It is known that standard stochastic Galerkin methods encounter challenges when solving partial differential equations with high dimensional random inputs, which are typically caused by the large number of stochastic basis functions required. It becomes crucial to properly choose effective basis functions, such that the dimension of the stochastic approximation space can be reduced. In this work, we focus on the stochastic Galerkin approximation associated with generalized polynomial chaos (gPC), and explore the gPC expansion based on the analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition. A concise form of the gPC expansion is presented for each component function of the ANOVA expansion, and an adaptive ANOVA procedure is proposed to construct the overall stochastic Galerkin system. Numerical results demonstrate the efficiency of our proposed adaptive ANOVA stochastic Galerkin method.
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This work presents a non-parametric estimator for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the jump-size distribution for a storage system with compound Poisson input. The workload process is observed according to an independent Poisson sampling process. The nonparametric estimator is constructed by first estimating the characteristic function (CF) and then applying an inversion formula. The convergence rate of the CF estimator at $s$ is shown to be of the order of $s^2/n$, where $n$ is the sample size. This convergence rate is leveraged to explore the bias-variance tradeoff of the inversion estimator. It is demonstrated that within a certain class of continuous distributions, the risk, in terms of MSE, is uniformly bounded by $C n^{-\frac{\eta}{1+\eta}}$, where $C$ is a positive constant and the parameter $\eta>0$ depends on the smoothness of the underlying class of distributions. A heuristic method is further developed to address the case of an unknown rate of the compound Poisson input process.
In this paper, we investigate the convergence properties of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) method and its variants, especially in training neural networks built from nonsmooth activation functions. We develop a novel framework that assigns different timescales to stepsizes for updating the momentum terms and variables, respectively. Under mild conditions, we prove the global convergence of our proposed framework in both single-timescale and two-timescale cases. We show that our proposed framework encompasses a wide range of well-known SGD-type methods, including heavy-ball SGD, SignSGD, Lion, normalized SGD and clipped SGD. Furthermore, when the objective function adopts a finite-sum formulation, we prove the convergence properties for these SGD-type methods based on our proposed framework. In particular, we prove that these SGD-type methods find the Clarke stationary points of the objective function with randomly chosen stepsizes and initial points under mild assumptions. Preliminary numerical experiments demonstrate the high efficiency of our analyzed SGD-type methods.
We propose a numerical method to solve parameter-dependent hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs) with a moment approach, based on a previous work from Marx et al. (2020). This approach relies on a very weak notion of solution of nonlinear equations, namely parametric entropy measure-valued (MV) solutions, satisfying linear equations in the space of Borel measures. The infinite-dimensional linear problem is approximated by a hierarchy of convex, finite-dimensional, semidefinite programming problems, called Lasserre's hierarchy. This gives us a sequence of approximations of the moments of the occupation measure associated with the parametric entropy MV solution, which is proved to converge. In the end, several post-treatments can be performed from this approximate moments sequence. In particular, the graph of the solution can be reconstructed from an optimization of the Christoffel-Darboux kernel associated with the approximate measure, that is a powerful approximation tool able to capture a large class of irregular functions. Also, for uncertainty quantification problems, several quantities of interest can be estimated, sometimes directly such as the expectation of smooth functionals of the solutions. The performance of our approach is evaluated through numerical experiments on the inviscid Burgers equation with parametrised initial conditions or parametrised flux function.
Manifold learning is a central task in modern statistics and data science. Many datasets (cells, documents, images, molecules) can be represented as point clouds embedded in a high dimensional ambient space, however the degrees of freedom intrinsic to the data are usually far fewer than the number of ambient dimensions. The task of detecting a latent manifold along which the data are embedded is a prerequisite for a wide family of downstream analyses. Real-world datasets are subject to noisy observations and sampling, so that distilling information about the underlying manifold is a major challenge. We propose a method for manifold learning that utilises a symmetric version of optimal transport with a quadratic regularisation that constructs a sparse and adaptive affinity matrix, that can be interpreted as a generalisation of the bistochastic kernel normalisation. We prove that the resulting kernel is consistent with a Laplace-type operator in the continuous limit, establish robustness to heteroskedastic noise and exhibit these results in simulations. We identify a highly efficient computational scheme for computing this optimal transport for discrete data and demonstrate that it outperforms competing methods in a set of examples.
Nonparametric estimators for the mean and the covariance functions of functional data are proposed. The setup covers a wide range of practical situations. The random trajectories are, not necessarily differentiable, have unknown regularity, and are measured with error at discrete design points. The measurement error could be heteroscedastic. The design points could be either randomly drawn or common for all curves. The estimators depend on the local regularity of the stochastic process generating the functional data. We consider a simple estimator of this local regularity which exploits the replication and regularization features of functional data. Next, we use the ``smoothing first, then estimate'' approach for the mean and the covariance functions. They can be applied with both sparsely or densely sampled curves, are easy to calculate and to update, and perform well in simulations. Simulations built upon an example of real data set, illustrate the effectiveness of the new approach.
This work is concerned with the use of Gaussian surrogate models for Bayesian inverse problems associated with linear partial differential equations. A particular focus is on the regime where only a small amount of training data is available. In this regime the type of Gaussian prior used is of critical importance with respect to how well the surrogate model will perform in terms of Bayesian inversion. We extend the framework of Raissi et. al. (2017) to construct PDE-informed Gaussian priors that we then use to construct different approximate posteriors. A number of different numerical experiments illustrate the superiority of the PDE-informed Gaussian priors over more traditional priors.
We present implicit and explicit versions of a numerical algorithm for solving a Volterra integro-differential equation. These algorithms are an extension of our previous work, and cater for a kernel of general form. We use an appropriate test equation to study the stability of both algorithms, numerically deriving stability regions. The region for the implicit method appears to be unbounded, while the explicit has a bounded region close to the origin. We perform a few calculations to demonstrate our results.
Sequential tests and their implied confidence sequences, which are valid at arbitrary stopping times, promise flexible statistical inference and on-the-fly decision making. However, strong guarantees are limited to parametric sequential tests that under-cover in practice or concentration-bound-based sequences that over-cover and have suboptimal rejection times. In this work, we consider \cite{robbins1970boundary}'s delayed-start normal-mixture sequential probability ratio tests, and we provide the first asymptotic type-I-error and expected-rejection-time guarantees under general non-parametric data generating processes, where the asymptotics are indexed by the test's burn-in time. The type-I-error results primarily leverage a martingale strong invariance principle and establish that these tests (and their implied confidence sequences) have type-I error rates approaching a desired $\alpha$-level. The expected-rejection-time results primarily leverage an identity inspired by It\^o's lemma and imply that, in certain asymptotic regimes, the expected rejection time approaches the minimum possible among $\alpha$-level tests. We show how to apply our results to sequential inference on parameters defined by estimating equations, such as average treatment effects. Together, our results establish these (ostensibly parametric) tests as general-purpose, non-parametric, and near-optimal. We illustrate this via numerical experiments.
Sequential data collection has emerged as a widely adopted technique for enhancing the efficiency of data gathering processes. Despite its advantages, such data collection mechanism often introduces complexities to the statistical inference procedure. For instance, the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator in an adaptive linear regression model can exhibit non-normal asymptotic behavior, posing challenges for accurate inference and interpretation. In this paper, we propose a general method for constructing debiased estimator which remedies this issue. It makes use of the idea of adaptive linear estimating equations, and we establish theoretical guarantees of asymptotic normality, supplemented by discussions on achieving near-optimal asymptotic variance. A salient feature of our estimator is that in the context of multi-armed bandits, our estimator retains the non-asymptotic performance of the least square estimator while obtaining asymptotic normality property. Consequently, this work helps connect two fruitful paradigms of adaptive inference: a) non-asymptotic inference using concentration inequalities and b) asymptotic inference via asymptotic normality.
The conjoining of dynamical systems and deep learning has become a topic of great interest. In particular, neural differential equations (NDEs) demonstrate that neural networks and differential equation are two sides of the same coin. Traditional parameterised differential equations are a special case. Many popular neural network architectures, such as residual networks and recurrent networks, are discretisations. NDEs are suitable for tackling generative problems, dynamical systems, and time series (particularly in physics, finance, ...) and are thus of interest to both modern machine learning and traditional mathematical modelling. NDEs offer high-capacity function approximation, strong priors on model space, the ability to handle irregular data, memory efficiency, and a wealth of available theory on both sides. This doctoral thesis provides an in-depth survey of the field. Topics include: neural ordinary differential equations (e.g. for hybrid neural/mechanistic modelling of physical systems); neural controlled differential equations (e.g. for learning functions of irregular time series); and neural stochastic differential equations (e.g. to produce generative models capable of representing complex stochastic dynamics, or sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions). Further topics include: numerical methods for NDEs (e.g. reversible differential equations solvers, backpropagation through differential equations, Brownian reconstruction); symbolic regression for dynamical systems (e.g. via regularised evolution); and deep implicit models (e.g. deep equilibrium models, differentiable optimisation). We anticipate this thesis will be of interest to anyone interested in the marriage of deep learning with dynamical systems, and hope it will provide a useful reference for the current state of the art.
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