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Blind source separation (BSS) aims to recover an unobserved signal $S$ from its mixture $X=f(S)$ under the condition that the effecting transformation $f$ is invertible but unknown. As this is a basic problem with many practical applications, a fundamental issue is to understand how the solutions to this problem behave when their supporting statistical prior assumptions are violated. In the classical context of linear mixtures, we present a general framework for analysing such violations and quantifying their impact on the blind recovery of $S$ from $X$. Modelling $S$ as a multidimensional stochastic process, we introduce an informative topology on the space of possible causes underlying a mixture $X$, and show that the behaviour of a generic BSS-solution in response to general deviations from its defining structural assumptions can be profitably analysed in the form of explicit continuity guarantees with respect to this topology. This allows for a flexible and convenient quantification of general model uncertainty scenarios and amounts to the first comprehensive robustness framework for BSS. Our approach is entirely constructive, and we demonstrate its utility with novel theoretical guarantees for a number of statistical applications.

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Classic no-regret online prediction algorithms, including variants of the Upper Confidence Bound ($\texttt{UCB}$) algorithm, $\texttt{Hedge}$, and $\texttt{EXP3}$, are inherently unfair by design. The unfairness stems from their very objective of playing the most rewarding arm as many times as possible while ignoring the less rewarding ones among $N$ arms. In this paper, we consider a fair prediction problem in the stochastic setting with hard lower bounds on the rate of accrual of rewards for a set of arms. We study the problem in both full and bandit feedback settings. Using queueing-theoretic techniques in conjunction with adversarial learning, we propose a new online prediction policy called $\texttt{BanditQ}$ that achieves the target reward rates while achieving a regret and target rate violation penalty of $O(T^{\frac{3}{4}}).$ In the full-information setting, the regret bound can be further improved to $O(\sqrt{T})$ when considering the average regret over the entire horizon of length $T$. The proposed policy is efficient and admits a black-box reduction from the fair prediction problem to the standard MAB problem with a carefully defined sequence of rewards. The design and analysis of the $\texttt{BanditQ}$ policy involve a novel use of the potential function method in conjunction with scale-free second-order regret bounds and a new self-bounding inequality for the reward gradients, which are of independent interest.

Auctions are modeled as Bayesian games with continuous type and action spaces. Determining equilibria in auction games is computationally hard in general and no exact solution theory is known. We introduce an algorithmic framework in which we discretize type and action space and then learn distributional strategies via online optimization algorithms. One advantage of distributional strategies is that we do not have to make any assumptions on the shape of the bid function. Besides, the expected utility of agents is linear in the strategies. It follows that if our optimization algorithms converge to a pure strategy, then they converge to an approximate equilibrium of the discretized game with high precision. Importantly, we show that the equilibrium of the discretized game approximates an equilibrium in the continuous game. In a wide variety of auction games, we provide empirical evidence that the approach approximates the analytical (pure) Bayes Nash equilibrium closely. This speed and precision is remarkable, because in many finite games learning dynamics do not converge or are even chaotic. In standard models where agents are symmetric, we find equilibrium in seconds. While we focus on dual averaging, we show that the overall approach converges independent of the regularizer and alternative online convex optimization methods achieve similar results, even though the discretized game neither satisfies monotonicity nor variational stability globally. The method allows for interdependent valuations and different types of utility functions and provides a foundation for broadly applicable equilibrium solvers that can push the boundaries of equilibrium analysis in auction markets and beyond.

Statistical models typically capture uncertainties in our knowledge of the corresponding real-world processes, however, it is less common for this uncertainty specification to capture uncertainty surrounding the values of the inputs to the model, which are often assumed known. We develop general modelling methodology with uncertain inputs in the context of the Bayes linear paradigm, which involves adjustment of second-order belief specifications over all quantities of interest only, without the requirement for probabilistic specifications. In particular, we propose an extension of commonly-employed second-order modelling assumptions to the case of uncertain inputs, with explicit implementation in the context of regression analysis, stochastic process modelling, and statistical emulation. We apply the methodology to a regression model for extracting aluminium by electrolysis, and emulation of the motivating epidemiological simulator chain to model the impact of an airborne infectious disease.

It is often desirable to summarise a probability measure on a space $X$ in terms of a mode, or MAP estimator, i.e.\ a point of maximum probability. Such points can be rigorously defined using masses of metric balls in the small-radius limit. However, the theory is not entirely straightforward: the literature contains multiple notions of mode and various examples of pathological measures that have no mode in any sense. Since the masses of balls induce natural orderings on the points of $X$, this article aims to shed light on some of the problems in non-parametric MAP estimation by taking an order-theoretic perspective, which appears to be a new one in the inverse problems community. This point of view opens up attractive proof strategies based upon the Cantor and Kuratowski intersection theorems; it also reveals that many of the pathologies arise from the distinction between greatest and maximal elements of an order, and from the existence of incomparable elements of $X$, which we show can be dense in $X$, even for an absolutely continuous measure on $X = \mathbb{R}$.

We introduce a priori Sobolev-space error estimates for the solution of nonlinear, and possibly parametric, PDEs using Gaussian process and kernel based methods. The primary assumptions are: (1) a continuous embedding of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space of the kernel into a Sobolev space of sufficient regularity; and (2) the stability of the differential operator and the solution map of the PDE between corresponding Sobolev spaces. The proof is articulated around Sobolev norm error estimates for kernel interpolants and relies on the minimizing norm property of the solution. The error estimates demonstrate dimension-benign convergence rates if the solution space of the PDE is smooth enough. We illustrate these points with applications to high-dimensional nonlinear elliptic PDEs and parametric PDEs. Although some recent machine learning methods have been presented as breaking the curse of dimensionality in solving high-dimensional PDEs, our analysis suggests a more nuanced picture: there is a trade-off between the regularity of the solution and the presence of the curse of dimensionality. Therefore, our results are in line with the understanding that the curse is absent when the solution is regular enough.

We consider a network of $n$ user nodes that receives updates from a source and employs an age-based gossip protocol for faster dissemination of version updates to all nodes. When a node forwards its packet to another node, the packet information gets mutated with probability $p$ during transmission, creating misinformation. The receiver node does not know whether an incoming packet information is different from the packet information originally at the sender node. We assume that truth prevails over misinformation, and therefore, when a receiver encounters both accurate information and misinformation corresponding to the same version, the accurate information gets chosen for storage at the node. We study the expected fraction of nodes with correct information in the network and version age at the nodes in this setting using stochastic hybrid systems (SHS) modelling and study their properties. We observe that very high or very low gossiping rates help curb misinformation, and misinformation spread is higher with moderate gossiping rates. We support our theoretical findings with simulation results which shed further light on the behavior of above quantities.

The ParaOpt algorithm was recently introduced as a time-parallel solver for optimal-control problems with a terminal-cost objective, and convergence results have been presented for the linear diffusive case with implicit-Euler time integrators. We reformulate ParaOpt for tracking problems and provide generalized convergence analyses for both objectives. We focus on linear diffusive equations and prove convergence bounds that are generic in the time integrators used. For large problem dimensions, ParaOpt's performance depends crucially on having a good preconditioner to solve the arising linear systems. For the case where ParaOpt's cheap, coarse-grained propagator is linear, we introduce diagonalization-based preconditioners inspired by recent advances in the ParaDiag family of methods. These preconditioners not only lead to a weakly-scalable ParaOpt version, but are themselves invertible in parallel, making maximal use of available concurrency. They have proven convergence properties in the linear diffusive case that are generic in the time discretization used, similarly to our ParaOpt results. Numerical results confirm that the iteration count of the iterative solvers used for ParaOpt's linear systems becomes constant in the limit of an increasing processor count. The paper is accompanied by a sequential MATLAB implementation.

We study multi-item profit maximization when there is an underlying distribution over buyers' values. In practice, a full description of the distribution is typically unavailable, so we study the setting where the mechanism designer only has samples from the distribution. If the designer uses the samples to optimize over a complex mechanism class -- such as the set of all multi-item, multi-buyer mechanisms -- a mechanism may have high average profit over the samples but low expected profit. This raises the central question of this paper: how many samples are sufficient to ensure that a mechanism's average profit is close to its expected profit? To answer this question, we uncover structure shared by many pricing, auction, and lottery mechanisms: for any set of buyers' values, profit is piecewise linear in the mechanism's parameters. Using this structure, we prove new bounds for mechanism classes not yet studied in the sample-based mechanism design literature and match or improve over the best-known guarantees for many classes.

Ptychography involves a sample being illuminated by a coherent, localised probe of illumination. When the probe interacts with the sample, the light is diffracted and a diffraction pattern is detected. Then the probe or sample is shifted laterally in space to illuminate a new area of the sample while ensuring there is sufficient overlap. Far-field Ptychography occurs when there is a large enough distance (when the Fresnel number is much greater than 1) to obtain magnitude-square Fourier transform measurements. In an attempt to remove ambiguities, masks are utilized to ensure unique outputs to any recovery algorithm are unique up to a global phase. In this paper, we assume that both the sample and the mask are unknown, and we apply blind deconvolutional techniques to solve for both. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the technique works well in practice, and is robust under noise.

Defect prediction is crucial for software quality assurance and has been extensively researched over recent decades. However, prior studies rarely focus on data complexity in defect prediction tasks, and even less on understanding the difficulties of these tasks from the perspective of data complexity. In this paper, we conduct an empirical study to estimate the hardness of over 33,000 instances, employing a set of measures to characterize the inherent difficulty of instances and the characteristics of defect datasets. Our findings indicate that: (1) instance hardness in both classes displays a right-skewed distribution, with the defective class exhibiting a more scattered distribution; (2) class overlap is the primary factor influencing instance hardness and can be characterized through feature, structural, instance, and multiresolution overlap; (3) no universal preprocessing technique is applicable to all datasets, and it may not consistently reduce data complexity, fortunately, dataset complexity measures can help identify suitable techniques for specific datasets; (4) integrating data complexity information into the learning process can enhance an algorithm's learning capacity. In summary, this empirical study highlights the crucial role of data complexity in defect prediction tasks, and provides a novel perspective for advancing research in defect prediction techniques.

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