Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over- or under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models inadequate. Yet even for parametric regression models, approximations such as MCMC typically are needed for posterior inference. This paper introduces a Bayesian modeling and algorithmic framework that enables semiparametric regression analysis for discrete data with Monte Carlo (not MCMC) sampling. The proposed approach pairs a nonparametric marginal model with a latent linear regression model to encourage both flexibility and interpretability, and delivers posterior consistency even under model misspecification. For a parametric or large-sample approximation of this model, we identify a class of conjugate priors with (pseudo) closed-form posteriors. All posterior and predictive distributions are available analytically or via Monte Carlo sampling. These tools are broadly useful for linear regression, nonlinear models via basis expansions, and variable selection with discrete data. Simulation studies demonstrate significant advantages in computing, prediction, estimation, and selection relative to existing alternatives. This novel approach is applied to self-reported mental health data that exhibit zero-inflation, overdispersion, boundedness, and heaping.
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The coresets approach, also called subsampling or subset selection, aims to select a subsample as a surrogate for the observed sample. Such an approach has been used pervasively in large-scale data analysis. Existing coresets methods construct the subsample using a subset of rows from the predictor matrix. Such methods can be significantly inefficient when the predictor matrix is sparse or numerically sparse. To overcome the limitation, we develop a novel element-wise subset selection approach, called core-elements, for large-scale least squares estimation in classical linear regression. We provide a deterministic algorithm to construct the core-elements estimator, only requiring an $O(\mbox{nnz}(\mathbf{X})+rp^2)$ computational cost, where $\mathbf{X}$ is an $n\times p$ predictor matrix, $r$ is the number of elements selected from each column of $\mathbf{X}$, and $\mbox{nnz}(\cdot)$ denotes the number of non-zero elements. Theoretically, we show that the proposed estimator is unbiased and approximately minimizes an upper bound of the estimation variance. We also provide an approximation guarantee by deriving a coresets-like finite sample bound for the proposed estimator. To handle potential outliers in the data, we further combine core-elements with the median-of-means procedure, resulting in an efficient and robust estimator with theoretical consistency guarantees. Numerical studies on various synthetic and open-source datasets demonstrate the proposed method's superior performance compared to mainstream competitors.
Blind source separation (BSS) aims to recover an unobserved signal $S$ from its mixture $X=f(S)$ under the condition that the effecting transformation $f$ is invertible but unknown. As this is a basic problem with many practical applications, a fundamental issue is to understand how the solutions to this problem behave when their supporting statistical prior assumptions are violated. In the classical context of linear mixtures, we present a general framework for analysing such violations and quantifying their impact on the blind recovery of $S$ from $X$. Modelling $S$ as a multidimensional stochastic process, we introduce an informative topology on the space of possible causes underlying a mixture $X$, and show that the behaviour of a generic BSS-solution in response to general deviations from its defining structural assumptions can be profitably analysed in the form of explicit continuity guarantees with respect to this topology. This allows for a flexible and convenient quantification of general model uncertainty scenarios and amounts to the first comprehensive robustness framework for BSS. Our approach is entirely constructive, and we demonstrate its utility with novel theoretical guarantees for a number of statistical applications.
Flexible Bayesian models are typically constructed using limits of large parametric models with a multitude of parameters that are often uninterpretable. In this article, we offer a novel alternative by constructing an exponentially tilted empirical likelihood carefully designed to concentrate near a parametric family of distributions of choice with respect to a novel variant of the Wasserstein metric, which is then combined with a prior distribution on model parameters to obtain a robustified posterior. The proposed approach finds applications in a wide variety of robust inference problems, where we intend to perform inference on the parameters associated with the centering distribution in presence of outliers. Our proposed transport metric enjoys great computational simplicity, exploiting the Sinkhorn regularization for discrete optimal transport problems, and being inherently parallelizable. We demonstrate superior performance of our methodology when compared against state-of-the-art robust Bayesian inference methods. We also demonstrate equivalence of our approach with a nonparametric Bayesian formulation under a suitable asymptotic framework, testifying to its flexibility. The constrained entropy maximization that sits at the heart of our likelihood formulation finds its utility beyond robust Bayesian inference; an illustration is provided in a trustworthy machine learning application.
It is widely believed that a joint factor analysis of item responses and response time (RT) may yield more precise ability scores that are conventionally predicted from responses only. For this purpose, a simple-structure factor model is often preferred as it only requires specifying an additional measurement model for item-level RT while leaving the original item response theory (IRT) model for responses intact. The added speed factor indicated by item-level RT correlates with the ability factor in the IRT model, allowing RT data to carry additional information about respondents' ability. However, parametric simple-structure factor models are often restrictive and fit poorly to empirical data, which prompts under-confidence in the suitablity of a simple factor structure. In the present paper, we analyze the 2015 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) mathematics data using a semiparametric simple-structure model. We conclude that a simple factor structure attains a decent fit after further parametric assumptions in the measurement model are sufficiently relaxed. Furthermore, our semiparametric model implies that the association between latent ability and speed/slowness is strong in the population, but the form of association is nonlinear. It follows that scoring based on the fitted model can substantially improve the precision of ability scores.
Hierarchical learning algorithms that gradually approximate a solution to a data-driven optimization problem are essential to decision-making systems, especially under limitations on time and computational resources. In this study, we introduce a general-purpose hierarchical learning architecture that is based on the progressive partitioning of a possibly multi-resolution data space. The optimal partition is gradually approximated by solving a sequence of optimization sub-problems that yield a sequence of partitions with increasing number of subsets. We show that the solution of each optimization problem can be estimated online using gradient-free stochastic approximation updates. As a consequence, a function approximation problem can be defined within each subset of the partition and solved using the theory of two-timescale stochastic approximation algorithms. This simulates an annealing process and defines a robust and interpretable heuristic method to gradually increase the complexity of the learning architecture in a task-agnostic manner, giving emphasis to regions of the data space that are considered more important according to a predefined criterion. Finally, by imposing a tree structure in the progression of the partitions, we provide a means to incorporate potential multi-resolution structure of the data space into this approach, significantly reducing its complexity, while introducing hierarchical variable-rate feature extraction properties similar to certain classes of deep learning architectures. Asymptotic convergence analysis and experimental results are provided for supervised and unsupervised learning problems.
The linear regression model is widely used in the biomedical and social sciences as well as in policy and business research to adjust for covariates and estimate the average effects of treatments. Behind every causal inference endeavor there is at least a notion of a randomized experiment. However, in routine regression analyses in observational studies, it is unclear how well the adjustments made by regression approximate key features of randomization experiments, such as covariate balance, study representativeness, sample boundedness, and unweighted sampling. In this paper, we provide software to empirically address this question. In the new lmw package for R, we compute the implied linear model weights for average treatment effects and provide diagnostics for them. The weights are obtained as part of the design stage of the study; that is, without using outcome information. The implementation is general and applicable, for instance, in settings with instrumental variables and multi-valued treatments; in essence, in any situation where the linear model is the vehicle for adjustment and estimation of average treatment effects with discrete-valued interventions.
Cosmological parameters encoding our understanding of the expansion history of the Universe can be constrained by the accurate estimation of time delays arising in gravitationally lensed systems. We propose TD-CARMA, a Bayesian method to estimate cosmological time delays by modelling the observed and irregularly sampled light curves as realizations of a Continuous Auto-Regressive Moving Average (CARMA) process. Our model accounts for heteroskedastic measurement errors and microlensing, an additional source of independent extrinsic long-term variability in the source brightness. The semi-separable structure of the CARMA covariance matrix allows for fast and scalable likelihood computation using Gaussian Process modeling. We obtain a sample from the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters using a nested sampling approach. This allows for ``painless'' Bayesian Computation, dealing with the expected multi-modality of the posterior distribution in a straightforward manner and not requiring the specification of starting values or an initial guess for the time delay, unlike existing methods. In addition, the proposed sampling procedure automatically evaluates the Bayesian evidence, allowing us to perform principled Bayesian model selection. TD-CARMA is parsimonious, and typically includes no more than a dozen unknown parameters. We apply TD-CARMA to six doubly lensed quasars HS 2209+1914, SDSS J1001+5027, SDSS J1206+4332, SDSS J1515+1511, SDSS J1455+1447, SDSS J1349+1227, estimating their time delays as $-21.96 \pm 1.448$, $120.93 \pm 1.015$, $111.51 \pm 1.452$, $210.80 \pm 2.18$, $45.36 \pm 1.93$ and $432.05 \pm 1.950$ respectively. These estimates are consistent with those derived in the relevant literature, but are typically two to four times more precise.
This paper investigates the application of deep learning models for lung Computed Tomography (CT) image analysis. Traditional deep learning frameworks encounter compatibility issues due to variations in slice numbers and resolutions in CT images, which stem from the use of different machines. Commonly, individual slices are predicted and subsequently merged to obtain the final result; however, this approach lacks slice-wise feature learning and consequently results in decreased performance. We propose a novel slice selection method for each CT dataset to address this limitation, effectively filtering out uncertain slices and enhancing the model's performance. Furthermore, we introduce a spatial-slice feature learning (SSFL) technique\cite{hsu2022} that employs a conventional and efficient backbone model for slice feature training, followed by extracting one-dimensional data from the trained model for COVID and non-COVID classification using a dedicated classification model. Leveraging these experimental steps, we integrate one-dimensional features with multiple slices for channel merging and employ a 2D convolutional neural network (CNN) model for classification. In addition to the aforementioned methods, we explore various high-performance classification models, ultimately achieving promising results.
GaPT: Gaussian Process Toolkit for Online Regression with Application to Learning Quadrotor Dynamics
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are expressive models for capturing signal statistics and expressing prediction uncertainty. As a result, the robotics community has gathered interest in leveraging these methods for inference, planning, and control. Unfortunately, despite providing a closed-form inference solution, GPs are non-parametric models that typically scale cubically with the dataset size, hence making them difficult to be used especially on onboard Size, Weight, and Power (SWaP) constrained aerial robots. In addition, the integration of popular libraries with GPs for different kernels is not trivial. In this paper, we propose GaPT, a novel toolkit that converts GPs to their state space form and performs regression in linear time. GaPT is designed to be highly compatible with several optimizers popular in robotics. We thoroughly validate the proposed approach for learning quadrotor dynamics on both single and multiple input GP settings. GaPT accurately captures the system behavior in multiple flight regimes and operating conditions, including those producing highly nonlinear effects such as aerodynamic forces and rotor interactions. Moreover, the results demonstrate the superior computational performance of GaPT compared to a classical GP inference approach on both single and multi-input settings especially when considering large number of data points, enabling real-time regression speed on embedded platforms used on SWaP-constrained aerial robots.
Link prediction on knowledge graphs (KGs) is a key research topic. Previous work mainly focused on binary relations, paying less attention to higher-arity relations although they are ubiquitous in real-world KGs. This paper considers link prediction upon n-ary relational facts and proposes a graph-based approach to this task. The key to our approach is to represent the n-ary structure of a fact as a small heterogeneous graph, and model this graph with edge-biased fully-connected attention. The fully-connected attention captures universal inter-vertex interactions, while with edge-aware attentive biases to particularly encode the graph structure and its heterogeneity. In this fashion, our approach fully models global and local dependencies in each n-ary fact, and hence can more effectively capture associations therein. Extensive evaluation verifies the effectiveness and superiority of our approach. It performs substantially and consistently better than current state-of-the-art across a variety of n-ary relational benchmarks. Our code is publicly available.
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