Stein thinning is a promising algorithm proposed by (Riabiz et al., 2022) for post-processing outputs of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The main principle is to greedily minimize the kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD), which only requires the gradient of the log-target distribution, and is thus well-suited for Bayesian inference. The main advantages of Stein thinning are the automatic remove of the burn-in period, the correction of the bias introduced by recent MCMC algorithms, and the asymptotic properties of convergence towards the target distribution. Nevertheless, Stein thinning suffers from several empirical pathologies, which may result in poor approximations, as observed in the literature. In this article, we conduct a theoretical analysis of these pathologies, to clearly identify the mechanisms at stake, and suggest improved strategies. Then, we introduce the regularized Stein thinning algorithm to alleviate the identified pathologies. Finally, theoretical guarantees and extensive experiments show the high efficiency of the proposed algorithm.
While ERM suffices to attain near-optimal generalization error in the stochastic learning setting, this is not known to be the case in the online learning setting, where algorithms for general concept classes rely on computationally inefficient oracles such as the Standard Optimal Algorithm (SOA). In this work, we propose an algorithm for online binary classification setting that relies solely on ERM oracle calls, and show that it has finite regret in the realizable setting and sublinearly growing regret in the agnostic setting. We bound the regret in terms of the Littlestone and threshold dimensions of the underlying concept class. We obtain similar results for nonparametric games, where the ERM oracle can be interpreted as a best response oracle, finding the best response of a player to a given history of play of the other players. In this setting, we provide learning algorithms that only rely on best response oracles and converge to approximate-minimax equilibria in two-player zero-sum games and approximate coarse correlated equilibria in multi-player general-sum games, as long as the game has a bounded fat-threshold dimension. Our algorithms apply to both binary-valued and real-valued games and can be viewed as providing justification for the wide use of double oracle and multiple oracle algorithms in the practice of solving large games.
This article inspects whether a multivariate distribution is different from a specified distribution or not, and it also tests the equality of two multivariate distributions. In the course of this study, a graphical tool-kit using well-known half-spaced depth based information criteria is proposed, which is a two-dimensional plot, regardless of the dimension of the data, and it is even useful in comparing high-dimensional distributions. The simple interpretability of the proposed graphical tool-kit motivates us to formulate test statistics to carry out the corresponding testing of hypothesis problems. It is established that the proposed tests based on the same information criteria are consistent, and moreover, the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics under contiguous/local alternatives are derived, which enable us to compute the asymptotic power of these tests. Furthermore, it is observed that the computations associated with the proposed tests are unburdensome. Besides, these tests perform better than many other tests available in the literature when data are generated from various distributions such as heavy tailed distributions, which indicates that the proposed methodology is robust as well. Finally, the usefulness of the proposed graphical tool-kit and tests is shown on two benchmark real data sets.
The central limit theorem (CLT) is one of the most fundamental results in probability; and establishing its rate of convergence has been a key question since the 1940s. For independent random variables, a series of recent works established optimal error bounds under the Wasserstein-p distance (with p>=1). In this paper, we extend those results to locally dependent random variables, which include m-dependent random fields and U-statistics. Under conditions on the moments and the dependency neighborhoods, we derive optimal rates in the CLT for the Wasserstein-p distance. Our proofs rely on approximating the empirical average of dependent observations by the empirical average of i.i.d. random variables. To do so, we expand the Stein equation to arbitrary orders by adapting the Stein's dependency neighborhood method. Finally we illustrate the applicability of our results by obtaining efficient tail bounds.
Approximating significance scans of searches for new particles in high-energy physics experiments as Gaussian fields is a well-established way to estimate the trials factors required to quantify global significances. We propose a novel, highly efficient method to estimate the covariance matrix of such a Gaussian field. The method is based on the linear approximation of statistical fluctuations of the signal amplitude. For one-dimensional searches the upper bound on the trials factor can then be calculated directly from the covariance matrix. For higher dimensions, the Gaussian process described by this covariance matrix may be sampled to calculate the trials factor directly. This method also serves as the theoretical basis for a recent study of the trials factor with an empirically constructed set of Asmiov-like background datasets. We illustrate the method with studies of a $H \rightarrow \gamma \gamma$ inspired model that was used in the empirical paper.
Prior knowledge and symbolic rules in machine learning are often expressed in the form of label constraints, especially in structured prediction problems. In this work, we compare two common strategies for encoding label constraints in a machine learning pipeline, regularization with constraints and constrained inference, by quantifying their impact on model performance. For regularization, we show that it narrows the generalization gap by precluding models that are inconsistent with the constraints. However, its preference for small violations introduces a bias toward a suboptimal model. For constrained inference, we show that it reduces the population risk by correcting a model's violation, and hence turns the violation into an advantage. Given these differences, we further explore the use of two approaches together and propose conditions for constrained inference to compensate for the bias introduced by regularization, aiming to improve both the model complexity and optimal risk.
This study introduces a mediation analysis framework when the mediator is a graph. A Gaussian covariance graph model is assumed for graph representation. Causal estimands and assumptions are discussed under this representation. With a covariance matrix as the mediator, parametric mediation models are imposed based on matrix decomposition. Assuming Gaussian random errors, likelihood-based estimators are introduced to simultaneously identify the decomposition and causal parameters. An efficient computational algorithm is proposed and asymptotic properties of the estimators are investigated. Via simulation studies, the performance of the proposed approach is evaluated. Applying to a resting-state fMRI study, a brain network is identified within which functional connectivity mediates the sex difference in the performance of a motor task.
Gaussian variational inference and the Laplace approximation are popular alternatives to Markov chain Monte Carlo that formulate Bayesian posterior inference as an optimization problem, enabling the use of simple and scalable stochastic optimization algorithms. However, a key limitation of both methods is that the solution to the optimization problem is typically not tractable to compute; even in simple settings the problem is nonconvex. Thus, recently developed statistical guarantees -- which all involve the (data) asymptotic properties of the global optimum -- are not reliably obtained in practice. In this work, we provide two major contributions: a theoretical analysis of the asymptotic convexity properties of variational inference with a Gaussian family and the maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem required by the Laplace approximation; and two algorithms -- consistent Laplace approximation (CLA) and consistent stochastic variational inference (CSVI) -- that exploit these properties to find the optimal approximation in the asymptotic regime. Both CLA and CSVI involve a tractable initialization procedure that finds the local basin of the optimum, and CSVI further includes a scaled gradient descent algorithm that provably stays locally confined to that basin. Experiments on nonconvex synthetic and real-data examples show that compared with standard variational and Laplace approximations, both CSVI and CLA improve the likelihood of obtaining the global optimum of their respective optimization problems.
Sampling methods (e.g., node-wise, layer-wise, or subgraph) has become an indispensable strategy to speed up training large-scale Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). However, existing sampling methods are mostly based on the graph structural information and ignore the dynamicity of optimization, which leads to high variance in estimating the stochastic gradients. The high variance issue can be very pronounced in extremely large graphs, where it results in slow convergence and poor generalization. In this paper, we theoretically analyze the variance of sampling methods and show that, due to the composite structure of empirical risk, the variance of any sampling method can be decomposed into \textit{embedding approximation variance} in the forward stage and \textit{stochastic gradient variance} in the backward stage that necessities mitigating both types of variance to obtain faster convergence rate. We propose a decoupled variance reduction strategy that employs (approximate) gradient information to adaptively sample nodes with minimal variance, and explicitly reduces the variance introduced by embedding approximation. We show theoretically and empirically that the proposed method, even with smaller mini-batch sizes, enjoys a faster convergence rate and entails a better generalization compared to the existing methods.
A core capability of intelligent systems is the ability to quickly learn new tasks by drawing on prior experience. Gradient (or optimization) based meta-learning has recently emerged as an effective approach for few-shot learning. In this formulation, meta-parameters are learned in the outer loop, while task-specific models are learned in the inner-loop, by using only a small amount of data from the current task. A key challenge in scaling these approaches is the need to differentiate through the inner loop learning process, which can impose considerable computational and memory burdens. By drawing upon implicit differentiation, we develop the implicit MAML algorithm, which depends only on the solution to the inner level optimization and not the path taken by the inner loop optimizer. This effectively decouples the meta-gradient computation from the choice of inner loop optimizer. As a result, our approach is agnostic to the choice of inner loop optimizer and can gracefully handle many gradient steps without vanishing gradients or memory constraints. Theoretically, we prove that implicit MAML can compute accurate meta-gradients with a memory footprint that is, up to small constant factors, no more than that which is required to compute a single inner loop gradient and at no overall increase in the total computational cost. Experimentally, we show that these benefits of implicit MAML translate into empirical gains on few-shot image recognition benchmarks.