Classic no-regret online prediction algorithms, including variants of the Upper Confidence Bound ($\texttt{UCB}$) algorithm, $\texttt{Hedge}$, and $\texttt{EXP3}$, are inherently unfair by design. The unfairness stems from their very objective of playing the most rewarding arm as many times as possible while ignoring the less rewarding ones among $N$ arms. In this paper, we consider a fair prediction problem in the stochastic setting with hard lower bounds on the rate of accrual of rewards for a set of arms. We study the problem in both full and bandit feedback settings. Using queueing-theoretic techniques in conjunction with adversarial learning, we propose a new online prediction policy called $\texttt{BanditQ}$ that achieves the target reward rates while achieving a regret and target rate violation penalty of $O(T^{\frac{3}{4}}).$ In the full-information setting, the regret bound can be further improved to $O(\sqrt{T})$ when considering the average regret over the entire horizon of length $T$. The proposed policy is efficient and admits a black-box reduction from the fair prediction problem to the standard MAB problem with a carefully defined sequence of rewards. The design and analysis of the $\texttt{BanditQ}$ policy involve a novel use of the potential function method in conjunction with scale-free second-order regret bounds and a new self-bounding inequality for the reward gradients, which are of independent interest.
Collecting and leveraging data with good coverage properties plays a crucial role in different aspects of reinforcement learning (RL), including reward-free exploration and offline learning. However, the notion of "good coverage" really depends on the application at hand, as data suitable for one context may not be so for another. In this paper, we formalize the problem of active coverage in episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs), where the goal is to interact with the environment so as to fulfill given sampling requirements. This framework is sufficiently flexible to specify any desired coverage property, making it applicable to any problem that involves online exploration. Our main contribution is an instance-dependent lower bound on the sample complexity of active coverage and a simple game-theoretic algorithm, CovGame, that nearly matches it. We then show that CovGame can be used as a building block to solve different PAC RL tasks. In particular, we obtain a simple algorithm for PAC reward-free exploration with an instance-dependent sample complexity that, in certain MDPs which are "easy to explore", is lower than the minimax one. By further coupling this exploration algorithm with a new technique to do implicit eliminations in policy space, we obtain a computationally-efficient algorithm for best-policy identification whose instance-dependent sample complexity scales with gaps between policy values.
In this study, we focus on learning Hamiltonian systems, which involves predicting the coordinate (q) and momentum (p) variables generated by a symplectic mapping. Based on Chen & Tao (2021), the symplectic mapping is represented by a generating function. To extend the prediction time period, we develop a new learning scheme by splitting the time series (q_i, p_i) into several partitions. We then train a large-step neural network (LSNN) to approximate the generating function between the first partition (i.e. the initial condition) and each one of the remaining partitions. This partition approach makes our LSNN effectively suppress the accumulative error when predicting the system evolution. Then we train the LSNN to learn the motions of the 2:3 resonant Kuiper belt objects for a long time period of 25000 yr. The results show that there are two significant improvements over the neural network constructed in our previous work (Li et al. 2022): (1) the conservation of the Jacobi integral, and (2) the highly accurate predictions of the orbital evolution. Overall, we propose that the designed LSNN has the potential to considerably improve predictions of the long-term evolution of more general Hamiltonian systems.
We consider the problem of online allocation subject to a long-term fairness penalty. Contrary to existing works, however, we do not assume that the decision-maker observes the protected attributes -- which is often unrealistic in practice. Instead they can purchase data that help estimate them from sources of different quality; and hence reduce the fairness penalty at some cost. We model this problem as a multi-armed bandit problem where each arm corresponds to the choice of a data source, coupled with the online allocation problem. We propose an algorithm that jointly solves both problems and show that it has a regret bounded by $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T})$. A key difficulty is that the rewards received by selecting a source are correlated by the fairness penalty, which leads to a need for randomization (despite a stochastic setting). Our algorithm takes into account contextual information available before the source selection, and can adapt to many different fairness notions. We also show that in some instances, the estimates used can be learned on the fly.
This paper investigates the best arm identification (BAI) problem in stochastic multi-armed bandits in the fixed confidence setting. The general class of the exponential family of bandits is considered. The existing algorithms for the exponential family of bandits face computational challenges. To mitigate these challenges, the BAI problem is viewed and analyzed as a sequential composite hypothesis testing task, and a framework is proposed that adopts the likelihood ratio-based tests known to be effective for sequential testing. Based on this test statistic, a BAI algorithm is designed that leverages the canonical sequential probability ratio tests for arm selection and is amenable to tractable analysis for the exponential family of bandits. This algorithm has two key features: (1) its sample complexity is asymptotically optimal, and (2) it is guaranteed to be $\delta-$PAC. Existing efficient approaches focus on the Gaussian setting and require Thompson sampling for the arm deemed the best and the challenger arm. Additionally, this paper analytically quantifies the computational expense of identifying the challenger in an existing approach. Finally, numerical experiments are provided to support the analysis.
Batch reinforcement learning (RL) aims at leveraging pre-collected data to find an optimal policy that maximizes the expected total rewards in a dynamic environment. Nearly all existing algorithms rely on the absolutely continuous assumption on the distribution induced by target policies with respect to the data distribution, so that the batch data can be used to calibrate target policies via the change of measure. However, the absolute continuity assumption could be violated in practice (e.g., no-overlap support), especially when the state-action space is large or continuous. In this paper, we propose a new batch RL algorithm without requiring absolute continuity in the setting of an infinite-horizon Markov decision process with continuous states and actions. We call our algorithm STEEL: SingulariTy-awarE rEinforcement Learning. Our algorithm is motivated by a new error analysis on off-policy evaluation, where we use maximum mean discrepancy, together with distributionally robust optimization, to characterize the error of off-policy evaluation caused by the possible singularity and to enable model extrapolation. By leveraging the idea of pessimism and under some mild conditions, we derive a finite-sample regret guarantee for our proposed algorithm without imposing absolute continuity. Compared with existing algorithms, by requiring only minimal data-coverage assumption, STEEL significantly improves the applicability and robustness of batch RL. Extensive simulation studies and one real experiment on personalized pricing demonstrate the superior performance of our method in dealing with possible singularity in batch RL.
This paper investigates a hitherto unaddressed aspect of best arm identification (BAI) in stochastic multi-armed bandits in the fixed-confidence setting. Two key metrics for assessing bandit algorithms are computational efficiency and performance optimality (e.g., in sample complexity). In stochastic BAI literature, there have been advances in designing algorithms to achieve optimal performance, but they are generally computationally expensive to implement (e.g., optimization-based methods). There also exist approaches with high computational efficiency, but they have provable gaps to the optimal performance (e.g., the $\beta$-optimal approaches in top-two methods). This paper introduces a framework and an algorithm for BAI that achieves optimal performance with a computationally efficient set of decision rules. The central process that facilitates this is a routine for sequentially estimating the optimal allocations up to sufficient fidelity. Specifically, these estimates are accurate enough for identifying the best arm (hence, achieving optimality) but not overly accurate to an unnecessary extent that creates excessive computational complexity (hence, maintaining efficiency). Furthermore, the existing relevant literature focuses on the family of exponential distributions. This paper considers a more general setting of any arbitrary family of distributions parameterized by their mean values (under mild regularity conditions). The optimality is established analytically, and numerical evaluations are provided to assess the analytical guarantees and compare the performance with those of the existing ones.
Reinforcement learning often needs to deal with the exponential growth of states and actions when exploring optimal control in high-dimensional spaces (often known as the curse of dimensionality). In this work, we address this issue by learning the inherent structure of action-wise similar MDP to appropriately balance the performance degradation versus sample/computational complexity. In particular, we partition the action spaces into multiple groups based on the similarity in transition distribution and reward function, and build a linear decomposition model to capture the difference between the intra-group transition kernel and the intra-group rewards. Both our theoretical analysis and experiments reveal a \emph{surprising and counter-intuitive result}: while a more refined grouping strategy can reduce the approximation error caused by treating actions in the same group as identical, it also leads to increased estimation error when the size of samples or the computation resources is limited. This finding highlights the grouping strategy as a new degree of freedom that can be optimized to minimize the overall performance loss. To address this issue, we formulate a general optimization problem for determining the optimal grouping strategy, which strikes a balance between performance loss and sample/computational complexity. We further propose a computationally efficient method for selecting a nearly-optimal grouping strategy, which maintains its computational complexity independent of the size of the action space.
Information Retrieval (IR) and Recommender Systems (RS) tasks are moving from computing a ranking of final results based on a single metric to multi-objective problems. Solving these problems leads to a set of Pareto-optimal solutions, known as Pareto frontier, in which no objective can be further improved without hurting the others. In principle, all the points on the Pareto frontier are potential candidates to represent the best model selected with respect to the combination of two, or more, metrics. To our knowledge, there are no well-recognized strategies to decide which point should be selected on the frontier. In this paper, we propose a novel, post-hoc, theoretically-justified technique, named "Population Distance from Utopia" (PDU), to identify and select the one-best Pareto-optimal solution from the frontier. In detail, PDU analyzes the distribution of the points by investigating how far each point is from its utopia point (the ideal performance for the objectives). The possibility of considering fine-grained utopia points allows PDU to select solutions tailored to individual user preferences, a novel feature we call "calibration". We compare PDU against existing state-of-the-art strategies through extensive experiments on tasks from both IR and RS. Experimental results show that PDU and combined with calibration notably impact the solution selection. Furthermore, the results show that the proposed framework selects a solution in a principled way, irrespective of its position on the frontier, thus overcoming the limits of other strategies.
Despite the significant interest and progress in reinforcement learning (RL) problems with adversarial corruption, current works are either confined to the linear setting or lead to an undesired $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T}\zeta)$ regret bound, where $T$ is the number of rounds and $\zeta$ is the total amount of corruption. In this paper, we consider the contextual bandit with general function approximation and propose a computationally efficient algorithm to achieve a regret of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T}+\zeta)$. The proposed algorithm relies on the recently developed uncertainty-weighted least-squares regression from linear contextual bandit and a new weighted estimator of uncertainty for the general function class. In contrast to the existing analysis that heavily relies on the linear structure, we develop a novel technique to control the sum of weighted uncertainty, thus establishing the final regret bounds. We then generalize our algorithm to the episodic MDP setting and first achieve an additive dependence on the corruption level $\zeta$ in the scenario of general function approximation. Notably, our algorithms achieve regret bounds either nearly match the performance lower bound or improve the existing methods for all the corruption levels and in both known and unknown $\zeta$ cases.
Although Transformer-based methods have significantly improved state-of-the-art results for long-term series forecasting, they are not only computationally expensive but more importantly, are unable to capture the global view of time series (e.g. overall trend). To address these problems, we propose to combine Transformer with the seasonal-trend decomposition method, in which the decomposition method captures the global profile of time series while Transformers capture more detailed structures. To further enhance the performance of Transformer for long-term prediction, we exploit the fact that most time series tend to have a sparse representation in well-known basis such as Fourier transform, and develop a frequency enhanced Transformer. Besides being more effective, the proposed method, termed as Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer ({\bf FEDformer}), is more efficient than standard Transformer with a linear complexity to the sequence length. Our empirical studies with six benchmark datasets show that compared with state-of-the-art methods, FEDformer can reduce prediction error by $14.8\%$ and $22.6\%$ for multivariate and univariate time series, respectively. the code will be released soon.