Intensive longitudinal (IL) data are increasingly prevalent in psychological science, coinciding with technological advancements that make it simple to deploy study designs such as daily diary and ecological momentary assessments. IL data are characterized by a rapid rate of data collection (1+ collections per day), over a period of time, allowing for the capture of the dynamics that underlie psychological and behavioral processes. One powerful framework for analyzing IL data is state-space modeling, where observed variables are considered measurements for underlying states (i.e., latent variables) that change together over time. However, state-space modeling has typically relied on continuous measurements, whereas psychological data often comes in the form of ordinal measurements such as Likert scale items. In this manuscript, we develop a general estimating approach for state-space models with ordinal measurements, specifically focusing on a graded response model for Likert scale items. We evaluate the performance of our model and estimator against that of the commonly used ``linear approximation'' model, which treats ordinal measurements as though they are continuous. We find that our model resulted in unbiased estimates of the state dynamics, while the linear approximation resulted in strongly biased estimates of the state dynamics
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This paper provides an introductory overview of how one may employ importance sampling effectively as a tool for solving stochastic optimization formulations incorporating tail risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk. Approximating the tail risk measure by its sample average approximation, while appealing due to its simplicity and universality in use, requires a large number of samples to be able to arrive at risk-minimizing decisions with high confidence. This is primarily due to the rarity with which the relevant tail events get observed in the samples. In simulation, Importance Sampling is among the most prominent methods for substantially reducing the sample requirement while estimating probabilities of rare events. Can importance sampling be used for optimization as well? If so, what are the ingredients required for making importance sampling an effective tool for optimization formulations involving rare events? This tutorial aims to provide an introductory overview of the two key ingredients in this regard, namely, (i) how one may arrive at an importance sampling change of measure prescription at every decision, and (ii) the prominent techniques available for integrating such a prescription within a solution paradigm for stochastic optimization formulations.
Federated learning (FL) has garnered considerable attention due to its privacy-preserving feature. Nonetheless, the lack of freedom in managing user data can lead to group fairness issues, where models might be biased towards sensitive factors such as race or gender, even if they are trained using a legally compliant process. To redress this concern, this paper proposes a novel FL algorithm designed explicitly to address group fairness issues. We show empirically on CelebA and ImSitu datasets that the proposed method can improve fairness both quantitatively and qualitatively with minimal loss in accuracy in the presence of statistical heterogeneity and with different numbers of clients. Besides improving fairness, the proposed FL algorithm is compatible with local differential privacy (LDP), has negligible communication costs, and results in minimal overhead when migrating existing FL systems from the common FL protocol such as FederatedAveraging (FedAvg). We also provide the theoretical convergence rate guarantee for the proposed algorithm and the required noise level of the Gaussian mechanism to achieve desired LDP. This innovative approach holds significant potential to enhance the fairness and effectiveness of FL systems, particularly in sensitive applications such as healthcare or criminal justice.
This article inspects whether a multivariate distribution is different from a specified distribution or not, and it also tests the equality of two multivariate distributions. In the course of this study, a graphical tool-kit using well-known half-spaced depth based information criteria is proposed, which is a two-dimensional plot, regardless of the dimension of the data, and it is even useful in comparing high-dimensional distributions. The simple interpretability of the proposed graphical tool-kit motivates us to formulate test statistics to carry out the corresponding testing of hypothesis problems. It is established that the proposed tests based on the same information criteria are consistent, and moreover, the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics under contiguous/local alternatives are derived, which enable us to compute the asymptotic power of these tests. Furthermore, it is observed that the computations associated with the proposed tests are unburdensome. Besides, these tests perform better than many other tests available in the literature when data are generated from various distributions such as heavy tailed distributions, which indicates that the proposed methodology is robust as well. Finally, the usefulness of the proposed graphical tool-kit and tests is shown on two benchmark real data sets.
Classical physical modelling with associated numerical simulation (model-based), and prognostic methods based on the analysis of large amounts of data (data-driven) are the two most common methods used for the mapping of complex physical processes. In recent years, the efficient combination of these approaches has become increasingly important. Continuum mechanics in the core consists of conservation equations that -- in addition to the always necessary specification of the process conditions -- can be supplemented by phenomenological material models. The latter are an idealized image of the specific material behavior that can be determined experimentally, empirically, and based on a wealth of expert knowledge. The more complex the material, the more difficult the calibration is. This situation forms the starting point for this work's hybrid data-driven and model-based approach for mapping a complex physical process in continuum mechanics. Specifically, we use data generated from a classical physical model by the MESHFREE software to train a Principal Component Analysis-based neural network (PCA-NN) for the task of parameter identification of the material model parameters. The obtained results highlight the potential of deep-learning-based hybrid models for determining parameters, which are the key to characterizing materials occurring naturally, and their use in industrial applications (e.g. the interaction of vehicles with sand).
We study the problem of deploying a fleet of mobile robots to service tasks that arrive stochastically over time and at random locations in an environment. This is known as the Dynamic Vehicle Routing Problem (DVRP) and requires robots to allocate incoming tasks among themselves and find an optimal sequence for each robot. State-of-the-art approaches only consider average wait times and focus on high-load scenarios where the arrival rate of tasks approaches the limit of what can be handled by the robots while keeping the queue of unserviced tasks bounded, i.e., stable. To ensure stability, these approaches repeatedly compute minimum distance tours over a set of newly arrived tasks. This paper is aimed at addressing the missing policies for moderate-load scenarios, where quality of service can be improved by prioritizing long-waiting tasks. We introduce a novel DVRP policy based on a cost function that takes the $p$-norm over accumulated wait times and show it guarantees stability even in high-load scenarios. We demonstrate that the proposed policy outperforms the state-of-the-art in both mean and $95^{th}$ percentile wait times in moderate-load scenarios through simulation experiments in the Euclidean plane as well as using real-world data for city scale service requests.
We propose a novel framework for analyzing the dynamics of distribution shift in real-world systems that captures the feedback loop between learning algorithms and the distributions on which they are deployed. Prior work largely models feedback-induced distribution shift as adversarial or via an overly simplistic distribution-shift structure. In contrast, we propose a coupled partial differential equation model that captures fine-grained changes in the distribution over time by accounting for complex dynamics that arise due to strategic responses to algorithmic decision-making, non-local endogenous population interactions, and other exogenous sources of distribution shift. We consider two common settings in machine learning: cooperative settings with information asymmetries, and competitive settings where a learner faces strategic users. For both of these settings, when the algorithm retrains via gradient descent, we prove asymptotic convergence of the retraining procedure to a steady-state, both in finite and in infinite dimensions, obtaining explicit rates in terms of the model parameters. To do so we derive new results on the convergence of coupled PDEs that extends what is known on multi-species systems. Empirically, we show that our approach captures well-documented forms of distribution shifts like polarization and disparate impacts that simpler models cannot capture.
Car-following behavior modeling is critical for understanding traffic flow dynamics and developing high-fidelity microscopic simulation models. Most existing impulse-response car-following models prioritize computational efficiency and interpretability by using a parsimonious nonlinear function based on immediate preceding state observations. However, this approach disregards historical information, limiting its ability to explain real-world driving data. Consequently, serially correlated residuals are commonly observed when calibrating these models with actual trajectory data, hindering their ability to capture complex and stochastic phenomena. To address this limitation, we propose a dynamic regression framework incorporating time series models, such as autoregressive processes, to capture error dynamics. This statistically rigorous calibration outperforms the simple assumption of independent errors and enables more accurate simulation and prediction by leveraging higher-order historical information. We validate the effectiveness of our framework using HighD and OpenACC data, demonstrating improved probabilistic simulations. In summary, our framework preserves the parsimonious nature of traditional car-following models while offering enhanced probabilistic simulations.
With global demand for animal products projected to increase significantly by 2050, understanding the factors that influence the adoption of smart livestock technologies has become increasingly crucial. Conducted within the unique agricultural context of Japan, our study builds upon traditional theoretical frameworks that often oversimplify farmers' decision-making processes. By employing a scoping review, expert interviews, and a Modified Grounded Theory Approach, our research uncovers the intricate interplay between individual farmer values, farm management policies, social relations, agricultural policies, and livestock industry trends. We particularly highlight the unique dynamics within family-owned businesses, noting the tension between an "advanced management mindset" and "conservatism." Our study underscores technology adoption's sequential and iterative nature, intricately tied to technology availability, farmers' digital literacy, technology implementation support, and observable technology impacts on animal health and productivity. Despite certain limitations, our findings carry profound implications for stakeholders, providing valuable insights to overcome adoption barriers and advocating for more sustainable, efficient, and animal welfare-oriented livestock production systems. This research establishes a solid foundation for future explorations into smart livestock technology adoption.
Counterspeech offers direct rebuttals to hateful speech by challenging perpetrators of hate and showing support to targets of abuse. It provides a promising alternative to more contentious measures, such as content moderation and deplatforming, by contributing a greater amount of positive online speech rather than attempting to mitigate harmful content through removal. Advances in the development of large language models mean that the process of producing counterspeech could be made more efficient by automating its generation, which would enable large-scale online campaigns. However, we currently lack a systematic understanding of several important factors relating to the efficacy of counterspeech for hate mitigation, such as which types of counterspeech are most effective, what are the optimal conditions for implementation, and which specific effects of hate it can best ameliorate. This paper aims to fill this gap by systematically reviewing counterspeech research in the social sciences and comparing methodologies and findings with computer science efforts in automatic counterspeech generation. By taking this multi-disciplinary view, we identify promising future directions in both fields.
AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.
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