Addressing health disparities among different demographic groups is a key challenge in public health. Despite many efforts, there is still a gap in understanding how these disparities unfold over time. Our paper focuses on this overlooked longitudinal aspect, which is crucial in both clinical and public health settings. In this paper, we introduce a longitudinal disparity decomposition method that decomposes disparities into three components: the explained disparity linked to differences in the exploratory variables' conditional distribution when the modifier distribution is identical between majority and minority groups, the explained disparity that emerges specifically from the unequal distribution of the modifier and its interaction with covariates, and the unexplained disparity. The proposed method offers a dynamic alternative to the traditional Peters-Belson decomposition approach, tackling both the potential reduction in disparity if the covariate distributions of minority groups matched those of the majority group and the evolving nature of disparity over time. We apply the proposed approach to a fetal growth study to gain insights into disparities between different race/ethnicity groups in fetal developmental progress throughout the course of pregnancy.
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Generative AI brings novel and impressive abilities to help people in everyday tasks. There are many AI workflows that solve real and complex problems by chaining AI outputs together with human interaction. Although there is an undeniable lure of AI, it is uncertain how useful generative AI workflows are after the novelty wears off. Additionally, workflows built with generative AI have the potential to be easily customized to fit users' individual needs, but do users take advantage of this? We conducted a three-week longitudinal study with 12 users to understand the familiarization and customization of generative AI tools for science communication. Our study revealed that there exists a familiarization phase, during which users were exploring the novel capabilities of the workflow and discovering which aspects they found useful. After this phase, users understood the workflow and were able to anticipate the outputs. Surprisingly, after familiarization the perceived utility of the system was rated higher than before, indicating that the perceived utility of AI is not just a novelty effect. The increase in benefits mainly comes from end-users' ability to customize prompts, and thus potentially appropriate the system to their own needs. This points to a future where generative AI systems can allow us to design for appropriation.
In recent years discussions centered around digital inheritance have increased among social media users and across blockchain ecosystems. As a result digital assets such as social media content cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens have become increasingly valuable and widespread, leading to the need for clear and secure mechanisms for transferring these assets upon the testators death or incapacitation. This study proposes a framework for digital inheritance using soulbound tokens and the social recovery pallet as a use case in the Polkadot and Kusama blockchain networks. The findings discussed within this study suggest that while soulbound tokens and the social recovery pallet offer a promising solution for creating a digital inheritance plan the findings also raise important considerations for testators digital executors and developers. While further research is needed to fully understand the potential impacts and risks of other technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing this study provides a primer for users to begin planning a digital inheritance strategy and for developers to develop a more intuitive solution.
Despite advancements in medical care, hip fractures impose a significant burden on individuals and healthcare systems. This paper focuses on the prediction of hip fracture risk in older and middle-aged adults, where falls and compromised bone quality are predominant factors. We propose a novel staged model that combines advanced imaging and clinical data to improve predictive performance. By using CNNs to extract features from hip DXA images, along with clinical variables, shape measurements, and texture features, our method provides a comprehensive framework for assessing fracture risk. A staged machine learning-based model was developed using two ensemble models: Ensemble 1 (clinical variables only) and Ensemble 2 (clinical variables and DXA imaging features). This staged approach used uncertainty quantification from Ensemble 1 to decide if DXA features are necessary for further prediction. Ensemble 2 exhibited the highest performance, achieving an AUC of 0.9541, an accuracy of 0.9195, a sensitivity of 0.8078, and a specificity of 0.9427. The staged model also performed well, with an AUC of 0.8486, an accuracy of 0.8611, a sensitivity of 0.5578, and a specificity of 0.9249, outperforming Ensemble 1, which had an AUC of 0.5549, an accuracy of 0.7239, a sensitivity of 0.1956, and a specificity of 0.8343. Furthermore, the staged model suggested that 54.49% of patients did not require DXA scanning. It effectively balanced accuracy and specificity, offering a robust solution when DXA data acquisition is not always feasible. Statistical tests confirmed significant differences between the models, highlighting the advantages of the advanced modeling strategies. Our staged approach could identify individuals at risk with a high accuracy but reduce the unnecessary DXA scanning. It has great promise to guide interventions to prevent hip fractures with reduced cost and radiation.
In this work, from a theoretical lens, we aim to understand why large language model (LLM) empowered agents are able to solve decision-making problems in the physical world. To this end, consider a hierarchical reinforcement learning (RL) model where the LLM Planner and the Actor perform high-level task planning and low-level execution, respectively. Under this model, the LLM Planner navigates a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) by iteratively generating language-based subgoals via prompting. Under proper assumptions on the pretraining data, we prove that the pretrained LLM Planner effectively performs Bayesian aggregated imitation learning (BAIL) through in-context learning. Additionally, we highlight the necessity for exploration beyond the subgoals derived from BAIL by proving that naively executing the subgoals returned by LLM leads to a linear regret. As a remedy, we introduce an $\epsilon$-greedy exploration strategy to BAIL, which is proven to incur sublinear regret when the pretraining error is small. Finally, we extend our theoretical framework to include scenarios where the LLM Planner serves as a world model for inferring the transition model of the environment and to multi-agent settings, enabling coordination among multiple Actors.
In health and social sciences, it is critically important to identify subgroups of the study population where there is notable heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) with respect to the population average. Decision trees have been proposed and commonly adopted for the data-driven discovery of HTE due to their high level of interpretability. However, single-tree discovery of HTE can be unstable and oversimplified. This paper introduces the Causal Rule Ensemble (CRE), a new method for HTE discovery and estimation using an ensemble-of-trees approach. CRE offers several key features, including 1) an interpretable representation of the HTE; 2) the ability to explore complex heterogeneity patterns; and 3) high stability in subgroups discovery. The discovered subgroups are defined in terms of interpretable decision rules. Estimation of subgroup-specific causal effects is performed via a two-stage approach, for which we provide theoretical guarantees. Through simulations, we show that the CRE method is highly competitive compared to state-of-the-art techniques. Finally, we apply CRE to discover the heterogeneous health effects of exposure to air pollution on mortality for 35.3 million Medicare beneficiaries across the contiguous U.S.
Autonomous systems are soon to be ubiquitous, from manufacturing autonomy to agricultural field robots, and from health care assistants to the entertainment industry. The majority of these systems are developed with modular sub-components for decision-making, planning, and control that may be hand-engineered or learning-based. While these existing approaches have been shown to perform well under the situations they were specifically designed for, they can perform especially poorly in rare, out-of-distribution scenarios that will undoubtedly arise at test-time. The rise of foundation models trained on multiple tasks with impressively large datasets from a variety of fields has led researchers to believe that these models may provide common sense reasoning that existing planners are missing. Researchers posit that this common sense reasoning will bridge the gap between algorithm development and deployment to out-of-distribution tasks, like how humans adapt to unexpected scenarios. Large language models have already penetrated the robotics and autonomous systems domains as researchers are scrambling to showcase their potential use cases in deployment. While this application direction is very promising empirically, foundation models are known to hallucinate and generate decisions that may sound reasonable, but are in fact poor. We argue there is a need to step back and simultaneously design systems that can quantify the certainty of a model's decision, and detect when it may be hallucinating. In this work, we discuss the current use cases of foundation models for decision-making tasks, provide a general definition for hallucinations with examples, discuss existing approaches to hallucination detection and mitigation with a focus on decision problems, and explore areas for further research in this exciting field.
Chain-of-thought reasoning, a cognitive process fundamental to human intelligence, has garnered significant attention in the realm of artificial intelligence and natural language processing. However, there still remains a lack of a comprehensive survey for this arena. To this end, we take the first step and present a thorough survey of this research field carefully and widely. We use X-of-Thought to refer to Chain-of-Thought in a broad sense. In detail, we systematically organize the current research according to the taxonomies of methods, including XoT construction, XoT structure variants, and enhanced XoT. Additionally, we describe XoT with frontier applications, covering planning, tool use, and distillation. Furthermore, we address challenges and discuss some future directions, including faithfulness, multi-modal, and theory. We hope this survey serves as a valuable resource for researchers seeking to innovate within the domain of chain-of-thought reasoning.
Since deep neural networks were developed, they have made huge contributions to everyday lives. Machine learning provides more rational advice than humans are capable of in almost every aspect of daily life. However, despite this achievement, the design and training of neural networks are still challenging and unpredictable procedures. To lower the technical thresholds for common users, automated hyper-parameter optimization (HPO) has become a popular topic in both academic and industrial areas. This paper provides a review of the most essential topics on HPO. The first section introduces the key hyper-parameters related to model training and structure, and discusses their importance and methods to define the value range. Then, the research focuses on major optimization algorithms and their applicability, covering their efficiency and accuracy especially for deep learning networks. This study next reviews major services and toolkits for HPO, comparing their support for state-of-the-art searching algorithms, feasibility with major deep learning frameworks, and extensibility for new modules designed by users. The paper concludes with problems that exist when HPO is applied to deep learning, a comparison between optimization algorithms, and prominent approaches for model evaluation with limited computational resources.
Commonsense knowledge and commonsense reasoning are some of the main bottlenecks in machine intelligence. In the NLP community, many benchmark datasets and tasks have been created to address commonsense reasoning for language understanding. These tasks are designed to assess machines' ability to acquire and learn commonsense knowledge in order to reason and understand natural language text. As these tasks become instrumental and a driving force for commonsense research, this paper aims to provide an overview of existing tasks and benchmarks, knowledge resources, and learning and inference approaches toward commonsense reasoning for natural language understanding. Through this, our goal is to support a better understanding of the state of the art, its limitations, and future challenges.
The era of big data provides researchers with convenient access to copious data. However, people often have little knowledge about it. The increasing prevalence of big data is challenging the traditional methods of learning causality because they are developed for the cases with limited amount of data and solid prior causal knowledge. This survey aims to close the gap between big data and learning causality with a comprehensive and structured review of traditional and frontier methods and a discussion about some open problems of learning causality. We begin with preliminaries of learning causality. Then we categorize and revisit methods of learning causality for the typical problems and data types. After that, we discuss the connections between learning causality and machine learning. At the end, some open problems are presented to show the great potential of learning causality with data.
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