectives involved in hardware design, synthesizing all possible combinations is not a feasible method to find the optimal solution. One promising approach to tackle this problem is statistical modeling of a desired hardware performance. Here, we propose a model-based active learning approach to solve this problem. Our proposed method uses Bayesian models to characterize various aspects of hardware performance. We also use transfer learning and Gaussian regression bootstrapping techniques in conjunction with active learning to create more accurate models. Our proposed statistical modeling method provides hardware models that are sufficiently accurate to perform design space exploration as well as performance prediction simultaneously. We use our proposed method to perform design space exploration and performance prediction for various hardware setups, such as micro-architecture design and OpenCL kernels for FPGA targets. Our experiments show that the number of samples required to create performance models significantly reduces while maintaining the predictive power of our proposed statistical models. For instance, in our performance prediction setting, the proposed method needs 65% fewer samples to create the model, and in the design space exploration setting, our proposed method can find the best parameter settings by exploring less than 50 samples.
Technology adoption research aims to determine the reasons why and how individuals, corporations, and industries start using new technology. Furthermore, technology adoption itself is decomposed into underlying sub-processes which are characterized by a finite number of sequential states in order to capture its evolutionary nature. Building upon that, in this paper a technology adoption index is being constructed that allows for statistical testing. This new framework is flexible with respect to the number of underlying models, and accounts for nonlinearities within the evolution of technology adoption. It can be considered as novel because it gives opportunity to a quantitative analysis of technology adoption that has not existed before. Subsequently, this framework is applied for an integrated model of technology adoption.
Safety is critical in robotic tasks. Energy function based methods have been introduced to address the problem. To ensure safety in the presence of control limits, we need to design an energy function that results in persistently feasible safe control at all system states. However, designing such an energy function for high-dimensional nonlinear systems remains challenging. Considering the fact that there are redundant dynamics in high dimensional systems with respect to the safety specifications, this paper proposes a novel approach called abstract safe control. We propose a system abstraction method that enables the design of energy functions on a low-dimensional model. Then we can synthesize the energy function with respect to the low-dimensional model to ensure persistent feasibility. The resulting safe controller can be directly transferred to other systems with the same abstraction, e.g., when a robot arm holds different tools. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a 7-DoF robot arm (14 states) both in simulation and real-world. Our method always finds feasible control and achieves zero safety violations in 500 trials on 5 different systems.
Temporal data, representing chronological observations of complex systems, has always been a typical data structure that can be widely generated by many domains, such as industry, medicine and finance. Analyzing this type of data is extremely valuable for various applications. Thus, different temporal data analysis tasks, eg, classification, clustering and prediction, have been proposed in the past decades. Among them, causal discovery, learning the causal relations from temporal data, is considered an interesting yet critical task and has attracted much research attention. Existing casual discovery works can be divided into two highly correlated categories according to whether the temporal data is calibrated, ie, multivariate time series casual discovery, and event sequence casual discovery. However, most previous surveys are only focused on the time series casual discovery and ignore the second category. In this paper, we specify the correlation between the two categories and provide a systematical overview of existing solutions. Furthermore, we provide public datasets, evaluation metrics and new perspectives for temporal data casual discovery.
Interleaving is an online evaluation approach for information retrieval systems that compares the effectiveness of ranking functions in interpreting the users' implicit feedback. Previous work such as Hofmann et al (2011) has evaluated the most promising interleaved methods at the time, on uniform distributions of queries. In the real world, ordinarily, there is an unbalanced distribution of repeated queries that follows a long-tailed users' search demand curve. The more a query is executed, by different users (or in different sessions), the higher the probability of collecting implicit feedback (interactions/clicks) on the related search results. This paper first aims to replicate the Team Draft Interleaving accuracy evaluation on uniform query distributions and then focuses on assessing how this method generalizes to long-tailed real-world scenarios. The reproducibility work raised interesting considerations on how the winning ranking function for each query should impact the overall winner for the entire evaluation. Based on what was observed, we propose that not all the queries should contribute to the final decision in equal proportion. As a result of these insights, we designed two variations of the $\Delta_{AB}$ score winner estimator that assign to each query a credit based on statistical hypothesis testing. To replicate, reproduce and extend the original work, we have developed from scratch a system that simulates a search engine and users' interactions from datasets from the industry. Our experiments confirm our intuition and show that our methods are promising in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, and robustness to noise.
The light and soft characteristics of Buoyancy Assisted Lightweight Legged Unit (BALLU) robots have a great potential to provide intrinsically safe interactions in environments involving humans, unlike many heavy and rigid robots. However, their unique and sensitive dynamics impose challenges to obtaining robust control policies in the real world. In this work, we demonstrate robust sim-to-real transfer of control policies on the BALLU robots via system identification and our novel residual physics learning method, Environment Mimic (EnvMimic). First, we model the nonlinear dynamics of the actuators by collecting hardware data and optimizing the simulation parameters. Rather than relying on standard supervised learning formulations, we utilize deep reinforcement learning to train an external force policy to match real-world trajectories, which enables us to model residual physics with greater fidelity. We analyze the improved simulation fidelity by comparing the simulation trajectories against the real-world ones. We finally demonstrate that the improved simulator allows us to learn better walking and turning policies that can be successfully deployed on the hardware of BALLU.
Classic algorithms and machine learning systems like neural networks are both abundant in everyday life. While classic computer science algorithms are suitable for precise execution of exactly defined tasks such as finding the shortest path in a large graph, neural networks allow learning from data to predict the most likely answer in more complex tasks such as image classification, which cannot be reduced to an exact algorithm. To get the best of both worlds, this thesis explores combining both concepts leading to more robust, better performing, more interpretable, more computationally efficient, and more data efficient architectures. The thesis formalizes the idea of algorithmic supervision, which allows a neural network to learn from or in conjunction with an algorithm. When integrating an algorithm into a neural architecture, it is important that the algorithm is differentiable such that the architecture can be trained end-to-end and gradients can be propagated back through the algorithm in a meaningful way. To make algorithms differentiable, this thesis proposes a general method for continuously relaxing algorithms by perturbing variables and approximating the expectation value in closed form, i.e., without sampling. In addition, this thesis proposes differentiable algorithms, such as differentiable sorting networks, differentiable renderers, and differentiable logic gate networks. Finally, this thesis presents alternative training strategies for learning with algorithms.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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