This paper proposes a novel method for demand forecasting in a pricing context. Here, modeling the causal relationship between price as an input variable to demand is crucial because retailers aim to set prices in a (profit) optimal manner in a downstream decision making problem. Our methods bring together the Double Machine Learning methodology for causal inference and state-of-the-art transformer-based forecasting models. In extensive empirical experiments, we show on the one hand that our method estimates the causal effect better in a fully controlled setting via synthetic, yet realistic data. On the other hand, we demonstrate on real-world data that our method outperforms forecasting methods in off-policy settings (i.e., when there's a change in the pricing policy) while only slightly trailing in the on-policy setting.
This paper introduces an iterative algorithm for training additive models that enjoys favorable memory storage and computational requirements. The algorithm can be viewed as the functional counterpart of stochastic gradient descent, applied to the coefficients of a truncated basis expansion of the component functions. We show that the resulting estimator satisfies an oracle inequality that allows for model mis-specification. In the well-specified setting, by choosing the learning rate carefully across three distinct stages of training, we demonstrate that its risk is minimax optimal in terms of the dependence on the dimensionality of the data and the size of the training sample. We further illustrate the computational benefits by comparing the approach with traditional backfitting on two real-world datasets.
This chapter describes several control variate methods for improving estimates of expectations from MCMC.
This paper addresses the gradient coding and coded matrix multiplication problems in distributed optimization and coded computing. We present a numerically stable binary coding method which overcomes the drawbacks of the \textit{Fractional Repetition Coding} gradient coding method proposed by Tandon et al., and can also be leveraged by coded computing networks whose servers are of heterogeneous nature. Specifically, we propose a construction for fractional repetition gradient coding; while ensuring that the generator matrix remains close to perfectly balanced for any set of coded parameters, as well as a low complexity decoding step. The proposed binary encoding avoids operations over the real and complex numbers which are inherently numerically unstable, thereby enabling numerically stable distributed encodings of the partial gradients. We then make connections between gradient coding and coded matrix multiplication. Specifically, we show that any gradient coding scheme can be extended to coded matrix multiplication. Furthermore, we show how the proposed binary gradient coding scheme can be used to construct two different coded matrix multiplication schemes, each achieving different trade-offs.
Undoing computations of a concurrent system is beneficial in many situations, e.g., in reversible debugging of multi-threaded programs and in recovery from errors due to optimistic execution in parallel discrete event simulation. A number of approaches have been proposed for how to reverse formal models of concurrent computation including process calculi such as CCS, languages like Erlang, and abstract models such as prime event structures and occurrence nets. However it has not been settled what properties a reversible system should enjoy, nor how the various properties that have been suggested, such as the parabolic lemma and the causal-consistency property, are related. We contribute to a solution to these issues by using a generic labelled transition system equipped with a relation capturing whether transitions are independent to explore the implications between various reversibility properties. In particular, we show how all properties we consider are derivable from a set of axioms. Our intention is that when establishing properties of some formalism it will be easier to verify the axioms rather than proving properties such as the parabolic lemma directly. We also introduce two new properties related to causal consistent reversibility, namely causal liveness and causal safety, stating, respectively, that an action can be undone if (causal liveness) and only if (causal safety) it is independent from all the following actions. These properties come in three flavours: defined in terms of independent transitions, independent events, or via an ordering on events. Both causal liveness and causal safety are derivable from our axioms.
Humans perceive the world by concurrently processing and fusing high-dimensional inputs from multiple modalities such as vision and audio. Machine perception models, in stark contrast, are typically modality-specific and optimised for unimodal benchmarks, and hence late-stage fusion of final representations or predictions from each modality (`late-fusion') is still a dominant paradigm for multimodal video classification. Instead, we introduce a novel transformer based architecture that uses `fusion bottlenecks' for modality fusion at multiple layers. Compared to traditional pairwise self-attention, our model forces information between different modalities to pass through a small number of bottleneck latents, requiring the model to collate and condense the most relevant information in each modality and only share what is necessary. We find that such a strategy improves fusion performance, at the same time reducing computational cost. We conduct thorough ablation studies, and achieve state-of-the-art results on multiple audio-visual classification benchmarks including Audioset, Epic-Kitchens and VGGSound. All code and models will be released.
Data augmentation has been widely used to improve generalizability of machine learning models. However, comparatively little work studies data augmentation for graphs. This is largely due to the complex, non-Euclidean structure of graphs, which limits possible manipulation operations. Augmentation operations commonly used in vision and language have no analogs for graphs. Our work studies graph data augmentation for graph neural networks (GNNs) in the context of improving semi-supervised node-classification. We discuss practical and theoretical motivations, considerations and strategies for graph data augmentation. Our work shows that neural edge predictors can effectively encode class-homophilic structure to promote intra-class edges and demote inter-class edges in given graph structure, and our main contribution introduces the GAug graph data augmentation framework, which leverages these insights to improve performance in GNN-based node classification via edge prediction. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks show that augmentation via GAug improves performance across GNN architectures and datasets.
Graphical causal inference as pioneered by Judea Pearl arose from research on artificial intelligence (AI), and for a long time had little connection to the field of machine learning. This article discusses where links have been and should be established, introducing key concepts along the way. It argues that the hard open problems of machine learning and AI are intrinsically related to causality, and explains how the field is beginning to understand them.
Embedding entities and relations into a continuous multi-dimensional vector space have become the dominant method for knowledge graph embedding in representation learning. However, most existing models ignore to represent hierarchical knowledge, such as the similarities and dissimilarities of entities in one domain. We proposed to learn a Domain Representations over existing knowledge graph embedding models, such that entities that have similar attributes are organized into the same domain. Such hierarchical knowledge of domains can give further evidence in link prediction. Experimental results show that domain embeddings give a significant improvement over the most recent state-of-art baseline knowledge graph embedding models.
Benefit from the quick development of deep learning techniques, salient object detection has achieved remarkable progresses recently. However, there still exists following two major challenges that hinder its application in embedded devices, low resolution output and heavy model weight. To this end, this paper presents an accurate yet compact deep network for efficient salient object detection. More specifically, given a coarse saliency prediction in the deepest layer, we first employ residual learning to learn side-output residual features for saliency refinement, which can be achieved with very limited convolutional parameters while keep accuracy. Secondly, we further propose reverse attention to guide such side-output residual learning in a top-down manner. By erasing the current predicted salient regions from side-output features, the network can eventually explore the missing object parts and details which results in high resolution and accuracy. Experiments on six benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed approach compares favorably against state-of-the-art methods, and with advantages in terms of simplicity, efficiency (45 FPS) and model size (81 MB).
In this paper, we propose a conceptually simple and geometrically interpretable objective function, i.e. additive margin Softmax (AM-Softmax), for deep face verification. In general, the face verification task can be viewed as a metric learning problem, so learning large-margin face features whose intra-class variation is small and inter-class difference is large is of great importance in order to achieve good performance. Recently, Large-margin Softmax and Angular Softmax have been proposed to incorporate the angular margin in a multiplicative manner. In this work, we introduce a novel additive angular margin for the Softmax loss, which is intuitively appealing and more interpretable than the existing works. We also emphasize and discuss the importance of feature normalization in the paper. Most importantly, our experiments on LFW BLUFR and MegaFace show that our additive margin softmax loss consistently performs better than the current state-of-the-art methods using the same network architecture and training dataset. Our code has also been made available at //github.com/happynear/AMSoftmax