An emerging method to cheaply improve a weaker language model is to finetune it on outputs from a stronger model, such as a proprietary system like ChatGPT (e.g., Alpaca, Self-Instruct, and others). This approach looks to cheaply imitate the proprietary model's capabilities using a weaker open-source model. In this work, we critically analyze this approach. We first finetune a series of LMs that imitate ChatGPT using varying base model sizes (1.5B--13B), data sources, and imitation data amounts (0.3M--150M tokens). We then evaluate the models using crowd raters and canonical NLP benchmarks. Initially, we were surprised by the output quality of our imitation models -- they appear far better at following instructions, and crowd workers rate their outputs as competitive with ChatGPT. However, when conducting more targeted automatic evaluations, we find that imitation models close little to none of the gap from the base LM to ChatGPT on tasks that are not heavily supported in the imitation data. We show that these performance discrepancies may slip past human raters because imitation models are adept at mimicking ChatGPT's style but not its factuality. Overall, we conclude that model imitation is a false promise: there exists a substantial capabilities gap between open and closed LMs that, with current methods, can only be bridged using an unwieldy amount of imitation data or by using more capable base LMs. In turn, we argue that the highest leverage action for improving open-source models is to tackle the difficult challenge of developing better base LMs, rather than taking the shortcut of imitating proprietary systems.
Analysis of high-dimensional data, where the number of covariates is larger than the sample size, is a topic of current interest. In such settings, an important goal is to estimate the signal level $\tau^2$ and noise level $\sigma^2$, i.e., to quantify how much variation in the response variable can be explained by the covariates, versus how much of the variation is left unexplained. This thesis considers the estimation of these quantities in a semi-supervised setting, where for many observations only the vector of covariates $X$ is given with no responses $Y$. Our main research question is: how can one use the unlabeled data to better estimate $\tau^2$ and $\sigma^2$? We consider two frameworks: a linear regression model and a linear projection model in which linearity is not assumed. In the first framework, while linear regression is used, no sparsity assumptions on the coefficients are made. In the second framework, the linearity assumption is also relaxed and we aim to estimate the signal and noise levels defined by the linear projection. We first propose a naive estimator which is unbiased and consistent, under some assumptions, in both frameworks. We then show how the naive estimator can be improved by using zero-estimators, where a zero-estimator is a statistic arising from the unlabeled data, whose expected value is zero. In the first framework, we calculate the optimal zero-estimator improvement and discuss ways to approximate the optimal improvement. In the second framework, such optimality does no longer hold and we suggest two zero-estimators that improve the naive estimator although not necessarily optimally. Furthermore, we show that our approach reduces the variance for general initial estimators and we present an algorithm that potentially improves any initial estimator. Lastly, we consider four datasets and study the performance of our suggested methods.
This paper explores the integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems to improve transcription accuracy. The increasing sophistication of LLMs, with their in-context learning capabilities and instruction-following behavior, has drawn significant attention in the field of Natural Language Processing (NLP). Our primary focus is to investigate the potential of using an LLM's in-context learning capabilities to enhance the performance of ASR systems, which currently face challenges such as ambient noise, speaker accents, and complex linguistic contexts. We designed a study using the Aishell-1 and LibriSpeech datasets, with ChatGPT and GPT-4 serving as benchmarks for LLM capabilities. Unfortunately, our initial experiments did not yield promising results, indicating the complexity of leveraging LLM's in-context learning for ASR applications. Despite further exploration with varied settings and models, the corrected sentences from the LLMs frequently resulted in higher Word Error Rates (WER), demonstrating the limitations of LLMs in speech applications. This paper provides a detailed overview of these experiments, their results, and implications, establishing that using LLMs' in-context learning capabilities to correct potential errors in speech recognition transcriptions is still a challenging task at the current stage.
Inference algorithms for probabilistic programming are complex imperative programs with many moving parts. Efficient inference often requires customising an algorithm to a particular probabilistic model or problem, sometimes called inference programming. Most inference frameworks are implemented in languages that lack a disciplined approach to side effects, which can result in monolithic implementations where the structure of the algorithms is obscured and inference programming is hard. Functional programming with typed effects offers a more structured and modular foundation for programmable inference, with monad transformers being the primary structuring mechanism explored to date. This paper presents an alternative approach to inference programming based on algebraic effects. Using effect signatures to specify the key operations of the algorithms, and effect handlers to modularly interpret those operations for specific variants, we develop two abstract algorithms, or inference patterns, representing two important classes of inference: Metropolis-Hastings and particle filtering. We show how our approach reveals the algorithms' high-level structure, and makes it easy to tailor and recombine their parts into new variants. We implement the two inference patterns as a Haskell library, and discuss the pros and cons of algebraic effects vis-a-vis monad transformers as a structuring mechanism for modular imperative algorithm design.
Data valuation is critical in machine learning, as it helps enhance model transparency and protect data properties. Existing data valuation methods have primarily focused on discriminative models, neglecting deep generative models that have recently gained considerable attention. Similar to discriminative models, there is an urgent need to assess data contributions in deep generative models as well. However, previous data valuation approaches mainly relied on discriminative model performance metrics and required model retraining. Consequently, they cannot be applied directly and efficiently to recent deep generative models, such as generative adversarial networks and diffusion models, in practice. To bridge this gap, we formulate the data valuation problem in generative models from a similarity-matching perspective. Specifically, we introduce Generative Model Valuator (GMValuator), the first model-agnostic approach for any generative models, designed to provide data valuation for generation tasks. We have conducted extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. To the best of their knowledge, GMValuator is the first work that offers a training-free, post-hoc data valuation strategy for deep generative models.
Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a class of black-box, surrogate-based heuristics that can efficiently optimize problems that are expensive to evaluate, and hence admit only small evaluation budgets. BO is particularly popular for solving numerical optimization problems in industry, where the evaluation of objective functions often relies on time-consuming simulations or physical experiments. However, many industrial problems depend on a large number of parameters. This poses a challenge for BO algorithms, whose performance is often reported to suffer when the dimension grows beyond 15 variables. Although many new algorithms have been proposed to address this problem, it is not well understood which one is the best for which optimization scenario. In this work, we compare five state-of-the-art high-dimensional BO algorithms, with vanilla BO and CMA-ES on the 24 BBOB functions of the COCO environment at increasing dimensionality, ranging from 10 to 60 variables. Our results confirm the superiority of BO over CMA-ES for limited evaluation budgets and suggest that the most promising approach to improve BO is the use of trust regions. However, we also observe significant performance differences for different function landscapes and budget exploitation phases, indicating improvement potential, e.g., through hybridization of algorithmic components.
Large language models (LLMs) have significantly advanced the field of natural language processing (NLP), providing a highly useful, task-agnostic foundation for a wide range of applications. The great promise of LLMs as general task solvers motivated people to extend their functionality largely beyond just a ``chatbot'', and use it as an assistant or even replacement for domain experts and tools in specific domains such as healthcare, finance, and education. However, directly applying LLMs to solve sophisticated problems in specific domains meets many hurdles, caused by the heterogeneity of domain data, the sophistication of domain knowledge, the uniqueness of domain objectives, and the diversity of the constraints (e.g., various social norms, cultural conformity, religious beliefs, and ethical standards in the domain applications). To fill such a gap, explosively-increase research, and practices have been conducted in very recent years on the domain specialization of LLMs, which, however, calls for a comprehensive and systematic review to better summarizes and guide this promising domain. In this survey paper, first, we propose a systematic taxonomy that categorizes the LLM domain-specialization techniques based on the accessibility to LLMs and summarizes the framework for all the subcategories as well as their relations and differences to each other. We also present a comprehensive taxonomy of critical application domains that can benefit from specialized LLMs, discussing their practical significance and open challenges. Furthermore, we offer insights into the current research status and future trends in this area.
This paper presents a comprehensive and practical guide for practitioners and end-users working with Large Language Models (LLMs) in their downstream natural language processing (NLP) tasks. We provide discussions and insights into the usage of LLMs from the perspectives of models, data, and downstream tasks. Firstly, we offer an introduction and brief summary of current GPT- and BERT-style LLMs. Then, we discuss the influence of pre-training data, training data, and test data. Most importantly, we provide a detailed discussion about the use and non-use cases of large language models for various natural language processing tasks, such as knowledge-intensive tasks, traditional natural language understanding tasks, natural language generation tasks, emergent abilities, and considerations for specific tasks.We present various use cases and non-use cases to illustrate the practical applications and limitations of LLMs in real-world scenarios. We also try to understand the importance of data and the specific challenges associated with each NLP task. Furthermore, we explore the impact of spurious biases on LLMs and delve into other essential considerations, such as efficiency, cost, and latency, to ensure a comprehensive understanding of deploying LLMs in practice. This comprehensive guide aims to provide researchers and practitioners with valuable insights and best practices for working with LLMs, thereby enabling the successful implementation of these models in a wide range of NLP tasks. A curated list of practical guide resources of LLMs, regularly updated, can be found at \url{//github.com/Mooler0410/LLMsPracticalGuide}.
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.
Reinforcement learning (RL) is a popular paradigm for addressing sequential decision tasks in which the agent has only limited environmental feedback. Despite many advances over the past three decades, learning in many domains still requires a large amount of interaction with the environment, which can be prohibitively expensive in realistic scenarios. To address this problem, transfer learning has been applied to reinforcement learning such that experience gained in one task can be leveraged when starting to learn the next, harder task. More recently, several lines of research have explored how tasks, or data samples themselves, can be sequenced into a curriculum for the purpose of learning a problem that may otherwise be too difficult to learn from scratch. In this article, we present a framework for curriculum learning (CL) in reinforcement learning, and use it to survey and classify existing CL methods in terms of their assumptions, capabilities, and goals. Finally, we use our framework to find open problems and suggest directions for future RL curriculum learning research.
Sentiment analysis is a widely studied NLP task where the goal is to determine opinions, emotions, and evaluations of users towards a product, an entity or a service that they are reviewing. One of the biggest challenges for sentiment analysis is that it is highly language dependent. Word embeddings, sentiment lexicons, and even annotated data are language specific. Further, optimizing models for each language is very time consuming and labor intensive especially for recurrent neural network models. From a resource perspective, it is very challenging to collect data for different languages. In this paper, we look for an answer to the following research question: can a sentiment analysis model trained on a language be reused for sentiment analysis in other languages, Russian, Spanish, Turkish, and Dutch, where the data is more limited? Our goal is to build a single model in the language with the largest dataset available for the task, and reuse it for languages that have limited resources. For this purpose, we train a sentiment analysis model using recurrent neural networks with reviews in English. We then translate reviews in other languages and reuse this model to evaluate the sentiments. Experimental results show that our robust approach of single model trained on English reviews statistically significantly outperforms the baselines in several different languages.