Insurers increasingly use AI. We distinguish two situations in which insurers use AI: (i) data-intensive underwriting, and (ii) behaviour-based insurance. (i) First, insurers can use AI for data analysis to assess risks: data-intensive underwriting. Underwriting is, in short, calculating risks and amending the insurance premium accordingly. (ii) Second, insurers can use AI to monitor the behaviour of consumers in real-time: behaviour-based insurance. For example, some car insurers give a discount if a consumer agrees to being tracked by the insurer and drives safely. While the two trends bring many advantages, they may also have discriminatory effects. This paper focuses on the following question. Which discrimination-related effects may occur if insurers use data-intensive underwriting and behaviour-based insurance? We focus on two types of discrimination-related effects: discrimination and other unfair differentiation. (i) Discrimination harms certain groups who are protected by non-discrimination law, for instance people with certain ethnicities. (ii) Unfair differentiation does not harm groups that are protected by non-discrimination law, but it does seem unfair. We introduce four factors to consider when assessing the fairness of insurance practices. The paper builds on literature from various disciplines including law, philosophy, and computer science.
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We prove that QMA where the verifier may also make a single non-collapsing measurement is equal to NEXP, resolving an open question of Aaronson. We show this is a corollary to a modified proof of QMA+ = NEXP [arXiv:2306.13247]. At the core of many results inspired by Blier and Tapp [arXiv:0709.0738] is an unphysical property testing problem deciding whether a quantum state is close to an element of a fixed basis.
Covariate adjustment can improve precision in analyzing randomized experiments. With fully observed data, regression adjustment and propensity score weighting are asymptotically equivalent in improving efficiency over unadjusted analysis. When some outcomes are missing, we consider combining these two adjustment methods with inverse probability of observation weighting for handling missing outcomes, and show that the equivalence between the two methods breaks down. Regression adjustment no longer ensures efficiency gain over unadjusted analysis unless the true outcome model is linear in covariates or the outcomes are missing completely at random. Propensity score weighting, in contrast, still guarantees efficiency over unadjusted analysis, and including more covariates in adjustment never harms asymptotic efficiency. Moreover, we establish the value of using partially observed covariates to secure additional efficiency by the missingness indicator method, which imputes all missing covariates by zero and uses the union of the completed covariates and corresponding missingness indicators as the new, fully observed covariates. Based on these findings, we recommend using regression adjustment in combination with the missingness indicator method if the linear outcome model or missing complete at random assumption is plausible and using propensity score weighting with the missingness indicator method otherwise.
C-based interpreters such as CPython make extensive use of C "extension" code, which is opaque to static analysis tools and faster runtimes with JIT compilers, such as PyPy. Not only are the extensions opaque, but the interface between the dynamic language types and the C types can introduce impedance. We hypothesise that frequent calls to C extension code introduce significant overhead that is often unnecessary. We validate this hypothesis by introducing a simple technique, "typed methods", which allow selected C extension functions to have additional metadata attached to them in a backward-compatible way. This additional metadata makes it much easier for a JIT compiler (and as we show, even an interpreter!) to significantly reduce the call and return overhead. Although we have prototyped typed methods in PyPy, we suspect that the same technique is applicable to a wider variety of language runtimes and that the information can also be consumed by static analysis tooling.
Emotion datasets used for Speech Emotion Recognition (SER) often contain acted or elicited speech, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios. In this work, we used the Emotional Voice Messages (EMOVOME) database, including spontaneous voice messages from conversations of 100 Spanish speakers on a messaging app, labeled in continuous and discrete emotions by expert and non-expert annotators. We created speaker-independent SER models using the eGeMAPS features, transformer-based models and their combination. We compared the results with reference databases and analyzed the influence of annotators and gender fairness. The pre-trained Unispeech-L model and its combination with eGeMAPS achieved the highest results, with 61.64% and 55.57% Unweighted Accuracy (UA) for 3-class valence and arousal prediction respectively, a 10% improvement over baseline models. For the emotion categories, 42.58% UA was obtained. EMOVOME performed lower than the acted RAVDESS database. The elicited IEMOCAP database also outperformed EMOVOME in the prediction of emotion categories, while similar results were obtained in valence and arousal. Additionally, EMOVOME outcomes varied with annotator labels, showing superior results and better fairness when combining expert and non-expert annotations. This study significantly contributes to the evaluation of SER models in real-life situations, advancing in the development of applications for analyzing spontaneous voice messages.
Consider a diffusion process X=(X_t), with t in [0,1], observed at discrete times and high frequency, solution of a stochastic differential equation whose drift and diffusion coefficients are assumed to be unknown. In this article, we focus on the nonparametric esstimation of the diffusion coefficient. We propose ridge estimators of the square of the diffusion coefficient from discrete observations of X and that are obtained by minimization of the least squares contrast. We prove that the estimators are consistent and derive rates of convergence as the size of the sample paths tends to infinity, and the discretization step of the time interval [0,1] tend to zero. The theoretical results are completed with a numerical study over synthetic data.
Despite recent availability of large transcribed Kinyarwanda speech data, achieving robust speech recognition for Kinyarwanda is still challenging. In this work, we show that using self-supervised pre-training, following a simple curriculum schedule during fine-tuning and using semi-supervised learning to leverage large unlabelled speech data significantly improve speech recognition performance for Kinyarwanda. Our approach focuses on using public domain data only. A new studio-quality speech dataset is collected from a public website, then used to train a clean baseline model. The clean baseline model is then used to rank examples from a more diverse and noisy public dataset, defining a simple curriculum training schedule. Finally, we apply semi-supervised learning to label and learn from large unlabelled data in five successive generations. Our final model achieves 3.2% word error rate (WER) on the new dataset and 15.6% WER on Mozilla Common Voice benchmark, which is state-of-the-art to the best of our knowledge. Our experiments also indicate that using syllabic rather than character-based tokenization results in better speech recognition performance for Kinyarwanda.
We present an asymptotic expansion formula of an estimator for the drift coefficient of the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. As the machinery, we apply the general expansion scheme for Wiener functionals recently developed by the authors [26]. The central limit theorem in the principal part of the expansion has the classical scaling T^{1/2}. However, the asymptotic expansion formula is a complex in that the order of the correction term becomes the classical T^{-1/2} for H in (1/2,5/8), but T^{4H-3} for H in [5/8, 3/4).
Activation Patching is a method of directly computing causal attributions of behavior to model components. However, applying it exhaustively requires a sweep with cost scaling linearly in the number of model components, which can be prohibitively expensive for SoTA Large Language Models (LLMs). We investigate Attribution Patching (AtP), a fast gradient-based approximation to Activation Patching and find two classes of failure modes of AtP which lead to significant false negatives. We propose a variant of AtP called AtP*, with two changes to address these failure modes while retaining scalability. We present the first systematic study of AtP and alternative methods for faster activation patching and show that AtP significantly outperforms all other investigated methods, with AtP* providing further significant improvement. Finally, we provide a method to bound the probability of remaining false negatives of AtP* estimates.
Hundreds of millions of people now interact with language models, with uses ranging from serving as a writing aid to informing hiring decisions. Yet these language models are known to perpetuate systematic racial prejudices, making their judgments biased in problematic ways about groups like African Americans. While prior research has focused on overt racism in language models, social scientists have argued that racism with a more subtle character has developed over time. It is unknown whether this covert racism manifests in language models. Here, we demonstrate that language models embody covert racism in the form of dialect prejudice: we extend research showing that Americans hold raciolinguistic stereotypes about speakers of African American English and find that language models have the same prejudice, exhibiting covert stereotypes that are more negative than any human stereotypes about African Americans ever experimentally recorded, although closest to the ones from before the civil rights movement. By contrast, the language models' overt stereotypes about African Americans are much more positive. We demonstrate that dialect prejudice has the potential for harmful consequences by asking language models to make hypothetical decisions about people, based only on how they speak. Language models are more likely to suggest that speakers of African American English be assigned less prestigious jobs, be convicted of crimes, and be sentenced to death. Finally, we show that existing methods for alleviating racial bias in language models such as human feedback training do not mitigate the dialect prejudice, but can exacerbate the discrepancy between covert and overt stereotypes, by teaching language models to superficially conceal the racism that they maintain on a deeper level. Our findings have far-reaching implications for the fair and safe employment of language technology.
Safe and reliable disclosure of information from confidential data is a challenging statistical problem. A common approach considers the generation of synthetic data, to be disclosed instead of the original data. Efficient approaches ought to deal with the trade-off between reliability and confidentiality of the released data. Ultimately, the aim is to be able to reproduce as accurately as possible statistical analysis of the original data using the synthetic one. Bayesian networks is a model-based approach that can be used to parsimoniously estimate the underlying distribution of the original data and generate synthetic datasets. These ought to not only approximate the results of analyses with the original data but also robustly quantify the uncertainty involved in the approximation. This paper proposes a fully Bayesian approach to generate and analyze synthetic data based on the posterior predictive distribution of statistics of the synthetic data, allowing for efficient uncertainty quantification. The methodology makes use of probability properties of the model to devise a computationally efficient algorithm to obtain the target predictive distributions via Monte Carlo. Model parsimony is handled by proposing a general class of penalizing priors for Bayesian network models. Finally, the efficiency and applicability of the proposed methodology is empirically investigated through simulated and real examples.
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