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Graph neural networks (GNNs) are widely used for modeling complex interactions between entities represented as vertices of a graph. Despite recent efforts to theoretically analyze the expressive power of GNNs, a formal characterization of their ability to model interactions is lacking. The current paper aims to address this gap. Formalizing strength of interactions through an established measure known as separation rank, we quantify the ability of certain GNNs to model interaction between a given subset of vertices and its complement, i.e. between sides of a given partition of input vertices. Our results reveal that the ability to model interaction is primarily determined by the partition's walk index -- a graph-theoretical characteristic that we define by the number of walks originating from the boundary of the partition. Experiments with common GNN architectures corroborate this finding. As a practical application of our theory, we design an edge sparsification algorithm named Walk Index Sparsification (WIS), which preserves the ability of a GNN to model interactions when input edges are removed. WIS is simple, computationally efficient, and markedly outperforms alternative methods in terms of induced prediction accuracy. More broadly, it showcases the potential of improving GNNs by theoretically analyzing the interactions they can model.

The selection of smoothing parameter is central to the estimation of penalized splines. The best value of the smoothing parameter is often the one that optimizes a smoothness selection criterion, such as generalized cross-validation error (GCV) and restricted likelihood (REML). To correctly identify the global optimum rather than being trapped in an undesired local optimum, grid search is recommended for optimization. Unfortunately, the grid search method requires a pre-specified search interval that contains the unknown global optimum, yet no guideline is available for providing this interval. As a result, practitioners have to find it by trial and error. To overcome such difficulty, we develop novel algorithms to automatically find this interval. Our automatic search interval has four advantages. (i) It specifies a smoothing parameter range where the associated penalized least squares problem is numerically solvable. (ii) It is criterion-independent so that different criteria, such as GCV and REML, can be explored on the same parameter range. (iii) It is sufficiently wide to contain the global optimum of any criterion, so that for example, the global minimum of GCV and the global maximum of REML can both be identified. (iv) It is computationally cheap compared with the grid search itself, carrying no extra computational burden in practice. Our method is ready to use through our recently developed R package gps (>= version 1.1). It may be embedded in more advanced statistical modeling methods that rely on penalized splines.

This article develops a convex description of a classical or quantum learner's or agent's state of knowledge about its environment, presented as a convex subset of a commutative R-algebra. With caveats, this leads to a generalization of certain semidefinite programs in quantum information (such as those describing the universal query algorithm dual to the quantum adversary bound, related to optimal learning or control of the environment) to the classical and faulty-quantum setting, which would not be possible with a naive description via joint probability distributions over environment and internal memory. More philosophically, it also makes an interpretation of the set of reduced density matrices as "states of knowledge" of an observer of its environment, related to these techniques, more explicit. As another example, I describe and solve a formal differential equation of states of knowledge in that algebra, where an agent obtains experimental data in a Poissonian process, and its state of knowledge evolves as an exponential power series. However, this framework currently lacks impressive applications, and I post it in part to solicit feedback and collaboration on those. In particular, it may be possible to develop it into a new framework for the design of experiments, e.g. the problem of finding maximally informative questions to ask human labelers or the environment in machine-learning problems. The parts of the article not related to quantum information don't assume knowledge of it.

We develop a novel Monte Carlo algorithm for the vector consisting of the supremum, the time at which the supremum is attained and the position at a given (constant) time of an exponentially tempered L\'evy process. The algorithm, based on the increments of the process without tempering, converges geometrically fast (as a function of the computational cost) for discontinuous and locally Lipschitz functions of the vector. We prove that the corresponding multilevel Monte Carlo estimator has optimal computational complexity (i.e. of order $\varepsilon^{-2}$ if the mean squared error is at most $\varepsilon^2$) and provide its central limit theorem (CLT). Using the CLT we construct confidence intervals for barrier option prices and various risk measures based on drawdown under the tempered stable (CGMY) model calibrated/estimated on real-world data. We provide non-asymptotic and asymptotic comparisons of our algorithm with existing approximations, leading to rule-of-thumb guidelines for users to the best method for a given set of parameters. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm with numerical examples.

Agent-based model (ABM) has been widely used to study infectious disease transmission by simulating behaviors and interactions of autonomous individuals called agents. In the ABM, agent states, for example infected or susceptible, are assigned according to a set of simple rules, and a complex dynamics of disease transmission is described by the collective states of agents over time. Despite the flexibility in real-world modeling, ABMs have received less attention by statisticians because of the intractable likelihood functions which lead to difficulty in estimating parameters and quantifying uncertainty around model outputs. To overcome this limitation, we propose to treat the entire system as a Hidden Markov Model and develop the ABM for infectious disease transmission within the Bayesian framework. The hidden states in the model are represented by individual agent's states over time. We estimate the hidden states and the parameters associated with the model by applying particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Performance of the approach for parameter recovery and prediction along with sensitivity to prior assumptions are evaluated under various simulation conditions. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to the study of COVID-19 outbreak on Diamond Princess cruise ship and examine the differences in transmission by key demographic characteristics, while considering different network structures and the limitations of COVID-19 testing in the cruise.

We study a natural extension of classical empirical risk minimization, where the hypothesis space is a random subspace of a given space. In particular, we consider possibly data dependent subspaces spanned by a random subset of the data, recovering as a special case Nystrom approaches for kernel methods. Considering random subspaces naturally leads to computational savings, but the question is whether the corresponding learning accuracy is degraded. These statistical-computational tradeoffs have been recently explored for the least squares loss and self-concordant loss functions, such as the logistic loss. Here, we work to extend these results to convex Lipschitz loss functions, that might not be smooth, such as the hinge loss used in support vector machines. This unified analysis requires developing new proofs, that use different technical tools, such as sub-gaussian inputs, to achieve fast rates. Our main results show the existence of different settings, depending on how hard the learning problem is, for which computational efficiency can be improved with no loss in performance.

The optimal liability framework for AI systems remains an unsolved problem across the globe. In a much-anticipated move, the European Commission advanced two proposals outlining the European approach to AI liability in September 2022: a novel AI Liability Directive and a revision of the Product Liability Directive. They constitute the final, and much-anticipated, cornerstone of AI regulation in the EU. Crucially, the liability proposals and the EU AI Act are inherently intertwined: the latter does not contain any individual rights of affected persons, and the former lack specific, substantive rules on AI development and deployment. Taken together, these acts may well trigger a Brussels effect in AI regulation, with significant consequences for the US and other countries. This paper makes three novel contributions. First, it examines in detail the Commission proposals and shows that, while making steps in the right direction, they ultimately represent a half-hearted approach: if enacted as foreseen, AI liability in the EU will primarily rest on disclosure of evidence mechanisms and a set of narrowly defined presumptions concerning fault, defectiveness and causality. Hence, second, the article suggests amendments, which are collected in an Annex at the end of the paper. Third, based on an analysis of the key risks AI poses, the final part of the paper maps out a road for the future of AI liability and regulation, in the EU and beyond. This includes: a comprehensive framework for AI liability; provisions to support innovation; an extension to non-discrimination/algorithmic fairness, as well as explainable AI; and sustainability. I propose to jump-start sustainable AI regulation via sustainability impact assessments in the AI Act and sustainable design defects in the liability regime. In this way, the law may help spur not only fair AI and XAI, but potentially also sustainable AI (SAI).

Various types of Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) methods have been developed, assuming that agents' policies are based on true states. Recent works have improved the robustness of MARL under uncertainties from the reward, transition probability, or other partners' policies. However, in real-world multi-agent systems, state estimations may be perturbed by sensor measurement noise or even adversaries. Agents' policies trained with only true state information will deviate from optimal solutions when facing adversarial state perturbations during execution. MARL under adversarial state perturbations has limited study. Hence, in this work, we propose a State-Adversarial Markov Game (SAMG) and make the first attempt to study the fundamental properties of MARL under state uncertainties. We prove that the optimal agent policy and the robust Nash equilibrium do not always exist for an SAMG. Instead, we define the solution concept, robust agent policy, of the proposed SAMG under adversarial state perturbations, where agents want to maximize the worst-case expected state value. We then design a gradient descent ascent-based robust MARL algorithm to learn the robust policies for the MARL agents. Our experiments show that adversarial state perturbations decrease agents' rewards for several baselines from the existing literature, while our algorithm outperforms baselines with state perturbations and significantly improves the robustness of the MARL policies under state uncertainties.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.